TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x92c7…c136

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
463
Categories scored
25
Categories below 50
23

Best Category: Fed Rates, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Fed Rates at 53 out of 100; worst Crypto Milestones at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT12920.9%27 W · 102 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick24cpaid+18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 129 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$13,812Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$13,811.77
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$7,760Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$7,760.24
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$9,162Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$9,162.07
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.09
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$126.23
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.04
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$3,717Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,716.86
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$17.3
Will Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$298Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+69.9%+$208.15
Another Canada election called in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$26
Starmer out in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$18.25
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$48
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$102.54
North Korea x South Korea military clash by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$13.14
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$65
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$131.83
Will LLA win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$54.5
Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$129Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+55%+$71
Will the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$57
Will Paul Biya win the Cameroon Presidential Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.2
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.5
Will Mairead McGuinness win the Irish Presidential Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.93
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$64.09
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$42
Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Showing 25 of 129 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST8226.8%22 W · 60 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 82 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump deport less than 250,000?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+41.9%+$13.29
Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+87.5%+$113.64
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+1,078.8%+$111.65
Will the U.S. collect between $200b and $500b in revenue in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$21.5
Will the U.S. collect between $100b and $200b in revenue in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+202.7%+$51.25
Will Elon and DOGE cut 150-200k employees in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Trump spend >25% of 2025 presidency golfing?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$12.87
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$222Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$221.51
Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+26.6%+$14.49
Will Trump remove 10% blanket tariff in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$12.42
Will DOGE confirm Gold missing from Fort Knox?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20.8
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$414Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$414.34
Will Trump cut taxes on high earners in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$16
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$270Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+48.4%+$130.4
Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$22.55
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$23
Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$19
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$23.18
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$11
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$41
Will RFK end COVID-19 vaccine recommendation in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$17.22
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+185.7%+$32.5
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST+685.2%+$96.76
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.22
Showing 25 of 82 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT4219%8 W · 34 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-71%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
AI — the 42 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.55
Will ChatGPT reach 1b monthly active users in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$73.88
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$263Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$263.21
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+34.5%+$39.07
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15.57
Will Meta have a #1 AI model this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$12.32
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$38.78
Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model this year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+29.3%+$4.53
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$129Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+53.8%+$69.45
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$68
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$42.24
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$19.28
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$20.18
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.02
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$59.95
Will Google have the top AI model on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$32.26
Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Grok 4 released by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$14.5
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$305Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT+36.1%+$110.09
Will NVDA purchase Bitcoin before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.88
Will DeepSeek be #1 model before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.04
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.64
Will OpenAI release an open source model before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$223Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+49.1%+$109.36
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.93
Showing 25 of 42 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT3228.1%9 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-38.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$267Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$266.73
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$223Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$223.2
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$326Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$326.39
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.09
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,044Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+45%+$469.41
Israel parliament dissolved in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$45.26
Iran Nuke in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$171Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$170.89
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$36.07
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+50.6%+$47.05
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$48
Netanyahu out by 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+37%+$4.97
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$733Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+99%+$725.83
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$894Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$893.57
Another Houthi strike on Israel before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$333Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+48.5%+$161.82
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$326Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$325.85
US military action against Iran before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$7,444Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$7,443.8
Will Greta Thunberg enter Gaza by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.83
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$128Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT+344.6%+$442.79
Israel military action against Iran before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$293Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$293.17
Israel military action against Iran before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,562Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,562.36
Another Israel military action on Yemen before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.03
Will Israel raid Greta Thunberg's ship by Monday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.09
Israel intercepts Greta Thunberg's ship before reaching Gaza?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$71.03
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT2931%9 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid-23.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.27
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.92
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$16
Fed emergency rate cut in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$47.25
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.0% in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$13.5
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.5% in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$19
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$13.5
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$131Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+59.4%+$78.01
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$11.55
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$64.3
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$421Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+30.7%+$129.25
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$33.6
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+747.5%+$882
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$106.08
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$631Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+28.8%+$181.42
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4% in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2025, EDT+44.1%+$30.6
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$648Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+34.7%+$224.87
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$395Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+143.8%+$568.77
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+195%+$117.42
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$460Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+27.9%+$128.59
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$173Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$172.5
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.8
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$1,352Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,352.48
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$3,056Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,055.61
Fed rate cut by June meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.58
