Middle East · resolved market
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b98ff3ef0422c7c37c03f17ab586b5e27fc46a2c006f2aa092042f5cef98fae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,353
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,107
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,353 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 14c | 2,848$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.04 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 21c | 1,988$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.81 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed No | 70c | 1,666$1,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.41 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…41f0backed Yes | 31c | 1,664$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.87 | 157 | 40.1%63 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes | 14c | 1,560$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.42 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 12c | 1,498$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.26 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x836f…906ebacked No | 80c | 1,141$908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.21 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +4.5wins | +0.34per pick | 58cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…7822backed Yes | 25c | 1,092$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.5 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 3c | 1,021$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 3c | 1,018$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…9627backed Yes | 22c | 818.18$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed Yes | 16c | 666.67$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…f0fbbacked Yes | 37c | 595.14$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.2 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd599…6a46backed Yes | 9c | 534.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7a…6875backed Yes | 50c | 489.3$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.65 | 75 | 20%15 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 17c | 488.31$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.51 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 17c | 435.88$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.34 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf847…f0a2backed No | 64c | 434.99$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 13c | 387.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 17c | 351.62$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.37 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67b0…89d3backed Yes | 30c | 320.34$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.51 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4930…82abbacked Yes | 29c | 302.23$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.46 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…2a1fbacked Yes | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.93 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | +15.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 47c | 277.34$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.29 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 45c | 269.03$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.55 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 37c | 250$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…a495backed No | 75c | 246.67$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.67 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd416…d9e2backed No | 67c | 242.98$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.98 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 15c | 229.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 46c | 227$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.66 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 14c | 219.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 203.34$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d77…af31backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.68 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a22…fca9backed Yes | 51c | 199.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e4…4ec7backed Yes | 39c | 179.33$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.89 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +121%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 14c | 175.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a9…97babacked Yes | 39c | 168.09$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4856…86debacked Yes | 24c | 167.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a5…2b85backed Yes | 36c | 162$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x283d…221abacked Yes | 38c | 156.09$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.34 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b9…40bfbacked Yes | 51c | 154$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.78 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 34c | 153$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.67 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 42c | 150.19$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.66 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked Yes | 43c | 139.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf97c…bef3backed Yes | 36c | 130$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…4e57backed Yes | 39c | 128.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaccc…a483backed Yes | 41c | 123.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07f2…ee29backed Yes | 36c | 120$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86dd…1af2backed Yes | 28c | 116.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 164 | 33.5%55 W · 109 L | -19.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x87fc…1515backed Yes | 35c | 115.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 51c | 111.09$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.43 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 50c | 103.95$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.49 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 173 | 59.5%103 W · 70 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebb…0614backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -12.4wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -50%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes | 14c | 99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 62c | 93$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.68 | 337 | 41.2%139 W · 198 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd3…1a5abacked Yes | 16c | 92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a3…962fbacked Yes | 32c | 90$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 13c | 85.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18e2…99d9backed Yes | 36c | 85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7770…518dbacked No | 70c | 85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f74…1ec6backed Yes | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 28c | 75.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…6fd2backed Yes | 26c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…ac79backed No | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…2e07backed Yes | 21c | 70.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed Yes | 29c | 64.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e4…b4aabacked Yes | 30c | 61.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 62c | 58$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f0…c172backed Yes | 36c | 57.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…3975backed Yes | 38c | 51.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeac2…2922backed Yes | 50c | 51.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed Yes | 55c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 115 | 59.1%68 W · 47 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…53f7backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1b…634ebacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25f…870ebacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf53a…7970backed Yes | 50c | 47.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…d83bbacked No | 53c | 47.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca5…80f5backed Yes | 34c | 47.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb477…673ebacked No | 78c | 46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a43…67dcbacked Yes | 23c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3b…cfe1backed No | 52c | 41.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +290.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x475e…3a28backed Yes | 49c | 40.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -42%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7f…6413backed Yes | 32c | 35.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Yes | 38c | 35.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x308f…8607backed No | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd6…2784backed No | 49c | 34.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x525a…7f07backed Yes | 33c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95cf…e7ddbacked No | 64c | 31.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee1c…51b9backed Yes | 37c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…9c65backed Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9b…6dd9backed Yes | 51c | 26.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +128.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf13f…31cbbacked No | 50c | 24.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dff…9143backed No | 52c | 22.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ea…52c7backed Yes | 51c | 22.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce9…7115backed No | 66c | 22.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?this page
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 11?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 14?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 16?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 17?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 18?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 19?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 20?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 21?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 22?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 24?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 25?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 27?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 28?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 29?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 31?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.