TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x4a2b…af20

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
722
Categories scored
25
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Music, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Music at 57 out of 100; worst Weather at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT26429.2%77 W · 187 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 264 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$2,649Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,648.56
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$520Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$279.99
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$4,263Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+78.4%+$3,344.24
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$1,530Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,530
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$560Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$559.99
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$6,259Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$6,259.14
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$518Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$518
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$473.88
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+769.6%+$1,062
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,560Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$440
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$110
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$56
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$124
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$372Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+168.5%+$627.6
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$440Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$439.7
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,540Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,539.99
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$346Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$346.4
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$656
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.8
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$216Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$216
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$124.8
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$2,412Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$1,187.99
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$6,752Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$6,751.55
Showing 25 of 264 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Aug 2, 2026, EDT11425.4%29 W · 85 L+0.4wins0.00per pick25cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 114 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $0.70T on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$161Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT+397.5%+$639.2
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $7.00 on July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$507Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+54.8%+$277.72
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.15T by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$164Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$236
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$512Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$512.29
Will there be fewer than 3 ChatGPT outages in July 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$190Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$182.16
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$2,956Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,955.97
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$480Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$480
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$440Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$439.85
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$151.68
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$512Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$512
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$1,304Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,304
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$208Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$208
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$184Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$184
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$96
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$176Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$176
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$168Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$632
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$787Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+27.1%+$212.95
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$279Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$279.49
GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$836Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$835.93
GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$370Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$369.99
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$846Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+89.1%+$753.98
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$1,266Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,265.5
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$800Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+150%+$1,199.72
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$3,181Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,181.43
Showing 25 of 114 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT5527.3%15 W · 40 L+0.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 55 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$2,120Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,120
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$89.2
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$1,213Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+130.8%+$1,586.67
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$510Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$490
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$10,333Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$10,332.79
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$73
Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$134.7
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$2,583Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,583.32
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$23,492Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$23,491.51
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$1,004Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,004
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$189.88
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$360Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$440
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$1,399.96
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$1,032Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,032.24
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$740Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+49.9%+$369.24
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$1,759Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,759.16
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14,401Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$14,400.74
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$2,290Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+74.7%+$1,710.06
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,220Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$780
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$310Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$310
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$600
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$545Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+101.8%+$554.89
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$4,542Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,541.99
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$860Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$860
Showing 25 of 55 picks, newest first.
World Politicslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT4032.5%13 W · 27 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 40 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Will Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$1,095Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+539.3%+$5,904.99
Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,050Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,050
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$2,820Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,819.99
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$826Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT+384%+$3,173.54
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$76
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$19,300Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+65.8%+$12,699.95
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$3,369Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+78.1%+$2,631.26
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$2,003Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,003.32
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$2,841Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,841
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$1,315Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,315.43
Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.82
Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$56
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$3,660Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,659.99
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$3,827Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+341.6%+$13,072.75
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$2,154Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,154.27
Starmer out by June 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$219.8
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$1,640Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+387.8%+$6,359.81
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$1,270Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+57.5%+$730
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$1,440Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,439.99
Starmer out by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$192Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$191.83
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$320Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$679.79
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Electionbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$1,784Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,784
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$1,299Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,298.8
Showing 25 of 40 picks, newest first.
Movieslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT3423.5%8 W · 26 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 34 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Tires: Season 3" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+792.9%+$888
Will "The End of Oak Street" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 20m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$164Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$164
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$119Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$448.18
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.31
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 350m and 360m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$718Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$717.98
Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 86m and 92m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$188Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$212
Will "Little House on the Prairie: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$112
Will "I Will Find You: Limited Series" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$133.27
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 120m and 125m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$474
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 115m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$6,010Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$6,009.98
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 105m and 115m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$751Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$751
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$376Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$376.2
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$284Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$283.84
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 36m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$540Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$540
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$597Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+67.6%+$403.2
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$1,123Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,123
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 35m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$199Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$150.32
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 7m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$711Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+86.2%+$612.59
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$210
Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$398Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$397.64
Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$605Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$604.95
Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$574Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$574
Will Hughie Campbell die in "The Boys: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$220
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$657Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$656.52
Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.23
Showing 25 of 34 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 25, 2026, EDT2634.6%9 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be at least 58 million?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$770Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$769.99
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.07
Will LeBron James attend the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$176Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$176
Will the announcers say "Foul" 12+ times during the Argentina vs Spain FIFA World Cup Match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$161Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$160.77
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the Argentina vs Spain FIFA World Cup Match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+166.8%+$243.8
Will the announcers say "Hattrick" or "Hat Trick" during the Argentina vs Spain FIFA World Cup Match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$546Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+70.3%+$383.59
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$3,147Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,146.76
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$7,860Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$7,859.82
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg" during the Argentina vs Spain FIFA World Cup Match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$84
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$4,117Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+158.1%+$6,508.13
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Argentina vs Spain FIFA World Cup Match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$596Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$596.02
Will the announcers say "VAR" during the Argentina vs Spain FIFA World Cup Match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$81.06
Will Dai Dai be the first song performed by Shakira at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$93.07
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$1,016Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+293.7%+$2,983.69
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$8,210Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+70.5%+$5,790.15
Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$2,020Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+48.5%+$979.97
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$3,690Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,689.99
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$1,848Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,848.46
Norway vs. England: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$642Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+55.6%+$357.5
England-Mexico game rescheduled to different time?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$960Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+212.6%+$2,040.19
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advancebacked Cabo Verde · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$947Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$946.83
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advancebacked Paraguay · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$370Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$630
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$2,145Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,144.94
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$410Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$410.16
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goalsbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$2,050Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,049.97
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT2218.2%4 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will three people dissent the July Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+809.1%+$311.92
Will no one dissent the July Fed decision?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,410Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+41.8%+$590
Will two people dissent the July Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$104.05
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$2,709Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,709
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,179Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+26.4%+$311.63
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$1,336Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,336.15
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 23 and May 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$248Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$248.29
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 15 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$230Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$229.98
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$202Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$202.15
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+779.4%+$330.93
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$1,526Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,525.74
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$3,979Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,978.7
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$400
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$812Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$812.27
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$439Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$438.78
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$390Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$390
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$1,719Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$1,719.25
Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds >10% by Feb 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$373Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$373
Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds >5% by Feb 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$823Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$822.77
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$814Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$814.42
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$676Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$676.16
All 22 picks, newest first.
Us Politicslast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT2123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-44.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Aisha Wahab win the CA-14 special election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$342Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$342.24
Will Melissa Hernandez win the CA-14 special election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$159
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$186Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$414
Epstein suicide note released by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$549Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$549.31
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$1,040Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+188.5%+$1,959.99
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$1,473Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,473
Will Trump visit China by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$4,451Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,451.47
Will Trump visit China by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$920Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$919.99
Will Richard Branson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$160
Will Alec Baldwin be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$78.01
Will David Copperfield be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$140
Will Michael Jackson be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$107.01
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$540Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$540
Trump cabinet member out by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$140.2
US government shutdown Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$3,052Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+129.4%+$3,950.45
Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$220
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$290Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$290
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$577Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+73.2%+$422.44
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$459Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+52.6%+$241.4
Evidence Epstein blackmailed politicians released by Jan 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$266Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$266
Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$743Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$743.2
All 21 picks, newest first.
Ukrainelast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT1926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-14.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$360Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$360
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$570Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$569.98
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$319.99
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$630Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$370
Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$1,071Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,070.58
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$108.39
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$998Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$997.73
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$4,847Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,847.33
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$6,381Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+479.8%+$30,619.29
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$1,627Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+391.5%+$6,369.08
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$480Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$480
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$180
Will Russia enter Dovha Balka by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$919Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+52.3%+$480.51
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$840Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$839.99
Will Ukraine re-enter Novomykolaivka by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
Will Russia enter Bilytske by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$410Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+143.9%+$590
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$80
Will Russia enter Ternuvate by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$160
All 19 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT1833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-27.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,450Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+38%+$550.36
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$325Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+63.7%+$207.13
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$3,852Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,852.12
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$280Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$279.99
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$156
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$169.99
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$310Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$309.99
Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$318Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$317.99
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$149.33
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$188Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$188.27
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$153.95
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$634Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$634
Will Trump say "Tough Negotiator" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$74.11
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,806Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+93.8%+$1,693.61
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$681Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+223.1%+$1,519
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$782Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+228.4%+$1,785.54
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$372Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$372.4
All 18 picks, newest first.
