Middle East · resolved market
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c143e33cb924ee4390e7a249894582a0c2be01d4c56483d494788845f77def1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $96,869
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,504
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,869 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked No | 4c | 6,190$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.18 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 1c | 5,510$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa551…e050backed Yes | 30c | 4,376$1,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,064.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.48per pick | 19cpaid | +279.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes | 13c | 3,732$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,236.55 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e4…4ec7backed Yes | 15c | 3,691$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,126.24 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +121%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fa…aeecbacked No | 3c | 3,418$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.22 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 12c | 3,209$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,833.95 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…41f0backed Yes | 35c | 2,502$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,617.45 | 157 | 40.1%63 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 19c | 1,803$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,466.34 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…8c1cbacked Yes | 49c | 1,775$877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.96 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -23%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 19c | 1,659$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,336.63 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 21c | 1,513$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,197.51 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 22c | 1,481$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,161.41 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 11c | 1,262$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,124.44 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 21c | 1,184$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$935.39 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 39c | 1,088$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.52 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,063$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.02 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9c…dee4backed Yes | 50c | 1,006$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.87 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…2a1fbacked Yes | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.82 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | +15.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 34c | 978.34$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.37 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4491…ce4fbacked No | 73c | 913.55$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67b0…89d3backed Yes | 26c | 887.55$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.53 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7a…6875backed Yes | 27c | 826.34$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.04 | 75 | 20%15 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…22a3backed Yes | 33c | 791.37$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.99 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59f8…70ccbacked Yes | 35c | 744.23$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.89 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 30c | 705.04$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.82 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…492cbacked No | 71c | 688.36$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.69 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 76c | 651.85$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 28c | 625$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.52 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 23c | 614.38$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.71 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27e9…39b2backed No | 8c | 613.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 13c | 610.14$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.32 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 56c | 600$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 40c | 595.62$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.37 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd324…b23cbacked Yes | 36c | 592.88$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.88 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1c…e801backed Yes | 29c | 523.01$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.01 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…7822backed Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a7…7674backed Yes | 29c | 497$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.6 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 58cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…9627backed Yes | 22c | 455.45$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.45 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 9c | 423.09$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.81 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf63a…5d80backed No | 16c | 404.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.55 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d77…af31backed Yes | 13c | 400$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.3 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 17c | 359.18$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.02 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 20c | 350$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…224dbacked Yes | 35c | 330$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…8eb7backed No | 61c | 326.96$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +100.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed Yes | 28c | 324.15$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked Yes | 28c | 321.68$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.68 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…3975backed Yes | 28c | 270$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.3 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4c…d6a2backed Yes | 17c | 264.64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.64 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 27c | 262.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.41 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07f2…ee29backed Yes | 19c | 260$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.6 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9986…27aebacked No | 40c | 257.82$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.72 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 21c | 231$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.26 | 223 | 33.2%74 W · 149 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 39c | 229.68$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.65 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed Yes | 9c | 228.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.53 | 201 | 31.8%64 W · 137 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…450abacked No | 64c | 220$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.4 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e4…b4aabacked Yes | 29c | 212.05$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc7…4ad4backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +20.7wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4e09…d784backed No | 54c | 199.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…beccbacked Yes | 36c | 199.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 27c | 186.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.07 | 272 | 33.8%92 W · 180 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 16c | 181$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.91 | 171 | 11.7%20 W · 151 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ab…8253backed No | 61c | 176.46$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 28c | 174.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.46 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1336…7b1ebacked Yes | 48c | 160.45$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 15c | 160$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.9 | 194 | 49.5%96 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 10c | 156$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.4 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…53f7backed Yes | 24c | 155$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.1 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 9c | 154.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 123 | 25.2%31 W · 92 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x283d…221abacked Yes | 28c | 153.05$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.63 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x393b…6899backed Yes | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +4.3wins | +0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 75c | 148$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.49 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb74b…b853backed Yes | 21c | 143.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.91 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5f…5449backed Yes | 41c | 140.24$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.74 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked Yes | 19c | 140$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.4 | 131 | 38.2%50 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…ecadbacked Yes | 22c | 131.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.32 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked No | 78c | 128.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…43d7backed Yes | 32c | 125$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x593a…b9f4backed Yes | 33c | 123.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +207.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Yes | 19c | 120$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.2 | 196 | 41.8%82 W · 114 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 61c | 112.24$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.01 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8932…eb14backed Yes | 43c | 109.92$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.92 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +4.8wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 43c | 108.54$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.79 | 196 | 39.8%78 W · 118 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x649b…dadcbacked Yes | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +117.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7494…e2a3backed Yes | 49c | 102.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.24 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 30c | 100.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.09 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf59…deb0backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 65c | 92$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.09 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7770…518dbacked No | 77c | 91$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3a…cdddbacked Yes | 12c | 83.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.41 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 13c | 83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.21 | 186 | 40.9%76 W · 110 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…c11cbacked Yes | 24c | 82.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf53a…7970backed Yes | 39c | 77.53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.93 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x87fc…1515backed Yes | 34c | 76.45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.45 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…2320backed Yes | 37c | 68.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +172.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3270…e011backed Yes | 45c | 60.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29a1…5645backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?this page
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 11?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 14?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 16?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 17?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 18?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 19?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 20?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 21?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 22?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 24?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 25?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 27?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 28?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 29?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 31?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.