TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc959…c37f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
460
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Other European Leagues, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Other European Leagues at 52 out of 100; worst South American Leagues at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT36023.6%85 W · 275 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick26cpaid+10.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 360 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+72.5%+$797.51
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$122.22
Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$141
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Spain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$400
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will France finish 3rd place in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will France win on 2026-07-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
France vs. England: Team to Winbacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 England?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
France vs. England: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$700Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$329.41
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 England?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 England?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Spread: France (-1.5)backed France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 England?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 England?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+640.7%+$384.44
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$117
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$220
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$51
Showing 25 of 360 picks, newest first.
Weatherlast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT4643.5%20 W · 26 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 46 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$8.57
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$122.4
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+30.4%+$91.17
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.98
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$78
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT+102.8%+$51.41
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+41.9%+$46.13
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+29.5%+$44.24
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT+85.9%+$85.87
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$130
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT+115.4%+$57.71
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$31.22
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+113.2%+$56.62
Showing 25 of 46 picks, newest first.
Tweetslast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT3225%8 W · 24 L-3.2wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-37.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Tweets — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+39.4%+$70.94
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$155.99
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$220Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+424.5%+$934.01
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+200.1%+$200.1
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+150.2%+$180.28
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$130
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$135Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+100.3%+$135.39
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$220Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+78.1%+$171.85
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$380Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$380
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagueslast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick20cpaid+42%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference Leaguelast resolved Aug 12, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick16cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

South American Leagueslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian Leaguelast resolved Aug 16, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-34.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Asian League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$15.82
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesligalast resolved Aug 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hannover 96 win on 2026-08-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$76
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.