TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xd426…334a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
806
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: China Taiwan, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category China Taiwan at 59 out of 100; worst College Football at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT36227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 362 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$4,809Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+157.3%+$7,562.08
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$221Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$221.28
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$378Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$377.75
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$17,681Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$17,681.5
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$2,428Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,428.47
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.29
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$856Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$855.55
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$523Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT+83.4%+$436.58
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$336Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$336
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$434Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT+89.7%+$388.97
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$1,671Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+223.2%+$3,730.02
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+156.7%+$126.96
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$556Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$555.85
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$354Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$246
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+117.6%+$122.66
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$90.63
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$584Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+87.4%+$510.22
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$291Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$290.81
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+168.4%+$171.08
Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.08
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$299Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$299.24
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,159Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+25.4%+$294.26
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.4
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+280.4%+$50.82
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Showing 25 of 362 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 7, 2026, EDT9745.4%44 W · 53 L+5.9wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+0.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Commodities — the 97 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$1,415Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+1,228.3%+$17,375.59
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$166Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+164.5%+$272.77
Will there be between 28 and 30 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$273Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$273.45
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+85.5%+$15.3
Will 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$354Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+59.9%+$212.01
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$630Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$420
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$585Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$584.99
Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$2,294Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,293.76
Will there be between 60 and 80 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.92
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$501Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$500.54
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$1,444Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,443.76
Will there be fewer than 25 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$111.6
Will there be between 31 and 33 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$56.63
Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.11
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$5,193Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+95.3%+$4,951.21
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.1
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$208Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$207.76
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$14
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$1,316Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,315.8
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$262Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$362.44
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$486Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$486.37
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,212Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,212.02
Will fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$2,751Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,751.45
Will 225 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$261Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$261
Will 175-199 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$122.41
Showing 25 of 97 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT7931.6%25 W · 54 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+32.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 79 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SAVE America Act becomes law by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$977Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$976.95
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$662Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$661.88
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+591.9%+$371.27
Will Trump visit China by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$3,484Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+64.2%+$2,236.99
Will Trump visit China by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,461Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+32.4%+$472.99
Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$5,885Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+116.9%+$6,879.18
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 29-30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.04
Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$8,922Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$8,922.38
Will the DHS shutdown last 52 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$357Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$357.03
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$1,265Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,265.03
Will the DHS shutdown last 48 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.82
Will the DHS shutdown end between March 28-31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+121.7%+$219.6
Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$8,778Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$8,778.39
Will Ron Johnson vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.94
Will the DHS shutdown end before April 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$881Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$720.78
Will the DHS shutdown end between March 24-27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$697Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$697.45
Will the DHS shutdown end between March 12-15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Will the DHS shutdown last 30 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$3,338Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,337.95
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$810Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$809.95
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$243Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$243.47
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$8,520Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+46.8%+$3,991.05
Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,120Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+46.1%+$516.66
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$19,040Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+868.8%+$165,418.91
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$80
US government shutdown Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$2,792Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+63.9%+$1,785.32
Showing 25 of 79 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT646.3%4 W · 60 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-35.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 64 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$1,445Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+2,320.8%+$33,533.85
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$2,336Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,335.62
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$385Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$384.6
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$1,292Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,291.54
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Cavaliers vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$1,693Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,693.23
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.99
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$508Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$507.51
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$2,582Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,582.17
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$420Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$419.8
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$33
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$130
Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$183Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$183.11
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$103.5
Will Jaylen Brown win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$110.39
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$361Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$360.8
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$189Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$189.2
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
Pistons vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$827Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$826.99
Pistons vs. Spursbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$251Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$251.08
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$157.01
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$970Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$970.05
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$476Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$476.12
Showing 25 of 64 picks, newest first.
