TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,060,840
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,631,675

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,060,840 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,500 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9f89…fae7backed Yes0c1,446,472$6,845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,845.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdadf…b1edbacked Yes0c290,265$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.26150%0 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe278…b608backed Yes1c258,947$1,822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,822.2640%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x73c4…ba3bbacked Yes2c146,559$3,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,396.47616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-73.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b84…b7d0backed Yes3c117,023$3,914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,914.41612.5%2 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-69%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x867f…3281backed Yes1c113,583$717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$717.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf88…9ee7backed Yes5c105,474$5,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,507.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd15…b989backed Yes1c94,264$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+73.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x437c…dfa4backed Yes14c78,713$11,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,000333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-52.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a99…5309backed Yes0c78,608$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.7340%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa134…2ecabacked Yes6c77,698$4,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,90010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb877…a13fbacked Yes3c76,170$2,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,661.971816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-76.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3535…7982backed Yes7c73,552$4,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,983.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68e7…a893backed Yes2c71,360$1,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,304.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a9e…e4a8backed Yes9c64,521$5,964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,964.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4d0…af08backed Yes8c61,784$4,678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,678.1390%0 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf1f…5317backed Yes7c58,648$4,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,037.9630%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5e9…d7a4backed Yes2c56,408$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes4c55,331$2,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,250.691910.5%2 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick7cpaid-66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x743d…a38dbacked Yes3c51,536$1,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,531.4340%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa59…9df3backed Yes10c51,527$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85cc…4895backed Yes7c51,229$3,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,444.41425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e82…c878backed Yes1c49,854$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-57.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes1c49,084$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.16120%0 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df6…e553backed Yes1c48,257$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes1c43,810$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.4832814.9%49 W · 279 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-59.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ead…1197backed Yes11c43,603$4,813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,812.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3905…6022backed Yes7c41,162$3,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,070.77911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick30cpaid-84.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x197c…9b94backed Yes3c39,956$1,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,004.34714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-64.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae3b…3b2bbacked Yes2c37,899$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ee9…69a0backed Yes2c37,884$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70090%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b05…5369backed Yes2c37,865$872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$871.5830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f4e…fd9dbacked Yes2c37,210$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2635…41aebacked Yes2c36,830$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.0250%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46b0…efa6backed Yes2c36,818$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66080%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes3c36,573$1,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,036.971455.5%8 W · 137 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-67.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37ef…39b9backed Yes1c36,378$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2978…f839backed Yes7c35,698$2,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,352.26450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc17a…1db3backed Yes5c35,486$1,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,904.76214.8%1 W · 20 L-3.2wins-0.15per pick20cpaid-81.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x564f…7034backed Yes1c35,000$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3953534.3%12 W · 23 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-41.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes6c33,776$2,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,003.395215.4%8 W · 44 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-27%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes8c33,588$2,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,789.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa110…78fabacked Yes2c31,905$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.1720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82a0…33a1backed Yes1c30,627$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.1190%0 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00ee…1128backed Yes0c30,500$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5480%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21d0…b61dbacked Yes2c29,888$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.8720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22e6…409fbacked Yes3c29,744$913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$912.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4108…a80dbacked Yes3c29,713$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.261637.5%6 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ab0…95aebacked Yes1c28,992$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15450%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe64e…2143backed Yes9c28,783$2,732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,731.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf01…6865backed Yes6c28,632$1,791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,791.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc0c…cfc9backed Yes1c28,430$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6182…788ebacked Yes6c27,614$1,593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,593.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef6f…084bbacked Yes1c25,207$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92b2…1849backed Yes4c24,987$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2275…c88bbacked Yes0c24,500$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ac…a442backed Yes1c23,552$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x498b…f3d3backed Yes3c23,381$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.83333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick13cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe267…86e4backed Yes3c21,240$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-89.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd971…4471backed Yes9c21,156$1,895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,895.29425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe646…0a39backed Yes3c21,153$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.5530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes3c21,086$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.37303.3%1 W · 29 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-34%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c21,000$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.66160%0 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c16…8812backed Yes6c20,707$1,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,302.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b56…181dbacked Yes2c20,296$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.88100%0 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf887…92acbacked Yes0c20,034$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bf2…45bcbacked Yes0c20,000$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.7530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80f0…68e1backed Yes2c19,835$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.2740%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4c4…0c35backed Yes13c19,801$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x755d…6accbacked Yes5c19,753$973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$972.716331.7%20 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-18.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b76…bf1dbacked Yes4c19,713$807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806.6630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7e0…f075backed Yes6c18,879$1,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,092.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d5b…4f5abacked Yes3c18,848$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x929c…e816backed Yes1c18,720$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.890%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9e5…97dcbacked Yes5c18,570$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7e8…5c8cbacked Yes1c18,270$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick16cpaid-46.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x64e3…e3f5backed Yes5c18,154$904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08aa…774ebacked Yes2c18,145$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.3980%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x990a…7b16backed Yes3c17,931$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.61110%0 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9110…4a41backed Yes12c17,780$2,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,05010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2436…1858backed Yes1c17,105$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100170%0 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes3c17,011$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.066015%9 W · 51 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-36.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9762…bd6ebacked Yes6c16,968$1,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,037.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83dd…fe0fbacked Yes2c16,669$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.33520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-68.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcde0…1cc1backed Yes6c16,512$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.76250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed20…84f1backed Yes0c16,453$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9e6…1dc2backed Yes6c16,199$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick59cpaid-40.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1a15…5938backed Yes1c15,794$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e56…f9aebacked Yes2c15,786$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.1130%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes0c15,555$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.55518.2%10 W · 45 L-7.5wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-60.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x94d4…2a42backed Yes8c15,228$1,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,144.96250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa229…0b73backed Yes2c15,221$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5acd…c079backed Yes1c14,853$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.591414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-80.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4102…c584backed Yes1c14,308$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.5630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5b2…26b9backed Yes2c14,294$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30170%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa09b…db3dbacked Yes7c14,140$925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$924.8130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb384…ff78backed Yes0c14,137$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5860%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1875…6c84backed Yes0c13,750$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7349…8a6dbacked Yes0c13,672$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.67944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick34cpaid-42.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x912b…79cbbacked Yes2c13,571$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.