TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Iran successfully targets shipping on July 9?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$37,515
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$37,061

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,515 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x67d0…db7abacked Yes14c2,975$420 inLost-$419.9913617.6%24 W · 112 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+58.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5666…c630backed Yes4c2,035$89 inLost-$89.25343.4%23 W · 30 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+15.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes12c1,889$227 inLost-$227.3544224.4%108 W · 334 L+22.2wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcdb1…276cbacked Yes10c1,813$175 inLost-$175.2213250%66 W · 66 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7e52…00f5backed Yes29c1,700$493 inLost-$4932611.5%3 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick12cpaid+10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9592…a7b8backed Yes7c1,266$86 inLost-$8611038.2%42 W · 68 L+9.0wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+1.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes16c956.38$149 inLost-$149.3110141.6%42 W · 59 L+6.0wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+56.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes12c601.4$69 inLost-$69.4828438.7%110 W · 174 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes10c556.3$54 inLost-$53.9135921.4%77 W · 282 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-42.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes10c440$44 inLost-$4416246.3%75 W · 87 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x34cb…7588backed Yes9c399.99$38 inLost-$386526.2%17 W · 48 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+27.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x83f1…1936backed Yes25c399.91$100 inLost-$1001346.2%6 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick29cpaid+46.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x946e…1225backed Yes4c399.59$17 inLost-$17.237229.2%21 W · 51 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc28d…1773backed Yes11c349.99$37 inLost-$37.11540%6 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick29cpaid-4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x371c…c236backed Yes15c327.18$50 inLost-$5013532.6%44 W · 91 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+24.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes9c325.87$30 inLost-$29.871,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes16c300$48 inLost-$47.756336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5715…1616backed Yes16c280.88$45 inLost-$45.3211527%31 W · 84 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick20cpaid+14.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2589…bb9cbacked Yes10c225$22 inLost-$22.4837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-32.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8988…6ca5backed Yes13c223.82$29 inLost-$29.130%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf768…4ed7backed Yes5c213.96$10 inLost-$10.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes12c200$23 inLost-$23.22742.9%8 W · 266 L+0.5wins0.00per pick3cpaid-58.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac8f…feddbacked Yes21c184.61$38 inLost-$38.1221034.3%72 W · 138 L+9.3wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+42.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e16…7f14backed Yes12c183.87$22 inLost-$22.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb23e…829abacked No79c183.26$144 inWon+$39.221662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes11c162.44$18 inLost-$18.0142311.6%49 W · 374 L-2.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed Yes16c147.4$24 inLost-$23.6433337.5%125 W · 208 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes15c137.83$20 inLost-$20.0915347.1%72 W · 81 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-22.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c18…a04cbacked Yes15c137.26$20 inLost-$205315.1%8 W · 45 L-5.5wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-36.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes10c134.75$13 inLost-$13.484625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fd8…1de3backed Yes10c111.11$11 inLost-$11.111717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick26cpaid+53.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9b0…a817backed No68c105$71 inWon+$34.052138.1%8 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-41.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ecc…1d30backed Yes27c100$27 inLost-$275152.9%27 W · 24 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02b1…fb65backed Yes16c88.05$14 inLost-$142321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-32.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc243…5e94backed Yes20c63$13 inLost-$12.614249.3%70 W · 72 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0787…0ca3backed No71c49.98$35 inWon+$14.69054.4%49 W · 41 L+8.2wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+32.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc2ca…4419backed No77c39.21$30 inWon+$9.21475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03e1…e180backed No79c28.89$23 inWon+$6.073444.1%15 W · 19 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xae77…fa72backed No79c20$16 inWon+$4.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1620…227bbacked No65c18.15$12 inWon+$6.352166.7%14 W · 7 L-0.1wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.