TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will 'Lilo & Stich' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$291,084
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$252,448

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $291,084 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xeda8…f30bbacked Yes23c50,988$11,727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,727.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a56…3b4ebacked No77c50,988$39,261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,727.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c18,106$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.21190%0 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5303…d66ebacked Yes1c9,131$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100100%0 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x792d…c475backed Yes2c7,818$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.32326.3%2 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-62.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d62…a1f0backed Yes6c7,816$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.986023.3%14 W · 46 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick13cpaid+32.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes1c6,362$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.22462.2%1 W · 45 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick1cpaid+55.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x033d…af05backed Yes7c4,806$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.0813150.4%66 W · 65 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes1c4,582$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.214212%17 W · 125 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-75.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes34c4,308$1,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,457.6832639.3%128 W · 198 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x897a…b17ebacked No77c4,300$3,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,009.863339.4%13 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-25.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6640…2202backed Yes20c3,235$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.891921.1%4 W · 15 L-4.3wins-0.22per pick44cpaid-61.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x524c…64c8backed Yes7c2,952$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.04254%1 W · 24 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick13cpaid-93.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes5c2,946$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.295536.4%20 W · 35 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+1.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb8a9…2948backed Yes9c2,349$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.2914425.7%37 W · 107 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick22cpaid-15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes5c2,316$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.3826041.2%107 W · 153 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-0.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0e78…e415backed Yes27c2,298$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.631811.1%2 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-34.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x02b2…7ee8backed Yes1c2,090$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2070%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed Yes42c1,749$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$734.7720049.5%99 W · 101 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No41c1,701$692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,008.962642.3%11 W · 15 L+5.1wins+0.20per pick23cpaid+335.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes6c1,500$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.2719031.1%59 W · 131 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf901…2264backed Yes35c1,500$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5251050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+97.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3cd…71eebacked Yes6c1,393$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed Yes5c1,330$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.164134.1%14 W · 27 L-5.8wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed Yes38c1,300$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4931747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+15.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes8c1,248$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.296622.7%15 W · 51 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-50.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed Yes4c1,218$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.52306.7%2 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick9cpaid+49.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe38d…6c36backed Yes6c1,161$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701020%2 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-72%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2f0…9941backed Yes5c1,022$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+17.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Yes24c1,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes4c903.75$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1532739.1%128 W · 199 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a45…9d4abacked Yes18c815$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.96541.5%27 W · 38 L+8.8wins+0.13per pick28cpaid+68.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6ab0…1317backed Yes17c813.55$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1401241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd67a…b63bbacked Yes2c772.44$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes12c760.52$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.851,3938%111 W · 1,282 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc032…6668backed Yes7c735.36$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick5cpaid+64.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes13c677.65$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.8917041.8%71 W · 99 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0619…90f7backed Yes7c676.39$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-63.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes5c658.62$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.88983.1%3 W · 95 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-89%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbad6…ec0cbacked Yes2c652.18$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes5c644.29$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.486222.6%14 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick23cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee97…ee69backed No60c601.81$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.312100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+166.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes39c600.24$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.348040%32 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb052…ff06backed Yes2c564$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.182114.3%3 W · 18 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-59.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32f4…c885backed Yes6c553.79$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2216614.5%24 W · 142 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04bf…7cafbacked No66c539.74$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.247735.1%27 W · 50 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1446…939abacked No79c523.08$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.72757.1%4 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick71cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1176…31dcbacked Yes2c483.69$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbda7…e11fbacked Yes4c470.49$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8987…a39bbacked No65c437.09$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.981020%2 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-71.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed Yes5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20744.1%3 W · 71 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-84.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8085…ea17backed Yes23c396.98$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.314938.8%19 W · 30 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick31cpaid-8.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbae4…c085backed Yes5c368.1$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.051286.3%8 W · 120 L-8.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-77.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes5c321.47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1167232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2aea…afe5backed Yes11c312.82$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3aab…c911backed Yes6c307.69$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20156.7%1 W · 14 L-2.9wins-0.19per pick26cpaid-87.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc2a9…4fcdbacked Yes4c307$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15ae…9b0dbacked Yes4c280$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.561723.5%4 W · 13 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick10cpaid+56.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes5c268.91$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.082528%7 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-27.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf4b5…82eabacked Yes7c254.05$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1740%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39df…644bbacked Yes17c250$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.51330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-45.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5024…e5e1backed Yes5c246$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf526…35b1backed No76c245.36$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.34560%3 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick73cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92c7…c136backed Yes36c212.08$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.41922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick36cpaid+2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ec0…abc2backed Yes21c203.11$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103330.3%10 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-33.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes21c197.71$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4750633.4%169 W · 337 L-30.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes21c185.38$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.482416.7%4 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-59.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x661c…de61backed Yes19c183$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c98…d38fbacked Yes27c182$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.371020%2 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick22cpaid+77.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb81d…5e98backed Yes19c176$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cab…7222backed No60c167.5$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.51127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-51.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ba5…4f56backed Yes14c160.15$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.47520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick7cpaid+222%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d55…7cbabacked Yes9c147.57$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.972524%6 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick13cpaid+127.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5822…a34ebacked Yes9c138$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef0c…0382backed Yes19c125$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f39…8ad7backed Yes16c124.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2090%0 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e70…9047backed Yes41c118.52$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2460%0 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8f4a…cae1backed Yes19c116$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5256…d1dbbacked Yes19c104$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes36c102.62$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.437839.7%31 W · 47 L+8.4wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+11.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdfe7…324dbacked Yes15c101.04$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158930.3%27 W · 62 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-16.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c66…6b66backed No66c100.06$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.86205%1 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-92.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe180…889bbacked No58c86.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.211040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-31.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57d9…a0bcbacked Yes19c82$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ac3…ef53backed No75c76.46$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.461225%3 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-60.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x91d8…dbc6backed Yes20c76.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14fa…357fbacked Yes19c73$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7201…fe41backed No66c65.22$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.22633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-22.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x734b…ac52backed Yes19c64$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe441…90d2backed Yes19c59$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3fd…e116backed Yes19c57$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b6b…2d1dbacked Yes19c57$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13be…875dbacked Yes41c56$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.68250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92c2…491bbacked Yes41c53$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2af…0bc4backed Yes41c51$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d23…087fbacked Yes41c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbabd…3335backed Yes21c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.451127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c4a…a72ebacked Yes30c41.32$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4470%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes25c41$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.261136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-46.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.