Ukrainelast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT4517.8%8 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 45 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.38
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$358Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$358.47
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$299.56
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$48
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$221Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$220.95
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$268Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$268.28
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$411Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$411.03
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$812Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$811.73
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$324Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$323.62
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,638Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,637.67
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$390Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$1,109.98
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$292Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+1,232.3%+$3,600.49
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$9,108Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+627.3%+$57,136.32
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$1,542Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+154.8%+$2,386.68
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$784Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$616
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by March 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.66
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$461Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$461.47
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$10,133Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10,133.09
Will Trump meet with Putin by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$142.02
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$1,220Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,219.9
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$3,890Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$3,890.48
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$120
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$1,026Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,025.91
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$6,151Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$6,151
Showing 25 of 45 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT3426.5%9 W · 25 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+36.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 34 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$249.74
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$1,309Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,308.92
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$1,493Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,492.91
Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$855Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$854.75
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$560Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+54.4%+$304.21
Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate advance to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary be affiliated with the Democratic Party?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$551Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$551.09
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$268Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$268
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$72
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+566.7%+$1,020
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$322Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+566.7%+$1,825.79
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$1,995Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,995.38
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$741Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$740.92
Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$378Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+59.2%+$223.83
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$1,218Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+60.1%+$731.99
Will Mikie Sherrill win by 9-12%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$700Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$700.17
Will Mikie Sherrill win by 6-9%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$487Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$487.16
Will Mikie Sherrill win by less than 3%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$6,235Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$6,235
Will Jay Jones win the 2025 Virginia Attorney General election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$661Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$661.21
Will Jason Miyares win the 2025 Virginia Attorney General election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$167Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$167.16
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$255Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$254.92
Bernie Sanders votes to confirm RFK Jr?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$690Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2025, EST-100%-$690
Will John Fetterman vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$1,466Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$1,465.77
Will Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$1,235Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$1,235.22
Will Lisa Murkowski vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$307Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST+1,200.8%+$3,692.49
Showing 25 of 34 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 7, 2026, EDT244.2%1 W · 23 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick1cpaid-41.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$297Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+1,312.2%+$3,902.58
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.66
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.89
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$29
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$172Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$172.45
Will Tommy Paul win the 2026 Men's French Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.33
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$72
Will Alex De Minaur win the 2026 Men's French Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Stefanos Tsitsipas win the 2026 Men's French Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.33
Will Ugo Humbert win the 2026 Men's French Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.1
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Men's French Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$121
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's French Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$97.77
Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win the 2025 US Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.12
Will Alex de Minaur win the 2025 US Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$140
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 US Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2025 US Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$580Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$580
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2025 US Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$36.65
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 US Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$350
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$380Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$380
Will Cameron Norrie win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$66.67
Will Karen Khachanov win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.33
Will Alex de Minaur win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$155.55
Will Andrey Rublev win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$44.44
All 24 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2025, EDT229.1%2 W · 20 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during October press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.3
Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during October press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$219Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$219.28
Will Powell say "Median" during June Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$538Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$537.88
Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during the May meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$105.46
Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 50 or more times during the May meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$62.99
Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 60 or more times during the May meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$68.1
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$92
Will Jerome Powell say "recession" during the May meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$218Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$218
Will Jerome Powell say "Unemployment" 8 or more times during the March meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$1,050Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,049.99
