Middle East · resolved market
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68beecc857017df8663fa36c0c86310dec7305aa88fe830c94651391314afc1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,488,906
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,260,608
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,488,906 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,809 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdc5…afc9backed Yes | 8c | 751,217$60,941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60,940.57 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 2cpaid | +251%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…e798backed Yes | 5c | 177,732$9,592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,592.4 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +405.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 12c | 162,838$20,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,210.95 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 28c | 154,107$42,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42,574.88 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 8c | 138,384$10,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,879.75 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 11c | 124,884$13,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,966.07 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 19c | 108,377$20,913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,913.04 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +73%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Yes | 7c | 90,973$6,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,641.73 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +131%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 13c | 84,198$10,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,980.4 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3df…6f87backed Yes | 10c | 80,847$8,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,359.08 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 8c | 70,573$5,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,404.7 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3811…b304backed Yes | 12c | 68,569$8,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,266.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd737…be95backed Yes | 4c | 67,027$2,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,365 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 18cpaid | +260.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf396…ed0dbacked No | 78c | 63,561$49,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,202.5 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a16…33dbbacked No | 78c | 55,038$42,915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,123.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed Yes | 9c | 54,293$4,807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,806.83 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed Yes | 20c | 53,913$10,816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,816.36 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0af…e734backed Yes | 0c | 50,990$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 74c | 48,239$35,817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,422.17 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…6320backed Yes | 7c | 47,109$3,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,146.43 | 104 | 17.3%18 W · 86 L | -13.7wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…ab9fbacked Yes | 2c | 45,919$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.7 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14cf…c320backed Yes | 14c | 45,418$6,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,393.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…2128backed Yes | 3c | 43,084$1,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,267 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 21c | 43,047$9,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,185.81 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 79c | 37,240$29,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,885.56 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed No | 78c | 36,288$28,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,056.96 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -8.3wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbf…bac7backed Yes | 14c | 35,587$5,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,026.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcf…03a0backed Yes | 3c | 34,508$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes | 10c | 33,256$3,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,360.14 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…e0c5backed Yes | 7c | 32,840$2,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,218.47 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 12c | 31,015$3,701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,700.81 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5b…7796backed Yes | 4c | 30,416$1,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,193.23 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 12c | 30,000$3,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,600 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 76 | 18.4%14 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f04…7994backed Yes | 14c | 29,324$3,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,998.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +189.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…05cfbacked Yes | 11c | 29,046$3,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,195.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 15c | 28,891$4,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,306.03 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2835…1c56backed Yes | 4c | 28,786$1,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,026.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 12c | 28,455$3,547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,546.73 | 89 | 28.1%25 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 7c | 28,250$1,842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,842.11 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4a…4896backed Yes | 4c | 26,924$1,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,052.26 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed Yes | 19c | 26,669$5,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,043.35 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccbd…f1b7backed Yes | 11c | 26,045$2,865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,864.99 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x188e…70d8backed No | 72c | 25,280$18,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,994.03 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…ac19backed Yes | 1c | 24,880$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.83 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a41…242abacked No | 73c | 24,653$17,895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,757.15 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92a4…ee4abacked Yes | 13c | 24,166$3,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,091.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7a…276fbacked Yes | 3c | 23,877$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.87 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 60c | 23,870$14,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,490.36 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 79c | 23,417$18,599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,818.15 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes | 12c | 22,038$2,597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,597.2 | 62 | 3.2%2 W · 60 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 17c | 21,896$3,701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,700.72 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 19c | 21,700$4,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,076.11 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf757…db38backed Yes | 6c | 21,595$1,278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,277.85 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd27c…c081backed No | 80c | 21,528$17,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,402.49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97bc…1a51backed Yes | 9c | 21,432$1,929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,928.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 4c | 20,898$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.84 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…aab7backed Yes | 1c | 20,263$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 5cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bd…e598backed Yes | 5c | 19,853$1,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,024.63 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9488…d531backed Yes | 6c | 19,844$1,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,190.34 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Yes | 22c | 19,641$4,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,261.6 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa888…90a8backed Yes | 3c | 18,932$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 23c | 18,676$4,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,220.39 | 77 | 9.1%7 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 3c | 18,593$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.59 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x436f…2c7fbacked Yes | 28c | 18,041$5,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000.67 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 13c | 17,914$2,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,265.56 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 15c | 17,263$2,623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,623.42 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 22c | 16,885$3,784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,783.63 | 194 | 49.5%96 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58a0…2b5bbacked Yes | 3c | 16,572$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 5cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbd…b7dbbacked Yes | 2c | 16,178$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…62e0backed No | 57c | 16,000$9,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,958.78 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 7c | 15,834$1,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,108.35 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +9.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe331…dbbbbacked Yes | 38c | 15,122$5,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,819.73 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b6…676fbacked Yes | 2c | 15,000$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +195.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c07…08c5backed Yes | 12c | 14,374$1,705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,705.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 39c | 13,985$5,469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,469.32 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a38…0470backed Yes | 4c | 13,877$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed76…8520backed Yes | 7c | 13,749$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2d…8fc4backed Yes | 11c | 13,629$1,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 19c | 13,072$2,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,488.05 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x053d…caedbacked Yes | 2c | 12,892$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.56 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 39cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda6b…a403backed Yes | 3c | 12,263$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.42 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 4cpaid | +224.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes | 4c | 12,059$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.44 | 290 | 27.9%81 W · 209 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5138…4fe5backed Yes | 2c | 11,920$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.31 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5365…40d7backed Yes | 4c | 11,779$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb3…b70fbacked Yes | 3c | 11,650$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa91e…09e0backed Yes | 13c | 11,638$1,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,540.1 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8df8…0db0backed Yes | 5c | 11,219$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.64 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 13cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 26c | 11,088$2,909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,908.9 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…e414backed No | 78c | 10,711$8,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,326.05 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 21c | 10,437$2,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,212.47 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8866…a584backed Yes | 17c | 10,429$1,821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,821.01 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 23c | 10,299$2,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,340.42 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked Yes | 30c | 10,277$3,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,124.18 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd57d…80d0backed Yes | 21c | 10,043$2,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,087.24 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.27per pick | 20cpaid | +273.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa372…1b3ebacked Yes | 2c | 10,000$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd414…a4dbbacked Yes | 18c | 9,945$1,746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,745.53 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0d…7ec8backed Yes | 15c | 9,928$1,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,484.94 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -21%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b76…6984backed Yes | 1c | 9,919$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 19c | 9,816$1,846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,846.32 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?this page
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?Yes won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 1st?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 2nd?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 7th?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.