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2825%7 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-49.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$61.5
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$11
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$151Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+37.5%+$56.74
Will Ukraine agree to give up Russian territory in Kursk?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$32.08
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea in 2025? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$105.63
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$18
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$245Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$245.28
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$195Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+84.1%+$164.02
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+48.9%+$47.7
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$55.5
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,119Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+42.5%+$475.67
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$51.67
Will Russia capture Siversk by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$53.94
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.06
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$96.57
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.45
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$212Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT+424.3%+$898.29
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$136Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+42%+$57.18
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$2,411Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,411.07
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$152.53
Will Putin meet with Trump before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+27%+$40.95
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.35
Trump exits Russia x Ukraine negotiations before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.97
Will Russia capture territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.62
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$119.8
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2711.1%3 W · 24 L-3.5wins-0.13per pick24cpaid-75.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Solana all time high before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$117.78
Dogecoin all time high before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$16.7
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$451Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+64.7%+$291.62
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$242Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+209.7%+$507.42
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$17.6
Ethereum all time high before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,258Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,258.33
Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$318Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$317.97
Will Solana reach $200 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$42
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$285Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$284.73
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$403Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$403.33
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$36.6
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+96.4%+$26.78
Will Solana reach $180 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$73.03
Will Solana reach $220 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$123.27
Will Bitcoin reach $115K in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$562Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$562.3
Will XRP reach $2.8 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$44
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$162Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$162.02
Will Fartcoin reach $3.00 before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.52
Will Bitcoin reach $115k in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$349Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$349.28
Will Fartcoin reach $2.00 before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.2
Will Fartcoin reach $1.80 before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.76
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$54.44
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.63
Will Solana reach $190 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$32.96
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST2532%8 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-37.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Negative GDP growth in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+36.1%+$26.5
Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$34
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$46
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$29.5
Negative GDP growth in Q3 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$23.5
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 1% and 0%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.95
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 2% and 1%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$41.22
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be greater than 2%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$35.85
Negative GDP growth in Q2 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.8
Will a dozen eggs be below $4.50 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$178Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2025, EDT+240.8%+$427.58
Will annual inflation increase by 2.4% in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2025, EDT+256.4%+$62.22
Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% or more in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$162Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2025, EDT+33.1%+$53.62
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% or more in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.19
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$269Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$132.3
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$108.8
Will annual inflation increase by 2.5% in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$255Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2025, EDT+43%+$109.55
Will annual inflation increase by 2.2% or less in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.88
Will the US add 200k or more jobs in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.06
Will the May 2025 unemployment rate be 4.3%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT+51.3%+$15.12
Will the US add less than 50k jobs in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.66
Will the US add between 150k and 199k jobs in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$178Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT+58%+$103.39
Will the US add between 100k and 149k jobs in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.5
Will egg prices be between $5.00 and $5.25 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$74
Will egg prices be between $5.25 and $5.50 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$58
Negative GDP growth in Q1 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$101.52
All 25 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick24cpaid-71.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.23
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$142.75
Will Charles Gambaro be the Republican nominee for FL-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.41
Will Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.49
Will Omar Fateh win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$143.51
Will Jazz Hampton win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$10.99
Will DeWayne Davis win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$21
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+245.7%+$238.52
Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$37.61
Will reconciliation bill be passed by August 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.5
Will Fischer win Nebraska senate election by 7+ points?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2024, EST-100%-$160
Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2024, EST-100%-$95.02
All 12 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Oct 3, 2025, EDT1127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-34.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Music — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Diddy be sentenced to no prison time?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2025, EDT+40.3%+$14.35
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce engaged in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.5
Diddy convicted of a felony?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.71
Diddy found guilty of sex trafficking?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT+192%+$57.2
Will "Oh, Mary!" win the Tony for Best Play 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.74
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$153.94
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$854Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$853.92
Will Greece finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.87
Will France finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT+185.7%+$26
Will Netherlands finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.4
Will Czechia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$50.7
All 11 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick36cpaid+2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Movies — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+681.9%+$303.58
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+36.2%+$10.55
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$31.19
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$92.42
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$52.49
Will 'Zootopia 2' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$34.68
Will 'Lilo & Stich' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$75.41
Will "Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 80?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.05
Will "Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 85 and 89?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.3
All 9 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick25cpaid-53.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Space — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2025, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-43.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST50%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-43.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Weather — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times June 6–13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$33
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times June 6–13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$36.51
All 2 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.83
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.17
All 2 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Jun 6, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Chess — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro out in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$42
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$11.27
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Jun 29, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Pump.fun launch a token by July 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$84.79
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.