TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$349,893
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$344,190

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $349,893 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbbc8…7927backed No17c36,363$6,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,284.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5095…93eebacked No12c31,280$3,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,770.7629642.6%126 W · 170 L+22.9wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+1.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4155…35cebacked No16c20,797$3,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,244.82441.7%10 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No16c13,011$2,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,075.878225.6%21 W · 61 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-52.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed No13c9,644$1,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,283.4518746%86 W · 101 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf720…4599backed Yes77c9,603$7,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,197.61338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-26%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac26…06ffbacked No11c8,900$966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed No11c7,272$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.92050%10 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-13.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No16c6,742$1,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,111.7310339.8%41 W · 62 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-31.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed No19c6,000$1,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1233423.5%8 W · 26 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46e2…f8bbbacked No11c5,649$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.391838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-48.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x955c…990fbacked No15c4,175$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.747157.7%41 W · 30 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+29.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No13c4,158$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.854429.5%13 W · 31 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-45.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x33f8…c5e4backed No9c4,098$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.829423.5%69 W · 225 L+0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-43%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6408…d5c6backed No2c2,868$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.34313.2%1 W · 30 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-83.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4bb…a993backed Yes80c2,714$2,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.973568.6%24 W · 11 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+4.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8247…d8ccbacked No14c2,654$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.4416040%64 W · 96 L+8.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1692…a90ebacked No12c2,079$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4041…6f52backed No10c2,051$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.6417017.1%29 W · 141 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe78…c533backed Yes75c2,006$1,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.3329735.7%106 W · 191 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked No10c1,915$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.41644.7%3 W · 61 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-74.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb413…1cb7backed No15c1,530$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.694211.9%5 W · 37 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-45.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No4c1,508$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.322686.3%17 W · 251 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-53%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No17c1,501$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.5118719.3%36 W · 151 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-55.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecb2…a30cbacked No4c1,434$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.3560%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf677…2efebacked No20c1,394$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27830%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae8e…afc1backed No9c1,300$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf2f5…137ebacked No9c1,202$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.5723321.5%50 W · 183 L+1.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No20c1,197$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.224843.8%21 W · 27 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa53c…67a5backed No12c1,181$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.941421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-54.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf984…79a2backed No3c1,130$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad43…1427backed No11c1,048$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-72.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No20c1,019$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.7312442.7%53 W · 71 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed No13c1,000$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1294238.1%16 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-24.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No12c981$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.85147.1%24 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-26.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfae3…5228backed No18c912.67$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.973925.6%10 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick30cpaid+23.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8564…4b2ebacked No11c890.36$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.1611625.9%30 W · 86 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-39.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aac…309abacked No18c871.58$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.282138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-42.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No30c865.01$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.91319.7%3 W · 28 L-7.5wins-0.24per pick34cpaid-84.8%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No17c743.82$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.510436.5%38 W · 66 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-40.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed No7c735.07$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.211231.6%2 W · 121 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-69.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No22c714.66$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.48638.4%33 W · 53 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-16.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes76c699.99$534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.410549.5%52 W · 53 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-4.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No13c670.09$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.537537.3%28 W · 47 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-42.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No18c642.07$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.6748414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No7c622.61$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.772042.9%6 W · 198 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6a7…0af9backed No30c599.99$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1771080%8 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+102.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No23c582$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.066747.8%32 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No13c526.97$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.7810645.3%48 W · 58 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-26.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb656…42e6backed No4c524.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No7c514.33$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.332013.5%7 W · 194 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-47.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef1f…5868backed No12c490.5$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.84333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick10cpaid+96.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No11c484.12$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.224560%27 W · 18 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-4.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf01…c782backed No8c459.07$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2160%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbb0…bd65backed No13c444.92$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.461838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf82f…8137backed No37c409.2$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1504643.5%20 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1214…ebecbacked No5c400$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184918.4%9 W · 40 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-41.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf92c…87f7backed No12c396.7$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dec…cefabacked No16c379.75$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.565042%21 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No18c370.03$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.443545.7%16 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-25.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No21c331.19$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.5716737.1%62 W · 105 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-37.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54d1…13f4backed No10c322$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.521816.7%3 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-33.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5cb2…7f19backed No6c300$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No14c284.04$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.578442.9%36 W · 48 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x026b…4b29backed No14c275$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b1f…9ff2backed No9c257.57$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.92941.4%12 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-30.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5136…0e4fbacked No19c257$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.933959%23 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No23c241.7$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.244436.4%16 W · 28 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-42.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed No28c221.13$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.0426431.1%82 W · 182 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No22c217$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.221,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa657…1b1fbacked No16c208.07$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4430%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xffef…dabfbacked No14c208$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked No32c206.19$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.2219532.8%64 W · 131 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ab3…07bcbacked No14c203.27$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.591811.1%2 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-49.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No32c177$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.263444.1%15 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-32.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x357c…7dfebacked No14c176$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.64130%0 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…e223backed No18c170.45$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No16c164.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.176855.9%38 W · 30 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6683…f5f4backed No14c161$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.54333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d81…fe57backed No22c159.41$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.286150.8%31 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5450…2a78backed Yes58c158.8$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.662420.8%5 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-59.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ec4…f4a4backed No27c150$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.53348.5%16 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57d4…ac0dbacked No20c150$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.517041.8%71 W · 99 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No17c145$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.461,21817.8%217 W · 1,001 L-124.0wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x736f…deaabacked Yes69c125.5$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.6425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-63.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c8d…31e4backed No15c123.29$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.47366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2c6…56a6backed No16c122.73$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfe6…16f6backed No13c110.4$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d7c…3e7abacked No12c109.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.22944.8%13 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-26.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6eb1…c8efbacked No14c104.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No19c103.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.923246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x367e…b15ebacked No15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47c1…825fbacked No11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11429.5%4 W · 38 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xad70…4ccfbacked No16c97.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7210814.8%16 W · 92 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-68.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b57…72ecbacked No33c90.91$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-54.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe72b…8a0fbacked No35c88.51$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No22c88$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.313557.1%20 W · 15 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked No20c85$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.632227.3%6 W · 16 L-4.2wins-0.19per pick46cpaid-57.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No28c78.54$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.333545.7%16 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-12.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No27c69$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.433158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-11%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.