Middle East · resolved market
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e97a760229f1b1d9a1682d0f4d0c659cfb9e386baacc010f57f5f52be4dff95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,580
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,492
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,580 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 4c | 3,650$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.6 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…7b4dbacked Yes | 25c | 3,287$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.1 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf63a…5d80backed Yes | 49c | 2,204$1,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,073.12 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 12c | 1,212$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.7 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 11c | 1,204$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.1 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61e7…6e8bbacked No | 67c | 748.16$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.16 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…41f0backed Yes | 53c | 746.28$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.07 | 157 | 40.1%63 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…e8babacked Yes | 29c | 716.84$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +168.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff52…4546backed No | 30c | 699.97$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.98 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1c…e801backed No | 46c | 677.13$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.13 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…ed19backed No | 47c | 638.89$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.43 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 53c | 620.88$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.93 | 154 | 34.4%53 W · 101 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 604.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…9627backed Yes | 32c | 562.5$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…2a1fbacked Yes | 20c | 495.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.86 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | +15.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc96e…f1f9backed No | 80c | 444.32$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.81 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…a495backed No | 64c | 387.66$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.09 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 76c | 363$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.09 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…7822backed Yes | 26c | 346.18$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.51 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ee…e021backed Yes | 34c | 330$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.7 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 22c | 329.76$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.64 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x378a…a638backed Yes | 70c | 312.65$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…4ee4backed Yes | 66c | 293$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.28 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…0306backed Yes | 70c | 278.57$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 17c | 264.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 36c | 260.24$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.6 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 48c | 250$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.45 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 7c | 244.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…752abacked Yes | 42c | 240$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a9…97babacked Yes | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 33c | 237.53$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.19 | 223 | 33.2%74 W · 149 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 37c | 230$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x67b0…89d3backed Yes | 32c | 228.85$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.23 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x31f2…f75fbacked No | 35c | 206.49$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.49 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +30%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked No | 43c | 202.08$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.15 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…b245backed Yes | 63c | 201.13$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.76 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 30c | 201.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.28 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…450abacked No | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d84…2c67backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d77…af31backed Yes | 67c | 199.98$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.99 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 16c | 198$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e4…4ec7backed Yes | 46c | 196.33$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.32 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +121%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…276cbacked Yes | 66c | 190.91$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.57 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07f2…ee29backed Yes | 59c | 190$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.8 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 63c | 177.83$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.88 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b9…40bfbacked Yes | 50c | 168.24$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.35 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…c8e4backed Yes | 64c | 156.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41c9…716bbacked Yes | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a32…1ce5backed Yes | 69c | 144.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +157.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 15c | 130.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 64c | 127.88$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.39 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 49c | 121.39$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.88 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac83…f49dbacked Yes | 66c | 121.21$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f15…f295backed Yes | 61c | 116.83$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.97 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3a…cdddbacked Yes | 15c | 114.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 15c | 111$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 68c | 109.55$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 40c | 109.09$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.91 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…c17dbacked Yes | 52c | 103.3$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.84 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 26c | 102.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 173 | 59.5%103 W · 70 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4930…82abbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd33c…0b81backed Yes | 52c | 96.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +229.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe23…937bbacked Yes | 46c | 91.45$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.07 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…3975backed Yes | 53c | 90.72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.77 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 47c | 90.52$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.17 | 267 | 56.2%150 W · 117 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x525a…7f07backed Yes | 36c | 87.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 15c | 84.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…8eb7backed Yes | 49c | 84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.76 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +100.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 13c | 83.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 34c | 80.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 17c | 78.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 129 | 18.6%24 W · 105 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x061e…5ab8backed Yes | 67c | 74.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7575…c9c1backed No | 71c | 72.44$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…ac79backed No | 57c | 70.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…2e07backed Yes | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bf…75b5backed No | 78c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e61…19bdbacked Yes | 51c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd3…354ebacked No | 79c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 19c | 64.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 186 | 40.9%76 W · 110 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca5…80f5backed No | 54c | 63.8$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc7…4ad4backed Yes | 65c | 61.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +20.7wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb731…5797backed No | 41c | 61.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.22 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x475e…3a28backed Yes | 42c | 59.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -42%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x708d…ea78backed Yes | 52c | 56.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87fc…1515backed Yes | 45c | 56.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdeec…a386backed No | 71c | 55.28$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 40c | 53.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86dd…1af2backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 164 | 33.5%55 W · 109 L | -19.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked Yes | 35c | 48.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 131 | 38.2%50 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf89e…b571backed No | 79c | 48.32$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddaa…f46bbacked Yes | 33c | 46.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 46.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78c5…f623backed No | 51c | 45.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 38c | 44.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 62c | 43.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b22…3a92backed Yes | 42c | 43.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae6b…597cbacked Yes | 36c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd113…862ebacked Yes | 33c | 34.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 24?this page
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 11?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 14?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 16?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 17?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 18?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 19?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 20?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 21?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 22?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 25?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 27?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 28?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 29?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 31?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.