Middle East · resolved market
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce50d24ed626987a01c49733808e37220ab53869f25fb32a59957d085c27992e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,766
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,804
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,766 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed Yes | 68c | 4,746$3,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,529.62 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 35c | 4,626$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,025.53 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2fea…3bdebacked No | 4c | 4,500$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.34 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 36cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 19c | 3,937$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,183.33 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No | 1c | 3,150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 3c | 2,474$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,409.54 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d86…003cbacked No | 2c | 1,716$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked No | 13c | 1,200$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.73 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,161$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,103.43 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73c0…4aa3backed No | 1c | 1,004$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.21per pick | 4cpaid | +946.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5666…c630backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$941.73 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92da…9665backed No | 5c | 874.66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 30c | 792.79$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.12 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ec…72cebacked No | 2c | 754.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes | 4c | 669.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.14 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed No | 7c | 655.01$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.89 | 95 | 24.2%23 W · 72 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…53f7backed Yes | 3c | 514.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.72 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1c…e801backed Yes | 47c | 508.04$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.04 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9db3…1d38backed Yes | 8c | 437.58$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.75 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 10c | 419.26$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.02 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 8c | 401.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.48 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 3c | 393.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x790f…2b81backed No | 5c | 391.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64a9…7311backed No | 5c | 371.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 345.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.92 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked No | 6c | 314.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 114 | 18.4%21 W · 93 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b73…4e3abacked No | 5c | 307.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 10c | 300$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.1 | 162 | 46.3%75 W · 87 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd8…1de3backed Yes | 4c | 273.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.09 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf5…e344backed Yes | 5c | 270$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.9 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 30c | 228.24$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.12 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 58c | 227.32$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e5…9c6ebacked No | 11c | 223.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 9c | 221.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…3ce8backed No | 22c | 209.35$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.69 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6869…43d4backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 74c | 200$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.31 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…f0fbbacked Yes | 11c | 163.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.26 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64d8…daeabacked Yes | 70c | 139.79$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.68 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +6.4wins | +0.32per pick | 33cpaid | +166.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ab…8a56backed No | 8c | 128.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed Yes | 65c | 85$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 267 | 56.2%150 W · 117 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed No | 31c | 84.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 196 | 41.8%82 W · 114 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x289f…4f9abacked No | 25c | 83.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd989…0087backed Yes | 44c | 68.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +38%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 71c | 49.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 34c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 45c | 43.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1308…45c6backed No | 45c | 37.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +13.2wins | +0.24per pick | 41cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…f35cbacked No | 41c | 32.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 186 | 39.8%74 W · 112 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf33…1e17backed No | 50c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3082…9446backed No | 75c | 14.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 7?this page
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 10?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 11?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 14?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 15?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 16?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 17?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 19?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 1?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 20?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 21?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 23?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 24?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 28?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 29?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 2?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 30?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 31?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 3?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 4?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 5?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 6?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 8?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 9?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on June 26?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on June 27?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on June 28?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on June 29?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.