TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc7d8…a0a6

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
97
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: World Politics, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 55 out of 100; worst Music at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST3447.1%16 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-26.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 34 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 400m and 440m by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$17.15
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+63.9%+$19.11
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$2,259Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$2,259.39
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$759Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+46.6%+$353.46
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST+100%+$250
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' gross between $370-385m by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+187.6%+$185.28
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' gross less than $370m by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$135.31
Will 'The Accountant 2' gross less than $25m on opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$1,625Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,625.43
Will 'The Accountant 2' gross between $28-31m on opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.5
Will 'Sinners' gross between $49m and $54m on opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$121.1
Will 'Sinners' gross less than $44m on opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,681Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2025, EDT+41.9%+$704.8
Will 'Sinners' gross between $44m and $49m on opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,840Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2025, EDT+35.2%+$647.64
Will 'King of Kings' make between $15-18m on its domestic opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$50.75
Will 'Minecraft' gross between 48-64m on opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$316Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$315.9
Will 'Minecraft' gross between 64-70m on opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$156.27
Will 'Minecraft' gross more than 70m on opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$4,401Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2025, EDT+26.8%+$1,177.5
Will 'A Working Man' gross more than 17m on opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$40.85
Will 'A Working Man' gross between 14-17m on opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$4,698Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2025, EDT+25.4%+$1,191.52
Will 'Snow White' gross between 39-44m on opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$4,765Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT+42.3%+$2,017.2
Will 'Snow White' gross between 44-49m on opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$514Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$514.42
Will 'Snow White' gross more than 49m on opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$50.9
Will 'Alto Knights' gross less than 3m on opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,067Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT+71.6%+$763.89
Will 'Alto Knights' gross between 3-5m on opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$3,229Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT+35.6%+$1,148.04
Will 'Novocaine' gross between 7-9m on opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$263Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2025, EDT+46.1%+$121.27
Will 'The Monkey' gross more than 15m on its opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$5,082Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST+48.7%+$2,472.79
Showing 25 of 34 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-32.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$734Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+54.5%+$400.18
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$3,719Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+74.4%+$2,768.14
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$27.53
Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$2,291Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+32.1%+$735.79
Will Xi Jinping talk to Trump before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+100%+$30
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$2,305Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+30.2%+$694.99
Will Trump impose tariffs on Brazil in the first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$329Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$328.98
Will Trump lower tariffs on China in April? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$823Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$822.79
Trump imposes 40% tariff on China in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$76
Trump uses a recess appointment for Cabinet?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,202Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+46%+$552.55
Will Trump remove tariff on Mexico before March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$617Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST+50%+$308.27
Will RFK Jr. be Trump's HHS Secretary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$102.76
Will $Trump FDV be $50b or more on Feb 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$415Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST+32.5%+$135
Trump positive favorability on inauguration day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$434Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2025, EST-100%-$434.29
Total crypto market cap over $4 trillion on Jan 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$585Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$585.15
Will Trump formally nominate RFK Jr. to the cabinet?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$33
Will Trump say "Elon Musk" during his inauguration speech?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$412Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+36.4%+$150
Will Trump say "mandate" 3+ times during his inauguration speech?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$157
Will Trump say "drill baby drill" during his inauguration speech?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$68.87
Will Trump say "border" 5 or more times during his inauguration speech?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$212Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+52.9%+$111.83
Will Joe Biden attend presidential inauguration?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$63.89
Will Kamala Harris attend presidential inauguration?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Will Barack Obama attend presidential inauguration?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+63.2%+$27.1
Another Trump Cabinet nominee withdrawn before inauguration?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$59.6
Will Mike Johnson be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$761Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$761.3
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT1566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+13.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$25.84
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$35.94
Will the Liberal Party win the second most seats in the next Canadian election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,521Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,521.45
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$76,080Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+33.8%+$25,746.23
Will the Conservative Party win the second most seats in the next Canadian election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$1,958Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+104.8%+$2,052.23
Will the CDU/CSU win 30-35% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,302Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,302.38
Will the CDU/CSU win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$724Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+158%+$1,144.99
Will the SPD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$2,130Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+76.6%+$1,631.05
Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$3,592Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,591.7
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$10,957Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+64.3%+$7,043.78
Greens win over 15% of vote in German election? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$654Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$654.07
Will AfD win the second most seats in the next German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$159Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST+88.7%+$141
Will SPD win the second most seats in the next German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST-100%-$116.16
Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2025, EST+42%+$35.5
South Korean President impeached by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$479Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2024, EST+31.3%+$149.72
All 15 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST4100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+57%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2025, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2025, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-68.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 7, 2025, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$26.6
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST-100%-$44.3
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+77.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ye banned on X in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$135Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST+77.7%+$104.97
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
China-EU trade deal before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+28.4%+$4.42
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Nov 26, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Taylor Swift be the Billboard #1 pop star of the century?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,219Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2024, EST-100%-$1,219
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.