Middle East · resolved market
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd97bc438495f01867ec3dfcee4e440b3af043144326795b0d2cf3ffa52f5cc55
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,177
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,167
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,177 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32d1…b949backed No | 5c | 3,241$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.72 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d36…d5fabacked No | 20c | 2,909$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 9c | 2,576$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.5 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 4c | 1,930$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.36 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed No | 8c | 1,771$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.94 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 59c | 1,047$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2434…05eabacked No | 8c | 1,000$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 63 | 27%17 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1c…e801backed No | 6c | 889.23$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.16 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 11c | 781.27$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.48 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92da…9665backed No | 7c | 744.27$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x946e…1225backed No | 11c | 655.62$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.11 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 10c | 601.48$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.25 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c1…16c0backed No | 20c | 593.57$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -7.9wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6091…99c7backed Yes | 80c | 559.98$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92a7…eb78backed No | 12c | 555.68$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.32 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.22per pick | 32cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked No | 14c | 549.31$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.64 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | +22.6wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fb…19dcbacked No | 20c | 509.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked No | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9352…2227backed Yes | 16c | 408.17$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.26 | 123 | 41.5%51 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 71c | 386.22$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.39 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 6c | 371.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 123 | 25.2%31 W · 92 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 7c | 353.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.41 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes | 5c | 333.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.29 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79bf…bcdfbacked No | 8c | 317.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd20b…3a20backed Yes | 30c | 264.5$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.34 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…c095backed No | 28c | 261.24$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.05 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05df…882dbacked No | 17c | 255.04$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…d240backed Yes | 51c | 254.98$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.95 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x419f…e853backed No | 9c | 221.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 16c | 202.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked No | 45c | 200$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.93 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda08…0e21backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 69c | 199.99$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.99 | 181 | 35.9%65 W · 116 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked No | 5c | 197.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 14c | 179.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 9c | 161.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5a…02eabacked No | 8c | 130.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 47cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…f35cbacked No | 11c | 112.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 186 | 39.8%74 W · 112 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd989…0087backed Yes | 31c | 96.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +38%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3270…e011backed Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.77 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 28c | 90.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 59c | 78.44$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.47 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc935…74cfbacked No | 17c | 77.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 88 | 58%51 W · 37 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 17c | 63.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a3…962fbacked Yes | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c94…2e06backed Yes | 29c | 49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.71 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c66…44f3backed Yes | 75c | 47.26$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x534b…2c41backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a43…67dcbacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1620…227bbacked Yes | 71c | 16.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a28…035bbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12?this page
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 10?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 11?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 14?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 15?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 16?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 17?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 19?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 1?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 20?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 21?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 23?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 24?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 28?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 29?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 2?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 30?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 31?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 3?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 4?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 5?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 6?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 7?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 8?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 9?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on June 26?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on June 27?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on June 28?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on June 29?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.