World Politics · resolved market
Will the CDU/CSU win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1abfefcba4018fa013e432fae84277c8add5fc85181c32880331313bd7b3217f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $605,007
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $650,676
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $605,007 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 576 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 34c | 57,905$19,933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,971.44 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca8…dc6dbacked No | 1c | 42,139$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 34c | 25,413$8,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,868.84 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…e56fbacked Yes | 37c | 18,291$6,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,571.83 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 45c | 13,122$5,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,261.84 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad14…ce36backed Yes | 32c | 12,000$3,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,160 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec40…fce5backed Yes | 37c | 10,687$3,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,736.63 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 38c | 10,340$3,907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,432.55 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 31c | 7,286$2,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,009.26 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 39c | 6,536$2,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,997.9 | 92 | 37%34 W · 58 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e7…fc15backed Yes | 34c | 6,380$2,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,217.88 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed Yes | 44c | 6,164$2,717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,447.44 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 36c | 5,813$2,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,733.9 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 76c | 5,733$4,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,387.7 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes | 59c | 5,406$3,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,237.84 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 39c | 5,221$2,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,208.03 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 40c | 5,115$2,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,056.13 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…9026backed Yes | 40c | 5,000$1,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,004.18 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked No | 66c | 5,000$3,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,300 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 36c | 5,000$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,200 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 63c | 4,501$2,836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,835.87 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 5c | 4,354$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.09 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Yes | 41c | 4,205$1,724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,481.06 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 47c | 4,110$1,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,160.55 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d6…af98backed Yes | 37c | 4,000$1,479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,520.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe433…e0f7backed Yes | 54c | 3,509$1,894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,614.16 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 39c | 3,303$1,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,022.72 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa289…d95cbacked Yes | 35c | 2,850$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,852.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2755…5016backed Yes | 49c | 2,624$1,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,339.19 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc5…a867backed Yes | 40c | 2,502$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes | 31c | 2,395$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,652.32 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 48c | 2,261$1,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.71 | 140 | 33.6%47 W · 93 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ff…bafebacked Yes | 35c | 2,229$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,458.57 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 38c | 2,192$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,359.74 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Yes | 36c | 2,102$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,341.01 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 33c | 1,974$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,327.65 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d8…a0a6backed Yes | 39c | 1,869$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,144.99 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 42c | 1,824$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060.01 | 102 | 33.3%34 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 33c | 1,758$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,185.41 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | -18.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 62c | 1,657$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.54 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 53c | 1,562$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.91 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 36c | 1,500$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed Yes | 40c | 1,330$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.55 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ef…3d1ebacked Yes | 39c | 1,282$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.05 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e49…0b46backed Yes | 37c | 1,224$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.38 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 69c | 1,183$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.18 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 36c | 1,148$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.25 | 192 | 37.5%72 W · 120 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed Yes | 44c | 1,138$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.32 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…38edbacked Yes | 48c | 1,040$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26dc…4741backed Yes | 47c | 1,003$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.76 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 35c | 1,003$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.22 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 110 | 13.6%15 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…b532backed Yes | 36c | 998.12$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.2 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes | 38c | 962.72$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.04 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…2d55backed Yes | 40c | 960.78$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.21 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5c…d3bbbacked Yes | 42c | 939.24$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c8…6e68backed Yes | 40c | 906.64$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.49 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…678cbacked Yes | 28c | 800$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8967…1e9bbacked Yes | 32c | 771.21$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.42 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…e5a4backed Yes | 34c | 764.73$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.72 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed Yes | 57c | 763.99$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.41 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa15f…5657backed Yes | 39c | 615.38$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 37c | 594.1$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.11 | 152 | 37.5%57 W · 95 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91e1…1282backed No | 64c | 540$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.6 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 44c | 516.39$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.8 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed Yes | 35c | 500.47$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.21 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76c4…bbc5backed Yes | 32c | 500$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e02…aa22backed Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked No | 61c | 494.01$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.35 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f0…e0d6backed Yes | 31c | 462.9$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.4 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd361…3885backed Yes | 33c | 448.92$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.92 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa587…82d1backed Yes | 40c | 434.92$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.92 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff6f…f9a6backed Yes | 43c | 429.95$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a82…6817backed No | 67c | 414$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3371…5871backed Yes | 31c | 410$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.84 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed Yes | 38c | 406.38$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.52 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 35c | 406.14$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.44 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1601…ed94backed Yes | 29c | 400$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +2,128.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x421b…ac12backed Yes | 48c | 384.99$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.19 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Yes | 53c | 380.88$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 34c | 377$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.62 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 36c | 350$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4d…6d87backed Yes | 38c | 350$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a1…7afebacked Yes | 47c | 350$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x670b…e4afbacked Yes | 29c | 344.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.79 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa76b…97f1backed Yes | 38c | 344.18$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.39 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -33%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9f…0cdfbacked Yes | 38c | 338.65$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.39 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d81…fd67backed Yes | 30c | 336.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.67 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 22cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8922…f01dbacked Yes | 63c | 328.23$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.69 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c47…e795backed No | 63c | 317.54$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5651…66a6backed Yes | 77c | 316.95$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.34 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf04e…22debacked Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 29c | 301.02$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.72 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c94…fd17backed Yes | 30c | 300.9$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 37c | 300$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4440…5f67backed Yes | 37c | 299.51$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.1 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7e…77f1backed Yes | 47c | 292.9$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.16 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1908…b485backed Yes | 53c | 285.55$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…9e14backed Yes | 34c | 280$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.8 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the CDU/CSU win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?this page
- Will the CDU/CSU win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the CDU/CSU win 30-35% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the CDU/CSU win 35-40% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the CDU/CSU win less than 20% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the CDU/CSU win over 40% of the vote in the German election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.