TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x682d…4cd6

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
1,297
Categories scored
21
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Middle East, grading 61 out of 100 (+0.10 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 61 out of 100; worst Ukraine at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT45618.9%86 W · 370 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-45.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 456 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winnerbacked Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.1
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffsbacked Cloud9 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.5
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Qualifier Playoffsbacked paiN Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.04
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffsbacked Cloud9 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.98
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winnerbacked Cloud9 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.4
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 2 Winnerbacked Cloud9 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.23
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winnerbacked Cloud9 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.11
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winnerbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.39
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winnerbacked Karmine Corp · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.99
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winnerbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.23
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports (BO5) - North American Challengers League Playoffsbacked CCG Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$235Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+92.6%+$217.32
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 4 Winnerbacked CCG Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.8
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 3 Winnerbacked CCG Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.89
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 1 Winnerbacked Winthrop University · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$260Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$260.11
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 3 Winnerbacked Shopify Rebellion · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.15
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winnerbacked Shopify Rebellion · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.22
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffsbacked Team Secret Whales · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$16
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 3 Winnerbacked Sentinels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.25
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 2 Winnerbacked Sentinels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$127.87
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs G2 NORD - Game 3 Winnerbacked Eintracht Spandau · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.5
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 4 Winnerbacked Team WE · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$139Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+337.9%+$469.91
LoL: CCG Esports vs Conviction - Game 3 Winnerbacked CCG Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.37
LoL: CCG Esports vs Conviction - Game 2 Winnerbacked CCG Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.5
LoL: Ronaldo Team vs Bubliki - Game 4 Winnerbacked Bubliki · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$151Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+113%+$171.05
LoL: NRG Esports vs Winthrop University - Game 4 Winnerbacked NRG Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.89
Showing 25 of 456 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT32814.9%49 W · 279 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-59.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Movies — the 328 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 120m and 125m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$69
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 95m and 105m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.52
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 95m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.9
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 115m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.6
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 75m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.78
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 135m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.17
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 115m and 120m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.01
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 85m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.2
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 125m and 130m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$161Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$161.02
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 105m and 115m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$108.78
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 130m and 135m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.7
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.74
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$673Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$673.35
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.62
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+98.4%+$39.72
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 30m and 33m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.1
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+71.3%+$32.47
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 48m and 52m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.44
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 79m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.55
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$138.23
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 112m and 122m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.31
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 102m and 112m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.97
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 92m and 102m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$123Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+144.5%+$177.29
Will "In the Grey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3.5m and 4m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.65
Will "In the Grey" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 5m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.62
Showing 25 of 328 picks, newest first.
Tweetslast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT14914.1%21 W · 128 L+7.1wins+0.05per pick9cpaid-33.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Tweets — the 149 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.48
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.41
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.07
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.95
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$71
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.55
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.72
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$131Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+52.2%+$68.59
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.94
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+317.3%+$167.28
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.7
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.8
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.46
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+239.5%+$247.19
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.73
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+37%+$13.14
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+354.5%+$35.96
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.92
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$102.96
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+1,058.6%+$264.97
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.5
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$31.7
Showing 25 of 149 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT9330.1%28 W · 65 L+6.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid-42.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Weather — the 93 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be at least 2350 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$101.1
Will there be at least 2300 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.79
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.43
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.62
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.34
Will there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$944Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+75.9%+$716.65
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in May 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.44
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in May 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.41
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in May 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.17
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in May 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.3
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,171Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+43.5%+$509.05
Will there be at least 1950 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$832Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$832.18
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.03
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.05
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.87
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on May 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.79
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on May 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$139
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on May 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.52
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on May 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$92.82
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.18
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on May 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$237Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+27%+$64.14
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$41
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on May 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$246Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$246.35
Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$3,785Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,784.63
Showing 25 of 93 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT7727.3%21 W · 56 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 77 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$121
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.05
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$883Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$882.98
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.36
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.47
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.09
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.28
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$252Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$251.5
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.5
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$105.2
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$42
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$21
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+1,392.5%+$186.6
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+1,233.3%+$185
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$693Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$693
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$347Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$347.35
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$128
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$169Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$169
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$2,617Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,617.32
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$572Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$572.32
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$138.5
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$173Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$172.97
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$358Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$358.29
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.8
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$172Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$172.1
Showing 25 of 77 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT4327.9%12 W · 31 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-42.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 43 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–$2.50 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$2,874Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,873.62
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–2.25 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$959Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+45.4%+$435.09
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–2.50 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$356Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+62.9%+$224.29
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–2.25 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.51
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.75–3.00 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.13
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.40–2.50 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.12
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.30–2.40 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.33
Will a dozen eggs cost <$2.30 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.11
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.75–3.00 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$66.44
