Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde7288551282acee6217f00e263ac63ff8d4193006bfd1c48b330dc0e0072723
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,962
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,425
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,962 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 2c | 1,955$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.59 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 3c | 852.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 42c | 629.93$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.32 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 544.07$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 50c | 529.04$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.41 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 60c | 520.97$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.58 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0546…17a9backed No | 79c | 385.1$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.39 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 44c | 311.49$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.44 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 47c | 300.1$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.27 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 63c | 280.74$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.66 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 56c | 267.88$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.02 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 44c | 259.95$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.55 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 239$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.21 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 54c | 221.44$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.14 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 36c | 218.19$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.4 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 57c | 216.16$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.01 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 9c | 215.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 13c | 205.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 42c | 180.58$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.98 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 59c | 170.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 54c | 157.96$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.01 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 55c | 147$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.15 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 52c | 144.27$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.82 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 28c | 143.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec90…fd41backed Yes | 41c | 141.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 57c | 138.23$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.84 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f35…9ea4backed Yes | 70c | 138$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.52 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 57c | 135.16$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.53 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 56c | 133.24$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.29 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e88…697dbacked No | 41c | 122.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.16 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 13c | 117.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7d…6b2dbacked Yes | 16c | 113.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 26c | 108$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 54c | 107$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.11 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 42c | 107$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6c…6025backed Yes | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 45c | 103.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.79 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked No | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 56c | 99.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x582c…3266backed Yes | 71c | 98.7$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 55c | 94.11$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.24 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed No | 79c | 93.02$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 46c | 92.12$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.95 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 29c | 90.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 39c | 90$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.9 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 42c | 89.84$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.11 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 45c | 88.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 71c | 88.43$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed No | 44c | 86.78$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.19 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 46c | 86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…346abacked Yes | 38c | 85.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 45c | 79$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 56c | 78.3$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.85 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 37c | 76.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.15 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 39c | 75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 60c | 75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…66b0backed Yes | 38c | 74.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 54c | 74.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.14 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 14c | 70.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20f9…9577backed Yes | 59c | 66.46$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.21 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b37…0eb2backed Yes | 44c | 61.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 57c | 60.37$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 50c | 60.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 45c | 59.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 45c | 57.77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 31c | 56.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.98 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x598f…528bbacked Yes | 68c | 46.84$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 69c | 44.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 67c | 42.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 47c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 64c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 51c | 37.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 54c | 33.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 60c | 32.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72c8…c4b6backed Yes | 60c | 32.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 51c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…e864backed Yes | 41c | 31.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed No | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x388b…5712backed Yes | 61c | 29.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1c…a9a5backed Yes | 45c | 29.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7240…9906backed Yes | 63c | 29.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked No | 49c | 28.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f17…9ec2backed Yes | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 53c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 59c | 27.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 64c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x3614…2397backed No | 53c | 24.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 56c | 24.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 78c | 21.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.