Middle East · resolved market
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 2nd?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f24dc7407d1e993dc4d4606a9efdfe65ea4b76e04346b972f6dc60518afe042
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $128,313
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $125,031
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $128,313 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 1c | 28,000$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.85 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 2c | 7,195$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.27 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 3c | 5,827$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.48 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd817…8ed2backed Yes | 2c | 4,333$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 14cpaid | +250.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,750$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 4c | 3,333$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.53 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,750$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65fb…9f17backed Yes | 3c | 2,703$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.3 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 16cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 2,359$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.06 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 2c | 2,304$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.38 | 77 | 9.1%7 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 3c | 2,100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 281 | 26.3%74 W · 207 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 3c | 1,851$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.18 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 7c | 1,600$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.4 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 3c | 1,377$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.26 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes | 4c | 1,111$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.19 | 290 | 27.9%81 W · 209 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 3c | 1,071$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 118 | 16.1%19 W · 99 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 3c | 1,029$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57f4…6347backed Yes | 5c | 987.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 850$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadba…f4e0backed Yes | 19c | 610.42$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c40…40dabacked Yes | 7c | 596.13$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.47 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 572.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…879ebacked Yes | 4c | 568.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…4a21backed Yes | 3c | 555.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x857a…6f66backed Yes | 2c | 505.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 7c | 477.77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x179d…e18bbacked Yes | 7c | 448.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c95…7652backed No | 71c | 416.86$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.09 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d11…855bbacked Yes | 13c | 395.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7980…d382backed Yes | 13c | 368.41$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc26d…555abacked Yes | 4c | 355.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 4c | 350.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…fc91backed Yes | 5c | 330.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 4c | 330.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 293.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a35…fc8ebacked Yes | 10c | 220.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4f…1f21backed Yes | 11c | 163.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce2…de3dbacked Yes | 17c | 120.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…8e18backed Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | -7.2wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9695…b2bbbacked Yes | 13c | 79.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b77…27cdbacked Yes | 19c | 51.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 72c | 15.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 139 | 18.7%26 W · 113 L | -13.9wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 2nd?this page
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?Yes won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 1st?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 7th?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.