TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Iran successfully targets shipping on July 15?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,745
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,142

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,745 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xad52…11acbacked Yes13c849.55$109 inLost-$108.5844224.4%108 W · 334 L+22.2wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x587c…9c4ebacked Yes10c350.52$35 inLost-$3530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes10c245.45$25 inLost-$2538237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8ae…8eb7backed No65c200$129 inWon+$712653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+100.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes8c195$16 inLost-$1630635.9%110 W · 196 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes55c180.27$100 inLost-$10024149.4%119 W · 122 L+1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9352…2227backed Yes13c145$18 inLost-$18.4512341.5%51 W · 72 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1733…9411backed Yes59c112.71$66 inLost-$66.52552%13 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No65c107.13$70 inWon+$36.9942311.6%49 W · 374 L-2.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30db…33c0backed Yes50c100$50 inLost-$508829.5%26 W · 62 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid+22.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb70…01c0backed No59c100$59 inWon+$41.53060%18 W · 12 L+4.7wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+82%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1a83…7e38backed Yes63c97.9$62 inLost-$61.681942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+293.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes11c95.15$11 inLost-$10.933741.2%139 W · 198 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xac76…9359backed No66c86$57 inWon+$29.226756.2%150 W · 117 L+12.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5144…37c9backed Yes35c85.71$30 inLost-$305244.2%23 W · 29 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+20.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85df…fb48backed Yes34c78.07$27 inLost-$26.692240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes24c77.9$18 inLost-$18.4220823.1%48 W · 160 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2589…bb9cbacked Yes32c75.98$24 inLost-$24837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-32.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7118…f07cbacked Yes24c66.48$16 inLost-$15.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x853c…bd03backed Yes33c42.22$14 inLost-$13.9313441.8%56 W · 78 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb731…5797backed No65c30.77$20 inWon+$10.774761.7%29 W · 18 L+5.4wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+44.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe809…039bbacked Yes34c30$10 inLost-$10.216832.1%54 W · 114 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes35c28.65$10 inLost-$10.1785725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x6eb5…8353backed Yes64c20.63$13 inLost-$13.21353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+45.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.