Tweetslast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT1717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid+12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$268Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$267.99
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$256Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT+56.2%+$144
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$374Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$374.4
Will White House post 120-139 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.74
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$592Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+272.2%+$1,611.73
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$175.44
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,080Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,079.64
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$481Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$480.85
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.39
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.66
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$650Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$650
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$838Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$837.7
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$1,781Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,780.51
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+1,288.9%+$1,322.34
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$80
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$72.37
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$30
All 17 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jul 25, 2026, EDT1513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-75.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Over $50M committed to the RipCars public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Over $40M committed to the RipCars public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$140
Over $32.5M committed to the Credible public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$630Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$630
Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$220
Will Paradex launch a token on March 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$2,012Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST-100%-$2,012
Opinion FDV above $800M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$506Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$506
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,008Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+98.4%+$992
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$420Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$420
Will Opinion launch a token on March 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$70.32
Will Opinion launch a token on March 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$3,835Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$3,835.36
Flying Tulip FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$609Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+63.9%+$389.61
Over $10M committed to the Hurupay public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$420Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$420
Over $3M committed to the Hurupay public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$114.4
Over $2M committed to the Hurupay public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$179Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$178.73
Over $1M committed to the Hurupay public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$810Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$810
All 15 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT1330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid+4.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$189.96
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$2,840Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,840
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$4,100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,099.97
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.77
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$760Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$759.99
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$993Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+101.4%+$1,006.89
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$105
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$2,217Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,216.61
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$800Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$800
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$1,695Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+607.8%+$10,304.71
Will Chris Rabb be the Democratic nominee for PA-03?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$2,400Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,399.87
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$3,076Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+192.6%+$5,923.72
Republican House Odds Up or Down this week?backed Up · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$630Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+58.7%+$370
All 13 picks, newest first.
Weatherlast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT1315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.20per pick36cpaid-73%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Weather — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tropical Storm Lala make landfall in Hawaii as a hurricane?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$264Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$264
Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$3,175Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,174.5
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$145.4
Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$185Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$184.8
Will there be at least 2300 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$80.8
Ebola case in the US by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,197Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+47.5%+$568.43
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$207Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$207.06
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$736Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$735.92
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$88
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$2,948Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,948.05
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$196Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$204
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 6 - 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$170
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$890Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$890
All 13 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT1145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick26cpaid+165.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Music — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 400k and 450k?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$384Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$383.99
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$428Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+366.8%+$1,571.3
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$508Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$508
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$2,238Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,237.69
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$1,380Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$1,619.96
Will Finland be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$630Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+1,487.3%+$9,369.92
Will Italy be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+300%+$750
Will Australia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$1,180Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,179.99
Will United Kingdom come in last place at Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$2,137Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,136.88
Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$1,580Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+153.2%+$2,419.99
Will Kanye release BULLY by March 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
All 11 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick34cpaid+36.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
NFL — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get at least 150M views in its first 7 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$227Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+76.4%+$173.2
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$3,048Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+192.2%+$5,856.36
Will "Now here's a guy" be said at the Super Bowl?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+224.6%+$141.09
Will Travis Scott perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$4,230Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+74.5%+$3,150.51
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be green/yellow?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$340Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$339.89
Big Game: Overtime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$11.95
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$2,068Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$2,067.99
Will Karol G perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$247Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+163%+$403.29
Big Game: Coin Tossbacked Tails · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$27.55
All 9 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick23cpaid+104.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
IPO — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 27, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Earnings Inactivelast resolved Jul 22, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Earnings — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2last resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2last resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+59.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$220Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+218.2%+$479.99
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$3,300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,300
All 2 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicatorslast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Poker Inactivelast resolved Jul 25, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Poker — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Poker, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Chris Moneymaker cash in the WSOP 2026 Main Event?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$940Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$940
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.