Poker · resolved market
Will Chris Moneymaker cash in the WSOP 2026 Main Event?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95dc72d873b2131e0201c60172929638b5d28d185129f288d7374331e1e7b00d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Pokerevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $225,242
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $229,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $225,242 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Poker is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Poker | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e39…4543backed No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf457…ac4ebacked No | 0c | 31,067$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 23c | 18,495$4,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,170.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed No | 3c | 10,241$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 16c | 6,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…698ebacked No | 3c | 5,509$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 4,062$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 26c | 2,000$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05df…882dbacked No | 5c | 1,809$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 2c | 1,278$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4e…4176backed No | 1c | 1,108$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79bf…bcdfbacked No | 30c | 1,000$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9114…3568backed Yes | 78c | 595$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +592.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc698…b0d6backed No | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x577a…6c80backed No | 6c | 342.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Poker and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Chris Moneymaker cash in the WSOP 2026 Main Event?this page
- Will Damian Salas cash in the WSOP 2026 Main Event?No won
- Will Jeremy Ausmus cash in the WSOP 2026 Main Event?Yes won
- Will Robert Eichele cash in the WSOP 2026 Main Event?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.