TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 79m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$111,690
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$69,479

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,690 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb028…8686backed Yes10c9,946$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$948.8223639.8%94 W · 142 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-26.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes3c5,598$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.1617751.4%91 W · 86 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes3c4,560$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.0211924.4%29 W · 90 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-45.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x955c…990fbacked Yes14c4,324$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.877157.7%41 W · 30 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+29.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6018…170cbacked Yes12c4,043$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.7713635.3%48 W · 88 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes8c3,695$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.8947328.3%134 W · 339 L-32.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb656…42e6backed Yes7c3,600$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes28c3,508$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$976.592123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes0c3,450$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5532814.9%49 W · 279 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-59.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8085…ea17backed Yes22c3,216$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7004938.8%19 W · 30 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick31cpaid-8.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes7c2,626$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.046639.4%26 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4da7…355ebacked Yes2c1,941$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.757538.7%29 W · 46 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5095…93eebacked Yes7c1,879$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.2229642.6%126 W · 170 L+22.9wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+1.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xab18…467dbacked Yes1c1,850$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203423.5%8 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid-42.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae8e…afc1backed Yes4c1,435$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.3240%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes13c1,407$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.9516040%64 W · 96 L+8.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes5c1,398$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.032666.4%17 W · 249 L-13.4wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-52.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa53c…67a5backed Yes13c1,202$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.821421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-54.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe78…c533backed Yes22c1,190$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.2429735.7%106 W · 191 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes21c1,158$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.0115149%74 W · 77 L+10.6wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+1.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a43…178bbacked Yes16c1,007$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.835925.4%15 W · 44 L-0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb94c…b5b5backed Yes12c1,001$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.724746.8%22 W · 25 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick39cpaid-14.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes7c920.21$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.1329423.5%69 W · 225 L+0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-43%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes14c787.79$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.7123130.3%70 W · 161 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes7c777.43$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.391231.6%2 W · 121 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-69.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes17c775.47$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.89319.7%3 W · 28 L-7.5wins-0.24per pick34cpaid-84.8%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes7c649.78$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.261,3938%111 W · 1,282 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7bb…a9f7backed Yes13c644.69$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.268247.6%39 W · 43 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd91…6262backed Yes3c630.03$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.121822.2%4 W · 14 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed Yes10c629.65$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.862050%10 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-13.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes8c607.15$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9223321.5%50 W · 183 L+1.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No78c582$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.266747.8%32 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf2…7279backed Yes6c473.98$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7513820.3%28 W · 110 L+0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid+27.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes8c443.61$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8316737.1%62 W · 105 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-37.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45b3…c90bbacked No79c400$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcffe…146dbacked Yes6c395.01$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5412936.4%47 W · 82 L+0.3wins0.00per pick36cpaid-25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes6c373$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.112013.5%7 W · 194 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-47.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes6c351.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.62536%9 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8296…e9cbbacked Yes9c320.27$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283116.1%5 W · 26 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes20c308$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.64440.9%18 W · 26 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf01…c782backed Yes6c300$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.660%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe49…7a4cbacked Yes8c250$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.751040%4 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes13c249.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.57839.7%31 W · 47 L+8.4wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+11.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7468…3d24backed Yes11c249.38$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.93425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-64.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No76c241.03$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.714436.4%16 W · 28 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-42.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5450…2a78backed Yes6c240$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152420.8%5 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-59.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes14c230.05$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8148414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes8c200$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.22161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick51cpaid-9.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes8c200$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.22042.9%6 W · 198 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No80c193$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.113557.1%20 W · 15 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x54d1…13f4backed Yes14c190$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.031816.7%3 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-33.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf984…79a2backed Yes7c184.86$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7af9…e4ebbacked Yes28c176$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.28250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6408…d5c6backed Yes9c168.32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.92313.2%1 W · 30 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-83.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67d3…b524backed Yes18c167.12$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes26c159$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.962917.2%5 W · 24 L-5.4wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-74.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3ad8…5004backed Yes20c151.14$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3060%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b5f…0ecdbacked Yes12c149.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-63.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes10c122.77$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.23545.7%16 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-12.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x09b5…fd79backed Yes13c116.41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcbf0…fdbebacked Yes18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes14c98.09$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.31811.1%2 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-49.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes19c97.04$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.91714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick25cpaid-53.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No78c96.12$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.183545.7%16 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-35.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1919…d2afbacked Yes14c84$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa6…6316backed Yes13c82.22$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd3a…8be7backed Yes17c75.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.16540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes15c73.35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.243517.1%6 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-41%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No72c51$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.522962.1%18 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x86cb…6c6dbacked No74c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc436…76c9backed No75c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd18f…a259backed No78c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-57.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No79c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.53336.4%12 W · 21 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-46.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f1c…ebffbacked No77c34.51$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No67c32$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.563046.7%14 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.