Will Jerome Powell say "Inflation" 40 or more times during the March meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.87
Will Jerome Powell say "Price" 15 or more times during the March meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$70.75
Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" 5 or more times during the March meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$225Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$225.25
Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" during the March meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$246Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$246.11
Will Jerome Powell say "Immigrant" or "Immigration" during the March meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$930Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$930
Will Powell say "cut" 7 or more times during January press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$713Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$713.07
Will Powell say "price" 15 or more times during January press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$155.17
Will Powell say "growth" 8 or more times during January press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST+314.9%+$380.84
Will Powell say "inflation" 50 or more times during January press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$151Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST+900%+$1,357.07
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$210
Will Powell say "tariff" during January press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$816Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$816.48
Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during December FOMC Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$2,703Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$2,702.97
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$380Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$380.32
All 22 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST170%0 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
College Football — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Oregon win the 2026 College Football National Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$52.22
Will Alabama win the 2026 College Football National Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$33.89
Will Texas A&M win the 2026 College Football National Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$14.41
LSU vs. Oklahomabacked LSU · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$1,986Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$1,985.79
Northwestern vs. Penn Statebacked Penn State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$1,512Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,512.02
Will Texas win the 2025 College Football Playoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$770Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2025, EST-100%-$769.54
Will Penn State win the 2025 College Football Playoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$674Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST-100%-$673.83
Will Georgia win the 2025 College Football Playoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$371Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2025, EST-100%-$371.47
Will Clemson win the 2025 College Football Playoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$408Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2024, EST-100%-$408
Will Ashton Jeanty win the Heisman Trophy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$316Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST-100%-$315.93
Will Travis Hunter win the Heisman Trophy?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$256Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST-100%-$255.61
Will Cam Ward win the Heisman Trophy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$259Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST-100%-$259.16
Will Miami (FL) win the 2025 College Football Playoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST-100%-$122.64
Will Alabama win the 2025 College Football Playoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST-100%-$141.48
Will Colorado beat Utah?backed Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST-100%-$120
Will Texas A&M beat LSU?backed LSU · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$207Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2024, EDT-100%-$207
Will Kansas State beat Kansas?backed Kansas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$900Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2024, EDT-100%-$900
All 17 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Nov 23, 2025, EST1520%3 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-35.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Giants vs. Lionsbacked Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$4,458Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+85.2%+$3,797.41
Bears vs. Commandersbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$2,000Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT+400%+$8,000
Eagles vs. Giantsbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$974Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$973.86
Patriots vs. Billsbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$1,884Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,884.37
Will Abdul Carter be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$662Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$662.26
Will Josh Allen win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$4,320Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2025, EST+177.8%+$7,679.99
Will another player win NFL MVP for the 2024-2025 season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2025, EST-100%-$60.68
Will Dan Campbell win NFL Coach of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$332Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2025, EST-100%-$331.86
Will Kevin O'Connell win NFL Coach of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2025, EST-100%-$175
Will Sean Payton win NFL Coach of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2025, EST-100%-$58.62
Will Dan Quinn win NFL Coach of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2025, EST-100%-$140.89
Vikings vs. Jaguarsbacked Jaguars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$358Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$357.62
Cowboys vs. 49ersbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$654Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2024, EDT-100%-$653.6
Packers vs. Jaguarsbacked Jaguars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2024, EDT-100%-$350
Titans vs. Lionsbacked Titans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$865Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2024, EDT-100%-$865.41
All 15 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT1464.3%9 W · 5 L+3.3wins+0.24per pick41cpaid+75.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$5,054Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,053.58
Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$147.6
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$354Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+347.7%+$1,229.59
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+521.9%+$697.47
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$12,029Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+211.1%+$25,394.74
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$1,014Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,013.59
Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$272Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$128
Will Trump say "Farmer" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$4
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$785Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+40.1%+$314.99
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$430Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+51.2%+$220.11
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$2,291Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+50.9%+$1,164.99
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.36
Will Donald Trump not visit China by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.53
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$171Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$170.61
All 14 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2025, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.27per pick10cpaid+339.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Aug 2, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick5cpaid+60.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Oct 11, 2025, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+60.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Tigers vs. Marinersbacked Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$416Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$416.1
Phillies vs. Dodgersbacked Phillies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$1,944Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,943.99
Phillies vs. Dodgersbacked Phillies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$990Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2025, EDT+203%+$2,010
New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jaysbacked New York Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$574Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT+237.8%+$1,363.79
All 4 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Oct 21, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Feb 11, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+179.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$7,938Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+179.1%+$14,216.17
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.