Will a dozen eggs cost <$2.50 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$211Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$211.48
Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.50–3.75 in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$38.6
Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.00–3.25 in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.75–3.00 in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$37.5
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.75–3.00 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$965Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST+49.7%+$479.54
Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.00–3.25 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST-100%-$74.94
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.75–3.00 in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$164Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$164.29
Will a dozen eggs cost <$2.75 in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$42.57
Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.00–3.25 in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$606Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$605.96
Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.25–3.50 in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+68.8%+$73.02
Will a dozen eggs be between $3.25-3.50 in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$190Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT+333.5%+$634.7
Will a dozen eggs be below $3.00 in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.29
Will a dozen eggs be between $3.50-3.75 in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.39
Will a dozen eggs be between $3.00-3.25 in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$163Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$163
Will a dozen eggs be between $3.50-3.75 in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$892Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 11, 2025, EDT+322.2%+$2,874.25
Will a dozen eggs be between $3.75-4.00 in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$627Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 11, 2025, EDT+27.1%+$170.26
Showing 25 of 43 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT2437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-41.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$10.99
US government shutdown Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+104.1%+$51
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$633Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$633.32
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$642Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$642.35
Will the government shutdown end November 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$11.5
Will the Government shutdown end by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$33.33
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST+50.5%+$29.9
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$204Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$203.89
Current shutdown longest in U.S. history?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$653Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+30%+$195.99
Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$98.96
Will Trump say "China" or "President Xi" during announcement today?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.8
Will Trump say "Crime" 10+ times during the DC Crime Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$5.2
Will Trump say "Mexican" or "Mexico" during the DC Crime Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$6.8
Will Elon register the America Party in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.8
Will Elon Musk create a new political party in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+124.7%+$111
Will Elon Musk create a new political party before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$37.4
Will Trump say "Israel" or "Iran" during his 4th of July remarks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.4
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during his 4th of July remarks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$58.5
Will Trump say "Space Force" during his 4th of July remarks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.5
Another US military action against Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$146.15
US military action against Iran by Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$214.29
US military action against Iran before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+34.2%+$10.2
US military action against Iran by Sunday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$80
Trump releases Epstein list today?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST-100%-$47.02
All 24 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT2133.3%7 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-15%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.25
England vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$81
France vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$116.4
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
Will Norway vs. England end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$71
Norway vs. England: Team to Advancebacked Norway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.25
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
Spain vs. Belgium: Team to Advancebacked Belgium · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$103
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$53
Will Spain vs. Belgium end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.56
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advancebacked Switzerland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$55
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+37%+$27
United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advancebacked Belgium · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$53
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+105.1%+$51.25
Switzerland vs. Algeria: Team to Advancebacked Switzerland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+49.8%+$9.98
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+412.8%+$120.75
Portugal vs. Croatia: Team to Advancebacked Croatia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.13
Will Croatia win on 2026-07-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$36
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.99
All 21 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT1764.7%11 W · 6 L+4.2wins+0.25per pick40cpaid+39%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
Middle East — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$168Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$132
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+254.3%+$292.42
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.47
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.64
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$304Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+64.2%+$195.55
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.8
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+152.3%+$60.36
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+243.5%+$127.6
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$971Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+70%+$679.5
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$869Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+61.1%+$530.98
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$402Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+105.2%+$423
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$325Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$325
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$60
Iran x Israel conflict ends before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2025, EDT+50.6%+$13.44
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,054Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT+80.7%+$850.27
US military action against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$182Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+102.8%+$187.55
All 17 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST140%0 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$1,921Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,920.64
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$1,150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,149.71
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$597Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$597.12
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$973Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$972.61
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$131.78
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$993Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$993.05
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$201Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$201.14
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$360Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$359.52
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$271Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$270.85
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$82.32
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$607Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$606.78
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$130.13
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$167Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$166.52
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$157.03
All 14 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT1421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-71.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.2
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$38
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$216Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$216.4
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$13.7
Will the Fed cut-cut-cut in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$81.42
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$66.01
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during October press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$43.5
Will the Fed cut-pause-cut in 2025backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$52.82
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$473Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$472.95
Will the Fed cut-pause-pause in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$58.03
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$22
Will Powell say "Meeting" 9+ times during October press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$9.9
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$150.7
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+25%+$10
All 14 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 18, 2026, EDT1163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.24per pick40cpaid+18.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
AI — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.58
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+105.5%+$28.04
GPT ads by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$29.7
Will ChatGPT reach 1b monthly active users in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+244.8%+$71
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$103
Will Elon Musk be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$12.4
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 11 achieve a successful splashdown?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+43.8%+$36.86
Will anyone say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 7+ times during Apple launch event on September 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT+44%+$13.75
Will anyone say "iPhone" 100+ times during Apple launch event on September 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT+30.2%+$11.6
Will Musk say "Tariff" 5+ times during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$24.5
Will Musk say "China" 3+ times during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2025, EDT+37%+$5.4
All 11 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Feb 27, 2026, EST1136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-36.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$43
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$74.38
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$69.68
Will Russia enter Toretske by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$70.92
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$137.01
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+81.8%+$90
Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$220.39
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$886Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+124.1%+$1,099.08
Will Russia enter Hryshyne by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$192Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$191.76
Will Russia enter Huliaipole by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$578Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+44.7%+$258.43
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$567Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+45.8%+$259.81
All 11 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick28cpaid-41.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.1
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$637Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+90.1%+$574.12
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.7
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.4
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.43
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,039Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+34.7%+$361
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+46%+$18.9
Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST-100%-$137.4
All 8 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-55.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick4cpaid-40.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+50.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST540%2 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick18cpaid+49%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Boxing — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Space Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick13cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Space — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$7
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex (BO5) - ESL One Birmingham Playoffsbacked Team Yandex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.