TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x508d…791a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
767
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Tweets, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 54 out of 100; worst Commodities at 40.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weatherlast resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT54253%287 W · 255 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 542 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+56.2%+$9.26
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$5.25
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on August 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.75
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.15
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on August 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$7.2
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$3.85
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$71.04
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$7
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on August 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.6
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on August 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$8.28
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$10.15
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on August 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$22.8
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$64
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.04
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$26.98
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$15.05
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT+122.7%+$19.63
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.8
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.2
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$9.45
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$7.28
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$54.9
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on August 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.8
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on August 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.85
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.6
Showing 25 of 542 picks, newest first.
Tweetslast resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT7458.1%43 W · 31 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Tweets — the 74 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+45.6%+$36.01
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.51
Will White House post 180-199 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.96
Will Elon Musk post 720-759 tweets in July 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.4
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$28.5
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.14
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT+50.3%+$13.23
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$139Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT+32.2%+$44.66
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$10.27
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+71.1%+$52.98
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$277Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+74.1%+$205.55
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.49
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.86
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$426Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+35.7%+$152.03
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT+29.3%+$32.41
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$237Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT+56%+$132.71
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+512.2%+$200.8
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+52.5%+$48.2
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+56.5%+$33.41
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$14.76
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.2
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+31.3%+$13.59
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT+34.5%+$26.42
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+94.8%+$36.5
Showing 25 of 74 picks, newest first.
World Politicslast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT4355.8%24 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 43 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on August 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.4
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$31
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on August 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$21.07
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on August 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.36
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on August 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.6
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$22.36
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$9.62
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on July 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+90.2%+$16.19
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on July 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$26.4
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.42
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$93.62
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on July 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$7.84
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on July 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.28
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.2
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$41.4
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.22
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$77.21
Will there be no next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$4.2
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.6
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+69.6%+$24.63
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on July 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.97
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on July 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.33
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$25.2
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$5.92
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on July 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$4.03
Showing 25 of 43 picks, newest first.
Commoditieslast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT2330.4%7 W · 16 L-4.4wins-0.19per pick50cpaid-51.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
Commodities — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.52
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.39
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$21.6
Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.49
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+43.8%+$34.6
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on July 29?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.6
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 24?backed Up · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.2
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 21?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.4
Will fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.17
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 16?backed Up · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.64
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on July 14?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.3
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on July 9?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.96
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$145Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+29.3%+$42.35
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$225Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$224.58
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on July 6?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.5
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+28.8%+$18.15
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$7.6
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.22
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on May 19?backed Up · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.36
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 19?backed Up · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.32
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on May 13?backed Up · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$50.16
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on May 11?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$84.15
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on April 27?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$74.34
All 23 picks, newest first.
Movieslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT2227.3%6 W · 16 L-4.2wins-0.19per pick46cpaid-57.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
Movies — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "The End of Oak Street" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 23m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.65
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 360m and 370m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.72
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$115.73
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 350m and 360m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT+95.2%+$36.58
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 240m and 260m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.85
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 260m and 280m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT+42%+$14.8
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.7
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 220m and 240m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$57
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Day Box Office be at least 152m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.36
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.24
Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 86m and 92m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.6
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 115m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$156.84
Will "Evil Dead Burn" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 20m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+38.7%+$23.72
Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 68m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.5
Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 68m and 77m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$31.39
Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 77m and 86m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$17
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 77m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.67
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$47.4
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.63
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 7m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.25
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 25m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.96
All 22 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT1942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$93.47
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.89
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.25
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$96
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$13.95
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+60.3%+$18.8
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.6
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$32.49
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$19.2
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+57%+$32.33
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$15.5
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.16
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.6
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$29.58
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$72
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.76
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.28
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.29
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.33
All 19 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Aug 2, 2026, EDT1735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-45.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
AI — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $0.70T on July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.09
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $0.70T and $0.80T on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.89
Will there be 5 or more ChatGPT outages in July 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.8
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$14.5
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.63
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$18.48
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.8
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+105.5%+$19.46
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 29, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$5.94
GPT-5.6 released by July 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$31.04
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.39
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$71
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$21.56
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.2
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.56
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.84
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.6
All 17 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jul 27, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 3T yuan?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$23.23
Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 2T yuan?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.56
Will Bending Spoons' market cap be less than $16B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.6
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.42
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.91
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month?backed Up · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+158.1%+$20.21
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.91
Will Shivon Zilis be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.8
Will Applied Aerospace & Defense's market cap be between $3.25B and $3.75B at market close on IPO day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$27.06
All 9 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jul 17, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-41.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-28.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+36.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 24, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+145.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+29.8%+$6.13
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.