World Politics · resolved market
Will the CDU/CSU win between 26% and 28% of the vote in the German election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92f8e1757bf5679808b687c3da27eed8e5737ac9fed7d9f27a1669afecac494e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $263,400
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $258,476
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $263,400 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7efa…acbebacked Yes | 3c | 90,000$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,250 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 4c | 11,694$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.62 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 0c | 7,374$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3371…5871backed Yes | 8c | 6,011$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.16 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 5c | 3,035$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.39 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2755…5016backed Yes | 12c | 2,000$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 6c | 1,833$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.02 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes | 7c | 1,457$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.85 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a54…e445backed Yes | 8c | 1,306$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 1,286$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.83 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b51…9c96backed Yes | 9c | 1,124$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 5c | 1,071$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.1 | 140 | 33.6%47 W · 93 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 11c | 903.24$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.43 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe399…49e2backed Yes | 10c | 691.17$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c8…6e68backed Yes | 11c | 682.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.73 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 6c | 674$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 8c | 618.83$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.72 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed Yes | 6c | 400.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 10c | 400$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…678cbacked Yes | 6c | 382$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8608…7b5cbacked Yes | 6c | 364.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fae…6378backed Yes | 4c | 311.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 6c | 310$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ba…0672backed Yes | 7c | 294.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x734f…b3b7backed Yes | 5c | 292.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 6c | 281.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaedb…3de3backed Yes | 7c | 209$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6600…33b5backed Yes | 10c | 194.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe759…e7cabacked Yes | 23c | 175.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b83…905ebacked Yes | 7c | 140.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 39c | 68.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.87 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the CDU/CSU win between 26% and 28% of the vote in the German election?this page
- Will the CDU/CSU win between 28% and 30% of the vote in the German election?Yes won
- Will the CDU/CSU win between 30% and 32% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the CDU/CSU win between 32% and 34% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the CDU/CSU win less than 26% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the CDU/CSU win more than 34% of the vote in the German election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.