Middle East · resolved market
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x526e3e1b3439185f1a7a6eda6d53f42c4fc8799578d06c990aef96794f878617
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,388
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,654
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,388 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21f7…e19fbacked No | 1c | 4,690$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc96e…f1f9backed No | 11c | 3,428$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.58 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca16…f878backed No | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed No | 1c | 949.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked No | 2c | 782.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…b949backed No | 2c | 699.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…9411backed Yes | 32c | 667.43$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.17 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 13c | 541.96$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.7 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x101c…15a3backed No | 3c | 496.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 67c | 400$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeffe…5efabacked No | 77c | 258.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 9c | 231.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.4 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | +22.6wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 80c | 201.39$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9352…2227backed Yes | 13c | 187$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.69 | 123 | 41.5%51 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0e…b936backed No | 11c | 183.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…6fd2backed No | 13c | 168.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb70…01c0backed No | 48c | 145.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +4.7wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +82%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b0…a5fbbacked No | 11c | 139.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 166 | 48.2%80 W · 86 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd7…96d3backed No | 14c | 102.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 12c | 89.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.3 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 60c | 88.31$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.55 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 63c | 76.56$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.46 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02b1…fb65backed Yes | 39c | 51.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 73c | 49.09$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 78c | 42.17$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 66c | 39.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 267 | 56.2%150 W · 117 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ab…8253backed No | 79c | 38.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 186 | 40.9%76 W · 110 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 14?this page
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 10?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 11?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 15?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 16?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 17?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 19?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 1?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 20?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 21?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 23?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 24?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 28?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 29?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 2?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 30?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 31?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 3?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 4?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 5?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 6?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 7?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 8?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 9?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on June 26?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on June 27?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on June 28?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on June 29?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.