TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Iran successfully targets shipping on July 19?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,349
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,988

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,349 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes0c10,014$10 inLost-$10.2143212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked Yes12c1,005$123 inLost-$122.967538.7%29 W · 46 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed Yes13c769.23$100 inLost-$10033337.5%125 W · 208 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x853c…bd03backed Yes9c736$69 inLost-$68.613441.8%56 W · 78 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked No49c350.2$173 inWon+$176.9540939.6%162 W · 247 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x30db…33c0backed Yes50c200$100 inLost-$1008829.5%26 W · 62 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid+22.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21f7…e19fbacked Yes51c199.99$102 inLost-$1023040%12 W · 18 L+4.3wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+26.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x37e6…f35cbacked No61c56.9$34 inWon+$22.4618639.8%74 W · 112 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid+9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No76c30$23 inWon+$7.29981.8%81 W · 18 L+9.7wins+0.10per pick72cpaid+13.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x45d3…eda0backed No78c30$23 inWon+$6.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed94…53fcbacked No77c14.78$11 inWon+$3.4366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.