Middle East · resolved market
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76a8d25cb68a81ff5f36264ff4d74ba09000db7b469877967bd255fc00d3cdac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,551
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,571
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,551 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes | 12c | 1,001$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.6 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc96e…f1f9backed No | 67c | 865.25$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.95 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 27c | 820$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.5 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b4…b21ebacked Yes | 49c | 805.4$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.09 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61e7…6e8bbacked No | 35c | 705.33$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.36 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff99…5602backed Yes | 68c | 680.95$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.68 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 58c | 656.63$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.63 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…7822backed Yes | 53c | 593$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.52 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…33c0backed Yes | 55c | 566.86$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.19 | 88 | 29.5%26 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…983ebacked Yes | 23c | 526.86$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 64c | 506.79$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.81 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9da…aa1cbacked No | 74c | 483.54$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.54 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed No | 61c | 477$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.58 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 15c | 469.69$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.33 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…ac79backed Yes | 38c | 424.85$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 24c | 415.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.07 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 20c | 405.59$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.79 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 23c | 398.67$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.12 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 52c | 391.81$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.17 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 57c | 380.07$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.32 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 36c | 364.67$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.7 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b2…2ebebacked Yes | 58c | 345.91$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63e3…f341backed Yes | 58c | 344.93$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked Yes | 67c | 318.99$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.37 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…ed19backed No | 37c | 315.55$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.55 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 24c | 309.64$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.12 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b67…b814backed Yes | 77c | 291.89$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.76 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +117.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 14c | 288.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 70c | 287.35$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.2 | 90 | 57.8%52 W · 38 L | +11.2wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed No | 37c | 284.58$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.78 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1c…e801backed No | 38c | 269.29$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.29 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f7…e19fbacked Yes | 62c | 263.02$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.64 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa982…09f1backed Yes | 38c | 260.74$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.58 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…f0fbbacked Yes | 25c | 250$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 19c | 249.21$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.35 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 31c | 241.47$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.8 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 54c | 239.82$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.69 | 267 | 56.2%150 W · 117 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x929a…5ab4backed No | 51c | 223.53$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.53 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 55c | 220$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 49c | 210$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.1 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…aedfbacked Yes | 34c | 203.36$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05df…882dbacked No | 30c | 197.17$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.61 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32d8…e86bbacked Yes | 21c | 188.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -69%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe6…2769backed Yes | 55c | 182.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked No | 78c | 173.35$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.95 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6584…d1c6backed Yes | 61c | 167.3$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b9…40bfbacked Yes | 64c | 163.98$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.65 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 36c | 153.16$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.02 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…4b33backed No | 43c | 148.05$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.88 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…beccbacked Yes | 69c | 146$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86dd…1af2backed No | 40c | 145.44$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.97 | 164 | 33.5%55 W · 109 L | -19.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1baf…ed2dbacked No | 69c | 145.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…821fbacked Yes | 60c | 129.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.65 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb5…9d52backed Yes | 77c | 129.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64d8…daeabacked Yes | 38c | 126.06$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.57 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +6.4wins | +0.32per pick | 33cpaid | +166.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5a…b95dbacked No | 41c | 121.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.19 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a3…962fbacked Yes | 42c | 120$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c94…2e06backed Yes | 65c | 118.77$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.33 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…224dbacked Yes | 60c | 114.25$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.32 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67b0…89d3backed Yes | 35c | 113.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No | 64c | 104.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.06 | 216 | 31.9%69 W · 147 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1c…5fe8backed Yes | 40c | 102.87$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.24per pick | 28cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca5…80f5backed No | 37c | 101.2$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.42 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…2a1fbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | +15.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 272 | 33.8%92 W · 180 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2db7…8f9bbacked Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 77c | 99.98$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…3ddabacked No | 78c | 99.98$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…8aabbacked No | 58c | 98.8$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 91 | 31.9%29 W · 62 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…2e07backed Yes | 18c | 97.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed Yes | 19c | 91.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 201 | 31.8%64 W · 137 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…450abacked No | 40c | 90$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked No | 28c | 87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.43 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe807…4d35backed Yes | 75c | 84.87$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.51 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496a…d78dbacked Yes | 37c | 81.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…439ebacked Yes | 22c | 80.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb557…ef84backed Yes | 44c | 78.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…9188backed No | 32c | 73.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.04 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c1…16c0backed No | 34c | 72.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.71 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -7.9wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7792…273fbacked Yes | 69c | 71.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7a…8465backed No | 29c | 69.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +187.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 26c | 68.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.82 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 50c | 68.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8544…6e35backed No | 39c | 65.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 29c | 65.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.97 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 42c | 60.31$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.69 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed No | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…ed99backed No | 66c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +119.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef1d…028ebacked Yes | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0805…0bb1backed Yes | 55c | 54.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa48c…5506backed No | 40c | 54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 32c | 52.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…4347backed No | 34c | 51.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d7…9fbabacked No | 25c | 50.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 114 | 18.4%21 W · 93 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 27c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 223 | 33.2%74 W · 149 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc83…37efbacked No | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 49.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 60c | 48.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 16?this page
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 11?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 14?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 17?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 18?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 19?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 20?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 21?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 22?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 24?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 25?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 27?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 28?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 29?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 31?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.