TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $0.70T on July 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$100,282
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$100,999

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,282 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x62da…326dbacked No0c6,975$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe917…9612backed Yes42c6,605$2,766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,838.862722.2%6 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes28c5,195$1,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,727.171136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4181…de86backed Yes28c3,650$1,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,631.88815.9%14 W · 74 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c10…d7b3backed No0c3,495$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.02633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-54%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No25c2,425$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.3417824.2%43 W · 135 L-12.4wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-56%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa32d…df56backed No14c2,230$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ce…cd2fbacked No62c2,181$1,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,356.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked No3c2,040$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.045547.3%26 W · 29 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+20.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No74c1,122$830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$830.045440.7%22 W · 32 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-29.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97ea…3363backed No5c1,102$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.15343.4%23 W · 30 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0840…9746backed Yes17c1,082$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903.01933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No61c1,081$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.187943%34 W · 45 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No76c1,045$793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793.1947938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked No3c1,023$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1a1…dd34backed No58c1,015$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.83855.3%21 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes38c983.22$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.4745738.9%178 W · 279 L-31.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes35c920.73$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598.018241.5%34 W · 48 L+6.5wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No62c875.34$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.39650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes24c845.98$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.6110561.9%65 W · 40 L+17.4wins+0.17per pick45cpaid+34.8%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes20c800$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.211425.4%29 W · 85 L+0.4wins0.00per pick25cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c5e…8819backed Yes6c783.71$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$733.71250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+683.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No63c741$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.237448.6%36 W · 38 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9453…1a48backed No8c736.98$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.281216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-68.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No67c708.66$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.3819432%62 W · 132 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-40.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes21c705.09$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.1419818.7%37 W · 161 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd2d9…5653backed Yes42c679.95$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.713537.1%13 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No62c573.37$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.386145.9%28 W · 33 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes35c560.57$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.3914421.5%31 W · 113 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6f1…d74dbacked No59c496.75$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1441…0f2bbacked No62c484.59$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No80c476.23$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.965848.3%28 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x999f…da43backed Yes45c475$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.455048%24 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes37c468.13$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.139543.2%41 W · 54 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ff9…3427backed Yes7c450.61$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+235.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb410…57ebbacked Yes46c430.73$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+115.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2141…7fa2backed Yes41c399.99$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes45c399.12$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.226726.9%18 W · 49 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-47.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No65c364.52$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.24736.2%17 W · 30 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-37%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xba38…f74dbacked Yes25c359.99$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.633537.1%13 W · 22 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+15.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No72c357$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.068942.7%38 W · 51 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-28.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf07…c770backed Yes15c353.68$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.142516%4 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecfa…3c6fbacked Yes44c320$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.581650%8 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7fb…8eb0backed Yes47c304.98$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.671145.5%5 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed Yes41c300$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.88033.8%27 W · 53 L-7.5wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-25.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No77c297.91$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.857032.9%23 W · 47 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-41.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe827…5209backed No64c275.3$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.091741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x326f…802dbacked Yes37c266.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.67450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+208.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb5f…c111backed Yes45c228.43$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.74650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+21.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No70c224.57$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.288741.4%36 W · 51 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No54c207$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.7812636.5%46 W · 80 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+20%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c18…32c3backed Yes42c205.89$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.893452.9%18 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No62c204.04$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.575843.1%25 W · 33 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-29.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2df0…0a84backed Yes54c200$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No10c178.2$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.925324.5%13 W · 40 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xef32…265cbacked Yes33c151.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+199.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc83…bcd2backed No50c150$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.92254.5%12 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+36.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b8e…af79backed Yes27c149.75$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.75366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d8c…757abacked No72c145.61$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.161346.2%6 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7475…2edfbacked No57c141.25$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.52250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+138.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9abb…3f96backed No75c133.63$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes17c133.46$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.751,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes23c129.87$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10013422.4%30 W · 104 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x38a2…9c46backed Yes41c120.9$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.9425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-39.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb2b…96dbbacked No62c119.11$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.2830%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x13fa…052abacked Yes37c112.02$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.02450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No74c110$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.57143.7%31 W · 40 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9393…18cfbacked Yes39c108$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.88540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-20.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd004…6a78backed Yes32c107.06$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.331060%6 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.27per pick33cpaid+47.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x163e…ac4fbacked No15c100.11$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf18c…18c1backed No57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572832.1%9 W · 19 L-5.5wins-0.20per pick52cpaid-55.3%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed Yes12c100$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.55349.1%26 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d6c…e3f5backed Yes35c100$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.85162.7%32 W · 19 L+6.5wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+23.1%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x843e…e477backed No66c97.04$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.34757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7374…38ffbacked No64c95.09$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf057…ab54backed Yes36c92.38$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.292540%10 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+34.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No15c91.3$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.532544%11 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-31.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9985…6afabacked No56c90.27$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c29…e1ccbacked No56c88.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c90…17efbacked No76c85$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.241637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-44.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes26c84.09$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.3772935.5%259 W · 470 L-57.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x91e5…0947backed Yes63c83$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.741060%6 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7629…06cdbacked No62c81.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No70c80$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.772045%9 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa87f…864dbacked Yes39c79.49$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.33742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed Yes44c75.1$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.911435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-34.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes30c75$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.57223.6%17 W · 55 L-8.1wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-42.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes33c70.88$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.8115047.3%71 W · 79 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x82ca…44c8backed No70c70.42$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.28425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid+11.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x302b…7a54backed No62c69.8$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x45f2…722ebacked No62c67.41$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick28cpaid-60.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No53c66.18$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.112650%13 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3446…b449backed Yes75c65.45$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked Yes40c59.99$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.058435.7%30 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No34c57.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.535151%26 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No68c54.83$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.0489317.1%153 W · 740 L-144.9wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-61.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x551a…86b9backed Yes55c54.74$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.743100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+98.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe5c2…94e1backed Yes55c54.67$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.67616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick44cpaid-69.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfcaa…aed2backed Yes37c54.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.25250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+34.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf400…1620backed Yes30c52$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.4633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick61cpaid-21.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.