Movies · resolved market
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc30cf28f8108d5e883038c89afeaaead56c19730ed7211249cbf60c35ff76890
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,015,615
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,344,892
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,015,615 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 817 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd2b…01b2backed Yes | 1c | 222,280$2,619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,618.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3535…7982backed Yes | 10c | 97,113$9,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,580.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x109f…4f0cbacked No | 67c | 94,560$63,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,204.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0833…7191backed Yes | 33c | 94,560$31,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,204.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3add…ea11backed Yes | 4c | 63,931$2,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,433.36 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d65…b960backed Yes | 1c | 63,417$869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 47,369$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.88 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdce2…774ebacked No | 66c | 35,001$23,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,900.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfac8…4916backed Yes | 34c | 35,001$11,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,900.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b05…5369backed Yes | 2c | 33,945$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 5c | 32,632$1,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,609.31 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacff…f88cbacked Yes | 1c | 30,083$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…4a1dbacked Yes | 8c | 29,491$2,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,449.4 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…8393backed Yes | 0c | 28,365$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…e2afbacked Yes | 1c | 27,443$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8273…b08fbacked Yes | 10c | 26,235$2,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,520.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 6c | 25,185$1,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,458.11 | 61 | 8.2%5 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0a…1936backed Yes | 6c | 24,519$1,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,564.43 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b76…bf1dbacked Yes | 3c | 23,878$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee9…69a0backed Yes | 1c | 23,307$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2635…41aebacked Yes | 1c | 22,420$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.48 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…181dbacked Yes | 1c | 21,198$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.09 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5369…df85backed Yes | 9c | 20,749$1,937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,936.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…c7bfbacked Yes | 13c | 20,494$2,735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,734.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…e185backed Yes | 7c | 20,005$1,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,393.05 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a0…4c03backed Yes | 1c | 20,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2050…1124backed Yes | 13c | 19,716$2,617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,617.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9734…8582backed Yes | 3c | 19,228$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 6c | 17,892$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.58 | 53 | 7.5%4 W · 49 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa4…0821backed Yes | 8c | 16,500$1,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,391.24 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes | 8c | 16,392$1,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,313.08 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50ac…955dbacked Yes | 9c | 16,243$1,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,494.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed Yes | 11c | 15,785$1,694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,694.38 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…9a2fbacked Yes | 8c | 15,183$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x390d…e186backed Yes | 3c | 15,000$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd5…9f96backed Yes | 1c | 14,809$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a4…8fd7backed Yes | 1c | 14,534$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76bd…f258backed Yes | 3c | 14,464$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb19…994bbacked Yes | 7c | 14,086$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 4c | 13,964$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9e…e4a8backed Yes | 19c | 13,596$2,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,565.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…6accbacked Yes | 8c | 13,555$1,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,127.79 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd5…1dc7backed Yes | 4c | 13,438$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf39…3101backed Yes | 10c | 13,196$1,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,330.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14cd…0d33backed Yes | 8c | 12,198$1,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked Yes | 5c | 12,069$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.08 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,833$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x980d…4a2bbacked Yes | 7c | 10,442$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8b…68a6backed Yes | 1c | 10,150$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f06…753bbacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a0…d410backed Yes | 2c | 9,945$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 0c | 9,900$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -94.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f19…fed3backed Yes | 1c | 9,782$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…dc15backed Yes | 1c | 9,536$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 9,365$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.27 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fda…f4ebbacked Yes | 6c | 9,249$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa958…fecfbacked Yes | 1c | 9,131$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.63 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 1cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c02…2b85backed Yes | 15c | 9,113$1,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,333.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d0…ef3ebacked Yes | 2c | 8,861$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x990a…7b16backed Yes | 1c | 8,610$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.93 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…4ed8backed Yes | 1c | 8,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3727…0b44backed Yes | 1c | 8,187$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2031…1d23backed Yes | 13c | 8,115$1,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,086.1 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…5d38backed Yes | 0c | 8,091$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf921…94dbbacked Yes | 25c | 7,911$1,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,969.63 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69af…f5babacked Yes | 6c | 7,800$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3b…e1e3backed Yes | 2c | 7,790$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c2a…21c8backed Yes | 7c | 7,611$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10ba…8165backed Yes | 1c | 7,553$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44b9…b3debacked Yes | 1c | 7,499$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 5c | 7,469$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.12 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2978…f839backed Yes | 14c | 7,393$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f83…3fd6backed Yes | 1c | 7,296$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 10c | 6,919$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.46 | 55 | 5.5%3 W · 52 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked Yes | 8c | 6,813$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8f…d61bbacked Yes | 1c | 6,656$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65cc…02dcbacked Yes | 2c | 6,575$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x929c…e816backed Yes | 1c | 6,500$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1d…3c6ebacked Yes | 4c | 6,482$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8316…457bbacked Yes | 14c | 6,335$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.2 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd1…928abacked Yes | 5c | 6,119$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 4c | 6,081$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.66 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda2b…ff18backed Yes | 3c | 6,016$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.49 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…87bebacked Yes | 1c | 6,002$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5206…6333backed Yes | 0c | 6,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 14c | 6,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.87 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe737…cf39backed Yes | 1c | 5,880$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x855d…5342backed Yes | 5c | 5,873$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e69…200ebacked Yes | 0c | 5,860$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cf…ba10backed Yes | 10c | 5,800$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4463…f3d0backed Yes | 2c | 5,717$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef38…02e2backed Yes | 2c | 5,673$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…6525backed Yes | 1c | 5,544$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82cd…dfe7backed Yes | 2c | 5,520$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb659…c375backed Yes | 1c | 5,477$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -72%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe267…86e4backed Yes | 2c | 5,446$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e12…451ebacked Yes | 12c | 5,412$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23be…da4fbacked Yes | 19c | 5,392$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c72…a042backed Yes | 11c | 5,363$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.26 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes | 5c | 5,352$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?this page
- Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?Yes won
- Will 'Captain America: Brave New World' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?No won
- Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?No won
- Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?No won
- Will 'Lilo & Stich' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?No won
- Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?No won
- Will 'Superman' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?No won
- Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?No won
- Will 'Thunderbolts*' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?No won
- Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?No won
- Will 'Zootopia 2' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.