Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bf5e80484de1b10ddd52b16baf6c1a640e6454123dc9911b2b4b000885ffaeb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,624
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,624 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8557…66f6backed Yes | 1c | 11,052$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 4c | 1,224$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba5…c168backed Yes | 3c | 629.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed Yes | 33c | 536.69$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.99 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed Yes | 44c | 502.69$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.88 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 72c | 500$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.91 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 3c | 446.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 30c | 294.15$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.76 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 15c | 293.31$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.33 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 47c | 274.52$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.86 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 79c | 252.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked No | 7c | 250$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.5 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed No | 78c | 236.9$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.51 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…c5cebacked No | 34c | 231.01$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.45 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked No | 29c | 226.47$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.7 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +12.2wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed Yes | 69c | 216.81$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 210$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.18 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 55c | 196.57$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.32 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 47c | 187.03$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.48 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 58c | 176.66$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 19c | 166.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed No | 47c | 157.27$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.1 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb201…2766backed Yes | 69c | 145.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f34…7fd6backed No | 46c | 124.05$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.17 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 61c | 122.45$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.93 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d74…6bcbbacked No | 16c | 112.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.17 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa5…7059backed No | 28c | 110.76$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.84 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 50c | 109.32$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.83 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 69c | 108.49$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.15 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 63c | 106.94$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.48 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 104.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 101$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 54c | 97.1$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.56 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 31c | 96.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 18c | 88.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 71c | 82.31$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.76 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…401ebacked Yes | 60c | 81.42$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.58 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 67c | 78.07$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.41 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…5e1abacked Yes | 71c | 70.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 46c | 67.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 77c | 65.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 73c | 63.14$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.94 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea1f…5578backed Yes | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…0ce5backed No | 39c | 55.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.18 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 66c | 54.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.37 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 45c | 51.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…0d2bbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7475…ae6abacked No | 72c | 48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc66c…7c32backed Yes | 69c | 47.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 46c | 47.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0acf…edf9backed Yes | 45c | 46.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…7838backed Yes | 27c | 45.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Yes | 35c | 43.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 25c | 43.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5059…7bddbacked Yes | 40c | 41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…123abacked Yes | 49c | 38.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 37c | 37.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 70c | 35.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…bf4abacked Yes | 71c | 33.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x531d…f04fbacked Yes | 44c | 33.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 64c | 31.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…df88backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +198.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…c395backed Yes | 71c | 29.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18c3…2a14backed Yes | 46c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa81a…c791backed No | 53c | 22.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb454…2a8ebacked No | 71c | 21.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…33d3backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1e…704ebacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc5…b430backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09ef…5482backed Yes | 70c | 16.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 74c | 13.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.