World Politics · resolved market
Will the CDU/CSU win between 32% and 34% of the vote in the German election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf0c40f871be43fa6c495564d4459b96e525f2075e470a628d811c69fe3a544f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $284,455
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $264,281
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $284,455 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd228…997bbacked Yes | 0c | 64,628$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa068…6b89backed Yes | 0c | 55,011$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.02 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb436…8258backed Yes | 6c | 5,249$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…7ce4backed Yes | 21c | 5,101$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.93 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…18cdbacked Yes | 1c | 3,107$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 21c | 2,648$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.04 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…25f5backed Yes | 12c | 1,220$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92d9…4c5ebacked No | 80c | 1,000$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.55 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39c8…6e68backed Yes | 9c | 871.64$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.16 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 4c | 833.61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02d2…d91fbacked Yes | 14c | 831.86$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…195bbacked Yes | 11c | 731.39$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.51 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 21c | 640$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 20c | 552.71$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.54 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…ac6ebacked Yes | 11c | 440.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4c…1ca9backed Yes | 22c | 439.74$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34a4…4cc7backed Yes | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdab5…bdb7backed Yes | 17c | 376.74$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe991…10f5backed Yes | 14c | 351.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…be5ebacked Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fae…6378backed Yes | 26c | 280$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 19c | 264.79$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 9c | 252.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 125 | 6.4%8 W · 117 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2af6…b030backed Yes | 16c | 234$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 16c | 210$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfab9…60b2backed Yes | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 18c | 122.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78cf…bef6backed Yes | 15c | 106.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…366cbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf908…b84bbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb245…7631backed Yes | 23c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd7…eb50backed Yes | 24c | 71.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72a9…f39abacked No | 78c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the CDU/CSU win between 32% and 34% of the vote in the German election?this page
- Will the CDU/CSU win between 26% and 28% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the CDU/CSU win between 28% and 30% of the vote in the German election?Yes won
- Will the CDU/CSU win between 30% and 32% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the CDU/CSU win less than 26% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the CDU/CSU win more than 34% of the vote in the German election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.