Movies · resolved market
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21400affa8e3fdfff07bb8421d708635bc7be52f5396268dd281ef92a31bb86f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,060,840
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,631,675
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,060,840 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,500 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f89…fae7backed Yes | 0c | 1,446,472$6,845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,845.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdadf…b1edbacked Yes | 0c | 290,265$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.26 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed Yes | 1c | 258,947$1,822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,822.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73c4…ba3bbacked Yes | 2c | 146,559$3,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,396.47 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b84…b7d0backed Yes | 3c | 117,023$3,914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,914.4 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -69%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x867f…3281backed Yes | 1c | 113,583$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf88…9ee7backed Yes | 5c | 105,474$5,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,507.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd15…b989backed Yes | 1c | 94,264$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…dfa4backed Yes | 14c | 78,713$11,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a99…5309backed Yes | 0c | 78,608$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.73 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa134…2ecabacked Yes | 6c | 77,698$4,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,900 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…a13fbacked Yes | 3c | 76,170$2,662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,661.97 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3535…7982backed Yes | 7c | 73,552$4,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,983.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68e7…a893backed Yes | 2c | 71,360$1,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,304.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9e…e4a8backed Yes | 9c | 64,521$5,964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,964.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d0…af08backed Yes | 8c | 61,784$4,678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,678.13 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1f…5317backed Yes | 7c | 58,648$4,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,037.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e9…d7a4backed Yes | 2c | 56,408$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes | 4c | 55,331$2,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,250.69 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x743d…a38dbacked Yes | 3c | 51,536$1,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,531.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa59…9df3backed Yes | 10c | 51,527$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85cc…4895backed Yes | 7c | 51,229$3,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,444.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e82…c878backed Yes | 1c | 49,854$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 1c | 49,084$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.16 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df6…e553backed Yes | 1c | 48,257$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 43,810$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.48 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ead…1197backed Yes | 11c | 43,603$4,813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,812.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3905…6022backed Yes | 7c | 41,162$3,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,070.77 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…9b94backed Yes | 3c | 39,956$1,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.34 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae3b…3b2bbacked Yes | 2c | 37,899$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee9…69a0backed Yes | 2c | 37,884$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b05…5369backed Yes | 2c | 37,865$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4e…fd9dbacked Yes | 2c | 37,210$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2635…41aebacked Yes | 2c | 36,830$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.02 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b0…efa6backed Yes | 2c | 36,818$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 3c | 36,573$1,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,036.97 | 145 | 5.5%8 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37ef…39b9backed Yes | 1c | 36,378$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2978…f839backed Yes | 7c | 35,698$2,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,352.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17a…1db3backed Yes | 5c | 35,486$1,905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,904.76 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 20cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7034backed Yes | 1c | 35,000$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 6c | 33,776$2,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,003.39 | 52 | 15.4%8 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 8c | 33,588$2,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,789.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa110…78fabacked Yes | 2c | 31,905$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 1c | 30,627$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.1 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ee…1128backed Yes | 0c | 30,500$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…b61dbacked Yes | 2c | 29,888$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22e6…409fbacked Yes | 3c | 29,744$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4108…a80dbacked Yes | 3c | 29,713$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.26 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab0…95aebacked Yes | 1c | 28,992$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe64e…2143backed Yes | 9c | 28,783$2,732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,731.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf01…6865backed Yes | 6c | 28,632$1,791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,791.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0c…cfc9backed Yes | 1c | 28,430$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6182…788ebacked Yes | 6c | 27,614$1,593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,593.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef6f…084bbacked Yes | 1c | 25,207$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92b2…1849backed Yes | 4c | 24,987$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2275…c88bbacked Yes | 0c | 24,500$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ac…a442backed Yes | 1c | 23,552$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x498b…f3d3backed Yes | 3c | 23,381$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe267…86e4backed Yes | 3c | 21,240$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd971…4471backed Yes | 9c | 21,156$1,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,895.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe646…0a39backed Yes | 3c | 21,153$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 3c | 21,086$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.37 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 21,000$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.66 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…8812backed Yes | 6c | 20,707$1,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,302.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…181dbacked Yes | 2c | 20,296$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.88 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf887…92acbacked Yes | 0c | 20,034$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf2…45bcbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80f0…68e1backed Yes | 2c | 19,835$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c4…0c35backed Yes | 13c | 19,801$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…6accbacked Yes | 5c | 19,753$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.71 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b76…bf1dbacked Yes | 4c | 19,713$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e0…f075backed Yes | 6c | 18,879$1,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,092.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5b…4f5abacked Yes | 3c | 18,848$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x929c…e816backed Yes | 1c | 18,720$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.8 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e5…97dcbacked Yes | 5c | 18,570$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e8…5c8cbacked Yes | 1c | 18,270$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64e3…e3f5backed Yes | 5c | 18,154$904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08aa…774ebacked Yes | 2c | 18,145$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.39 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x990a…7b16backed Yes | 3c | 17,931$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.61 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9110…4a41backed Yes | 12c | 17,780$2,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,050 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2436…1858backed Yes | 1c | 17,105$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 3c | 17,011$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.06 | 60 | 15%9 W · 51 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9762…bd6ebacked Yes | 6c | 16,968$1,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,037.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…fe0fbacked Yes | 2c | 16,669$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcde0…1cc1backed Yes | 6c | 16,512$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed20…84f1backed Yes | 0c | 16,453$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e6…1dc2backed Yes | 6c | 16,199$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a15…5938backed Yes | 1c | 15,794$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…f9aebacked Yes | 2c | 15,786$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 0c | 15,555$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x94d4…2a42backed Yes | 8c | 15,228$1,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,144.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa229…0b73backed Yes | 2c | 15,221$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5acd…c079backed Yes | 1c | 14,853$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.59 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4102…c584backed Yes | 1c | 14,308$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b2…26b9backed Yes | 2c | 14,294$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa09b…db3dbacked Yes | 7c | 14,140$925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb384…ff78backed Yes | 0c | 14,137$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1875…6c84backed Yes | 0c | 13,750$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7349…8a6dbacked Yes | 0c | 13,672$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x912b…79cbbacked Yes | 2c | 13,571$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025?this page
- Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?Yes won
- Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 2025?No won
- Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025?No won
- Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025?No won
- Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025?No won
- Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025?No won
- Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025?No won
- Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025?No won
- Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?No won
- Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.