TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Iran successfully targets shipping on July 21?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,471
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,813

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,471 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes0c10,072$11 inLost-$11.4743212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f7…e19fbacked Yes7c5,000$350 inLost-$3503040%12 W · 18 L+4.3wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+26.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes22c500$110 inLost-$1102718.5%5 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x845e…d22bbacked Yes78c322.99$253 inLost-$253.133040%12 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6725…1bf9backed No28c239.51$66 inWon+$173.515644.6%25 W · 31 L+8.7wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+109.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd189…1b33backed Yes10c180$17 inLost-$17.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes75c174.4$131 inLost-$13134440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes8c143.39$11 inLost-$11.4721726.7%58 W · 159 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-33.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5144…37c9backed No14c121$17 inWon+$104.065244.2%23 W · 29 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+20.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf030…27bfbacked No13c100$13 inWon+$8711418.4%21 W · 93 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc713…f0bcbacked Yes68c32.86$22 inLost-$22.41442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.15per pick58cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No46c30$14 inWon+$16.3285725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x2d98…b354backed Yes53c20$11 inLost-$10.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.