TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x3371…5871

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
85
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Tweets, grading 51 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 51 out of 100; worst Ukraine at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 25, 2025, EDT263.8%1 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-87.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.5
Starmer out before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$150
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$142.74
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and BSW form the next German Government?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$353Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$352.55
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$1,360Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,359.85
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and FDP form the next German Government?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$416Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$415.99
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$39.52
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$177Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$177.44
Will another coalition form the next German Government?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$236Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$236.02
Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$302Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$301.84
Will the AFD be part of the next German government?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$360Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$360
Will Olaf Scholz be the next Chancellor of Germany?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$64.66
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$846Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$845.8
Will the CDU/CSU win by 4-6%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$345Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$345.18
Will the CDU/CSU win by 2-4%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$196Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$196.35
Will the CDU/CSU win between 26% and 28% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$457Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$457.16
Will the CDU/CSU win less than 26% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$63.34
Will the CDU/CSU win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.73
Will the CDU/CSU win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+227.6%+$284.84
Will the SPD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$183Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$182.78
Will the AfD win between 24% and 26% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$174Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$173.95
Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$1,528Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,528.11
Will CDU/CSU win the second most seats in the next German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$522Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST-100%-$521.55
Will SPD win the second most seats in the next German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST-100%-$59.99
Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$184Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST-100%-$183.51
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 24, 2025, EDT190%0 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 'Magazine Dreams' gross less than 1m on opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.3
Will 'Snow White' gross between 44-49m on opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.05
Will 'Snow White' gross between 34-39m on opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$84.53
Will 'Snow White' gross less than 34m on opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$45.06
Will 'Snow White' gross more than 49m on opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.68
Will 'Alto Knights' gross less than 5-7m on opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$51.72
Will "The Brutalist" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$508Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$507.54
Will "Emilia Pérez" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$26.88
Will "Dune: Part Two" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$134.71
Will "Heart Eyes" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $9-12m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$27.7
Will "Love Hurts" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $5m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$51.57
Will "Companion" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $11-14m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$153.98
Will "Companion" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $17m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$24.54
Will "Companion" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $14-17m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$38.04
Will "Companion" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $8m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$54.12
Will "Dog Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $40m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$138.34
Will "Dog Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $25m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$80.04
Will "Dog Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $25-30m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$257Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$257
Will "Dog Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $30-35m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$167Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$167.22
All 19 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST190%0 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$37.24
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15.29
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$19.18
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$59.07
Will Trump pardon 1,000-1,249 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.73
Will Trump pardon 1,500 or more Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$36.99
Trump takes Panama Canal in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$236Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$236.03
Gold missing from Fort Knox?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.83
Will Donald Trump issue 75-99 executive orders in his first week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2025, EST-100%-$11.99
Will Trump issue 100-149 executive orders in first week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2025, EST-100%-$11.05
Will Trump impose tariffs on the European Union in his first week? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2025, EST-100%-$29.04
Will Trump impose tariffs on China in his first week? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2025, EST-100%-$11.75
Will Caitlyn Jenner attend presidential inauguration?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST-100%-$135.2
Will Brad Garlinghouse attend presidential inauguration?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$15.44
Will Shou Chew attend presidential inauguration?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$27.03
Will every president attend Trump’s inauguration?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$34.15
Will Javier Milei attend presidential inauguration?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$21.71
Will Joe Biden attend presidential inauguration?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$62.7
Will Kamala Harris attend presidential inauguration?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$29.35
All 19 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2025, EST1010%1 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet 225-249 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$332Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$332.39
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Jan 17-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2025, EST-100%-$28.18
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2025, EST+742.8%+$152.6
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Jan 17-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2025, EST-100%-$34.89
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Jan 17-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2025, EST-100%-$26.5
Will Elon tweet 725-749 times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST-100%-$53.84
Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST-100%-$36
Will Elon tweet 750 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST-100%-$138.35
Will Elon tweet 700-724 times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST-100%-$95.83
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST-100%-$13
All 10 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Germany win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump mentions his memecoin in inaugural address?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
TikTok removed from App Store by Monday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$33.2
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.