Middle East · resolved market
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18746e8981ab71f72626d1d34684037f8a7c8becd8e580e2cfc0cb00e590a532
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,683
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,433
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,683 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 31c | 5,834$1,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800.8 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed Yes | 6c | 3,151$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes | 11c | 2,908$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.44 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 1c | 2,358$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 114 | 6.1%7 W · 107 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,093$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 69c | 1,679$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.53 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 11c | 1,609$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.13 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 20c | 1,155$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.01 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 4c | 1,100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.69 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 1,090$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75a…fdecbacked Yes | 31c | 987.27$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.68 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 69c | 982.74$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.18 | 181 | 35.9%65 W · 116 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83f1…1936backed Yes | 11c | 942.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x708d…ea78backed No | 70c | 714.32$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.71 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 5c | 599.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 120 | 37.5%45 W · 75 L | +9.1wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f2…6c8ebacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 40c | 487.27$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.1 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb23e…829abacked No | 72c | 486.86$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.1 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 11c | 485.84$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.22 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 33c | 443.76$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.34 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 9c | 400$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 18c | 400$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.81 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd8…1de3backed Yes | 9c | 400$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 14c | 389.04$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.52 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 10c | 381.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a83…7e38backed Yes | 55c | 378.76$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.92 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +293.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35a4…7b85backed No | 70c | 364.56$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.77 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked No | 79c | 301$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.82 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1682…26cabacked Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 291.04$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 6c | 280$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0787…0ca3backed Yes | 7c | 246.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +8.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62bc…97acbacked Yes | 4c | 243.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2940…304cbacked Yes | 30c | 221$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.26 | 161 | 31.7%51 W · 110 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea9…7a25backed Yes | 22c | 201.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 22c | 200$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fb…58e2backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ead…f333backed Yes | 27c | 198.66$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 22c | 161.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 87 | 21.8%19 W · 68 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8792…4174backed No | 79c | 146.47$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 44c | 145.08$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.51 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 33c | 125.55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 10c | 123.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 45c | 122.71$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.49 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +9.6wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2e…d3cabacked Yes | 23c | 112.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +6.9wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +188%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc72c…a0e7backed Yes | 17c | 99.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b22…74ecbacked Yes | 12c | 88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 114 | 32.5%37 W · 77 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 68c | 82.22$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 174 | 49.4%86 W · 88 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02b1…fb65backed Yes | 17c | 80.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…6e5dbacked No | 78c | 72.73$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a3…962fbacked Yes | 19c | 66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43ab…1501backed Yes | 30c | 53.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 75c | 52.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 99 | 81.8%81 W · 18 L | +9.7wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 42c | 48.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 26c | 40.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba1f…4258backed Yes | 39c | 36.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 57c | 24.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…0f0ebacked No | 77c | 19.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -6.4wins | -0.20per pick | 64cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…bff4backed No | 76c | 13.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 68cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 8?this page
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 10?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 11?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 14?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 15?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 16?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 17?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 19?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 1?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 20?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 21?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 23?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 24?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 28?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 29?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 2?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 30?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 31?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 3?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 4?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 5?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 6?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 7?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 9?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on June 26?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on June 27?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on June 28?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on June 29?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.