TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0d05…6a81

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
514
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Middle East, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 53 out of 100; worst Commodities at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 28, 2026, EDT43212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 432 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.29
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.54
Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.8
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.47
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.21
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$81.35
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$168Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT+58.8%+$99.08
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.13
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.33
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.99
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$567Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$566.71
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.83
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+54.3%+$43.87
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$71
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.06
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$281Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT+43.9%+$123.55
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$116.03
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.7
Kurds declare independence from Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.73
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$1,243Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,243.21
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.86
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.54
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$78.66
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.32
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14,634Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14,634.18
Showing 25 of 432 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST368.3%3 W · 33 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-82.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 36 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$881Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$881.36
Another US military action against Iran before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$272Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$272.11
US forces in Yemen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20.04
Gaza mass population relocation in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$73.35
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+94.2%+$91.14
Will Trump visit the Western Wall by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.77
Will Trump visit Egypt by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.95
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.77
Will Trump visit Israel by October 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$102.65
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$394Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$393.64
US-Iran nuclear deal before September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$41
US x Iran nuclear talks resume before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.1
Israel military action against Iran in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$589Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$589.28
US-Iran nuclear deal before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$39.72
Another US military action against Iran before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$456Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$455.67
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$83.57
U.S. refuels Israeli jets for strikes on Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.51
US military action on Yemen before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$603Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$603.17
Trump exits Iran nuclear negotiations before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$401Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$401
Will the U.S. take over Gaza before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.8
U.S. forces in Gaza before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.65
Another US military action against Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$213Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$213.11
US-Iran nuclear deal before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$673Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$673.05
Another US military action against Iran by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.49
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June  23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$451Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT+183.7%+$829.39
Showing 25 of 36 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT195.3%1 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick13cpaid-92.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Commodities — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$132
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$178Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$177.82
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$379Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$379.26
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$104.04
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.48
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$102.44
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$417Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$416.67
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.7
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.53
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$804Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$804.42
Will Iran strike Dimona by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$101.14
Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$828Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+46.4%+$383.73
Will Iran strike Ruwais Refinery by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$48
Will Iran strike Gulf oil facilities before September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$60.02
Will Iran strike Gulf oil facilities before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$1,858Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,857.62
Will Iran strike gulf oil facilities in October? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$99.15
All 19 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Feb 5, 2026, EST119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick5cpaid-42.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump announces new drug boat strike by February 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+530.2%+$124.75
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$40.5
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$13.54
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$50.59
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$37.49
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$12
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$55.95
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$34.22
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$84.55
Maduro out by November 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$50.88
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
All 11 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2026, EST714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+29.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$86.56
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$94
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$89
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$70.29
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+809.1%+$180.76
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$42.75
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$28.95
All 7 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Oct 13, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$791Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$791.09
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$58
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.56
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$571Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$570.76
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mayhem (Lady Gaga) win Album of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 5, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump publicly disparage Elon before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.13
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.