TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x79bf…bcdf

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
40
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: AI, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category AI at 53 out of 100; worst Middle East at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT1330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.18per pick49cpaid-42.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$112.14
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$269Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+36.3%+$97.48
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT+29%+$4.5
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$150.28
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$220Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+109.6%+$241.45
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$142.08
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$225Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+166.8%+$374.74
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$136.74
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$178Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$177.74
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.45
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$313Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$312.72
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$110
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
All 13 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 27, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-49.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick11cpaid+28.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukrainelast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 13, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+156.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+386.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$338Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+873.8%+$2,952.56
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$3,433Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,432.67
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 13, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 25, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+91.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+91.1%+$71.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$4.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 25, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump designate Brazil's PCC or CV as a terrorists by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.84
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Apr 22, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Drake Iceman sculpture Date Revealed by April 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.79
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.86
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be 6+ bonus swing home runs during the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.46
All 1 picks, newest first.
Poker Inactivelast resolved Jul 25, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Poker — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Poker, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Chris Moneymaker cash in the WSOP 2026 Main Event?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$299Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$299
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$3,171Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,171.15
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.