AI · resolved market
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $0.80T and $0.90T on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbc4bc97459e74eb4d3071b832315cfd8e338a9c9b3dc3e6342f446212e76518
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,686
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,804
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,686 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6560…e164backed Yes | 4c | 5,234$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.55 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 31c | 2,360$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.29 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0840…9746backed Yes | 31c | 2,251$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.13 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1441…0f2bbacked Yes | 10c | 2,005$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 1,355$1,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.33 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e57…53b3backed Yes | 17c | 1,257$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf07…c770backed Yes | 14c | 1,111$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.02 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 951.6$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.2 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 3c | 925.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 2c | 705.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 52 | 11.5%6 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 39c | 649.95$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.23 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 2c | 625.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…e560backed Yes | 33c | 605.68$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.29 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 579.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.93 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 4c | 399.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 144 | 21.5%31 W · 113 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 5c | 370.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 367.42$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.78 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 64c | 354.11$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.33 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…6accbacked Yes | 10c | 344.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 327.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 59c | 326.09$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.28 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -12.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x49bb…aaf9backed Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa68e…b35bbacked Yes | 35c | 287.2$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 30c | 254$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.17 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 10c | 191.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d82…8844backed Yes | 53c | 187.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 187$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.97 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 37c | 168.42$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.63 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45f2…722ebacked Yes | 13c | 157.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e24…ca5dbacked Yes | 10c | 155.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 40c | 153$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.73 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8533…7c76backed Yes | 9c | 142.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf366…fef3backed Yes | 43c | 116.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 63c | 110.63$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9393…18cfbacked Yes | 10c | 106.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fc…5111backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +138.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed Yes | 41c | 95.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 78c | 95$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…49dfbacked No | 68c | 90.51$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 26c | 90.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 69c | 84$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | -9.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c70…a5e7backed Yes | 37c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 70c | 68.1$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9129…dd8ebacked Yes | 16c | 66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf400…1620backed Yes | 40c | 51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed No | 59c | 50.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -10.6wins | -0.21per pick | 47cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fb…8eb0backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…d0e5backed No | 62c | 49.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe72c…ef71backed No | 62c | 42.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 53c | 39.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 64c | 39.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ce…2fa6backed No | 58c | 39.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…ea5cbacked No | 78c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 66c | 32.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7f…6413backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa87f…864dbacked Yes | 38c | 29.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ac…66b4backed No | 48c | 23.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 75c | 22.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $0.80T and $0.90T on July 31?this page
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $1.20T on July 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $0.70T and $0.80T on July 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $0.90T and $1.00T on July 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.00T and $1.10T on July 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.10T and $1.20T on July 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $0.70T on July 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.