AI · resolved market
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $0.70T on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe33350033e3fbfb546660fc43fcce9428b8c93eb9f397ceef95624720315e54e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $100,282
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $100,999
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,282 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x62da…326dbacked No | 0c | 6,975$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe917…9612backed Yes | 42c | 6,605$2,766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,838.86 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 28c | 5,195$1,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,727.17 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…de86backed Yes | 28c | 3,650$1,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,631.8 | 88 | 15.9%14 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…d7b3backed No | 0c | 3,495$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -54%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 25c | 2,425$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.34 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa32d…df56backed No | 14c | 2,230$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67ce…cd2fbacked No | 62c | 2,181$1,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,356.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 3c | 2,040$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 1,122$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.04 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed No | 5c | 1,102$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.1 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0840…9746backed Yes | 17c | 1,082$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$903.01 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 61c | 1,081$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.18 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 1,045$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.19 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 3c | 1,023$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 58c | 1,015$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.8 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 38c | 983.22$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.47 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 35c | 920.73$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.01 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 62c | 875.34$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.39 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 24c | 845.98$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.61 | 105 | 61.9%65 W · 40 L | +17.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 20c | 800$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.2 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5e…8819backed Yes | 6c | 783.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +683.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 63c | 741$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.23 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed No | 8c | 736.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.28 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 67c | 708.66$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.38 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 21c | 705.09$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.14 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 42c | 679.95$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.71 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 62c | 573.37$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.38 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 35c | 560.57$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.39 | 144 | 21.5%31 W · 113 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f1…d74dbacked No | 59c | 496.75$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1441…0f2bbacked No | 62c | 484.59$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 80c | 476.23$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.96 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed Yes | 45c | 475$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.45 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 37c | 468.13$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.13 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff9…3427backed Yes | 7c | 450.61$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +235.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…57ebbacked Yes | 46c | 430.73$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +115.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 41c | 399.99$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 45c | 399.12$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.22 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 65c | 364.52$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.2 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -37%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…f74dbacked Yes | 25c | 359.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.63 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 357$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.06 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf07…c770backed Yes | 15c | 353.68$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.14 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Yes | 44c | 320$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.58 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fb…8eb0backed Yes | 47c | 304.98$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.67 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 41c | 300$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.8 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 297.91$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.85 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed No | 64c | 275.3$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.09 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x326f…802dbacked Yes | 37c | 266.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +208.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5f…c111backed Yes | 45c | 228.43$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 224.57$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.28 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 54c | 207$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.78 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 42c | 205.89$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.89 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 62c | 204.04$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.57 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df0…0a84backed Yes | 54c | 200$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 10c | 178.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked Yes | 33c | 151.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +199.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc83…bcd2backed No | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.9 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b8e…af79backed Yes | 27c | 149.75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8c…757abacked No | 72c | 145.61$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.16 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7475…2edfbacked No | 57c | 141.25$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9abb…3f96backed No | 75c | 133.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 133.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.75 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 23c | 129.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a2…9c46backed Yes | 41c | 120.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2b…96dbbacked No | 62c | 119.11$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…052abacked Yes | 37c | 112.02$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 74c | 110$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.5 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9393…18cfbacked Yes | 39c | 108$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd004…6a78backed Yes | 32c | 107.06$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.33 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x163e…ac4fbacked No | 15c | 100.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -5.5wins | -0.20per pick | 52cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.5 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x843e…e477backed No | 66c | 97.04$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.34 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 64c | 95.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed Yes | 36c | 92.38$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.29 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 15c | 91.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9985…6afabacked No | 56c | 90.27$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…e1ccbacked No | 56c | 88.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 76c | 85$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.24 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 84.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.37 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x91e5…0947backed Yes | 63c | 83$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…06cdbacked No | 62c | 81.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 70c | 80$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.77 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa87f…864dbacked Yes | 39c | 79.49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.33 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 44c | 75.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.91 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 30c | 75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 72 | 23.6%17 W · 55 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 33c | 70.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.81 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…44c8backed No | 70c | 70.42$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x302b…7a54backed No | 62c | 69.8$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45f2…722ebacked No | 62c | 67.41$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 53c | 66.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.11 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3446…b449backed Yes | 75c | 65.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 40c | 59.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.05 | 84 | 35.7%30 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 34c | 57.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 68c | 54.83$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x551a…86b9backed Yes | 55c | 54.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +98.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…94e1backed Yes | 55c | 54.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcaa…aed2backed Yes | 37c | 54.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf400…1620backed Yes | 30c | 52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $0.70T on July 31?this page
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $1.20T on July 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $0.70T and $0.80T on July 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $0.80T and $0.90T on July 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $0.90T and $1.00T on July 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.00T and $1.10T on July 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.10T and $1.20T on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.