TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6560…e164

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
315
Categories scored
32
Categories below 50
18

Best Category: AI, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category AI at 59 out of 100; worst Ukraine at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT9040%36 W · 54 L+8.9wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+30.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
AI — the 90 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Did a valve or plumbing failure cause the Blue Origin New Glenn explosion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+30.4%+$28.07
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $0.80T and $0.90T on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$215Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$214.55
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $0.90T and $1.00T on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$199.35
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.00T and $1.10T on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$154.81
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.10T and $1.20T on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$123.7
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $1.20T on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.16
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$601Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$600.54
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.69
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.28
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,277Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+44.8%+$571.56
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$6,638Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+45.3%+$3,006.54
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$198Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+4,006.2%+$7,931.34
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$160.07
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+33%+$12.4
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$148Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+54.1%+$80.35
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$192Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+118.6%+$228.21
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $1.00T on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.7
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.84
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.9
Will OpenAI have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.22
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1500+?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1440?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$119Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$33.42
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $690b on May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $680b and $690b on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$150.33
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $670b and $680b on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.62
Showing 25 of 90 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT8452.4%44 W · 40 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 84 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.92
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$184Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$184.42
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$111
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$81.99
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$12.26
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+100%+$50
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.99
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$100
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$191Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+50.7%+$96.74
US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$35
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+68.4%+$20.51
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$230Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$230.16
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$106.05
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+34.9%+$209.16
Will Iran strike Oman again in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$78.16
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.19
Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in March 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+124.6%+$26.38
Will the US accuse Iran of Oslo Embassy attack?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$106
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$156.67
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$5,062Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+38.6%+$1,953.73
Showing 25 of 84 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT3647.2%17 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 36 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-12.5)backed Utah State Aggies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$76.44
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-11.5)backed Arizona Wildcats · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$358Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$330.38
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Alabama Crimson Tidebacked Alabama Crimson Tide · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$980Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$1,020
UCLA Bruins vs. Connecticut Huskiesbacked UCLA Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$1,110Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,110
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Iowa State Cyclones: O/U 145.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$480Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$480.2
Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-4.5)backed Kentucky Wildcats · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$967Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$966.66
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers: O/U 147.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+100%+$500
Spread: Gonzaga Bulldogs (-6.5)backed Gonzaga Bulldogs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$306Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$305.95
Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartansbacked Louisville Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$318Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$317.88
Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-4.5)backed Louisville Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$413Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$413.42
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-12.5)backed Saint Louis Billikens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.63
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 161.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+100%+$500
Spread: Connecticut Huskies (-20.5)backed Connecticut Huskies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$628Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$627.5
Missouri Tigers vs. Miami Hurricanesbacked Missouri Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$900Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$900
Furman Paladins vs. Connecticut Huskies: O/U 136.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+97.6%+$110.26
California Baptist Lancers vs. Kansas Jayhawks: O/U 138.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$960Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$1,040
Spread: Florida Gators (-35.5)backed Florida Gators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$773Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+102.4%+$791.57
Spread: UCLA Bruins (-5.5)backed UCLA Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$561Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$561
Spread: Alabama Crimson Tide (-11.5)backed Hofstra Pride · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$492Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$492.4
Hofstra Pride vs. Alabama Crimson Tidebacked Hofstra Pride · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$280Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$280
Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-24.5)backed Tennessee State Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$980Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$980
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-30.5)backed LIU Sharks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$78.66
Spread: Texas Tech Red Raiders (-7.5)backed Akron Zips · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$903Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$902.84
Akron Zips vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders: O/U 156.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.33
Spread: Kentucky Wildcats (-3.5)backed Santa Clara Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$493Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$493.44
Showing 25 of 36 picks, newest first.
Weatherlast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT1464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.21per pick43cpaid+181.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Weather — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Typhoon Dolphin be a "Very Strong Typhoon" at Japan landfall?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+1,286.3%+$340.28
Will Typhoon Dolphin be a "Typhoon" at Japan landfall?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$254Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$253.8
Will Typhoon Dolphin be a "Severe Tropical Storm" at Japan landfall?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$30.34
Will there be at least 10000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.73
Will there be at least 5000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+224.8%+$92.39
Chicago Air Quality Index below 100 by July 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+1,103%+$128.52
Chicago Air Quality Index below 100 by July 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,129Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+47.6%+$536.97
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$7.5
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$2,399Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,398.99
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C or below on May 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT+64.9%+$11.74
Will Seattle have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$31.64
Will Seattle have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+39.3%+$25.82
Will 2025 be the second hottest year on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+177.8%+$69.1
All 14 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1450%7 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+39.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Epstein suicide note released by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.21
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+194.3%+$38.87
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+290.8%+$116.94
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+53.8%+$12.6
US government shutdown Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+57.4%+$34.44
Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+35.1%+$13
US forces in Venezuela again by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$13.2
Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$15.74
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+455.6%+$50.02
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$60.8
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$25.79
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+163.7%+$100.31
All 14 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 12, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick28cpaid-39%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Miguel Lopez get engaged on Love is Blind: Ohio?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT+65.9%+$45.35
Will Daniel Radcliffe say "Sauce" 5+ times on Hot Ones?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST+35.7%+$3.95
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$184Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$183.87
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST+86.5%+$96.55
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$16
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 101m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$70.3
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 101m and 112m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$28.22
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" score at least 65 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$10
All 8 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-44.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Space — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick37cpaid+99%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick61cpaid-43.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-36.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.31per pick29cpaid+102.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-24.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
IPO — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid-18%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 16, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 12, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Earnings Inactivelast resolved Jan 24, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Earnings — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Cricket Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Cricket — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight Ridersbacked Kolkata Knight Riders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
T20 World Cup: India vs New Zealandbacked New Zealand · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
All 2 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 226.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$960Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$1,040
All 1 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Golf — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tiger Woods play in the 2026 Masters Tournament?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+47.3%+$14.18
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 10, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 March 9-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$310Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+30.7%+$95.14
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Japan’s January 2026 unemployment rate be ≥2.7%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$216Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+29.7%+$64.09
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
College Football: Undefeated 15-0 team?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$71.37
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Jan 5, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Olivia Rodrigo release an album in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$63.39
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.67
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$150.67
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump dance during UFC 327?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Dec 27, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by December 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$12.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Chess — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will ohnePixel win the PogChamps chess tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$101.27
All 1 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Apr 18, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: G2 Esports vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alphabacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.72
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.