Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0f7d913794abd420ac95eac36e85d4d69e4c0161ebd7a6ac57ce0a22514bf75

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Aug 19, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $205,470
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $161,532

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $205,470 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 209 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x114a…f1d1backed Yes	8c	17,458$1,396 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,396.4	40	12.5%5 W · 35 L	-2.4wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes	19c	8,467$1,619 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,619.35	192	15.6%30 W · 162 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	0c	8,432$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.7	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	8,067$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.99	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	40c	6,984$2,816 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,816.33	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a77…f859backed Yes	1c	6,900$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.94	153	12.4%19 W · 134 L	+5.7wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+27.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	6c	4,166$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246.81	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	39c	3,991$1,566 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,565.92	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3f…a942backed No	61c	3,328$2,022 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,306.49	115	56.5%65 W · 50 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes	13c	3,118$410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$409.66	223	25.1%56 W · 167 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2127…37f2backed No	70c	3,000$2,093 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$906.86	108	66.7%72 W · 36 L	+4.8wins	+0.04per pick	62cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed No	71c	2,668$1,905 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$763.45	122	27%33 W · 89 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	70c	2,444$1,716 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$728.89	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	25c	2,312$580 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$580.28	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	15c	2,289$354 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$354.32	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	22c	2,256$496 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$495.86	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x936f…f16dbacked Yes	5c	2,047$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.8wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7cd4…30aebacked Yes	27c	2,014$548 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$547.64	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa301…bcbdbacked Yes	26c	1,794$466 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$465.93	41	17.1%7 W · 34 L	-3.9wins	-0.10per pick	27cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4262…0ef2backed Yes	30c	1,773$532 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$532.15	51	19.6%10 W · 41 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	+69.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No	72c	1,724$1,244 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$480.29	72	56.9%41 W · 31 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7e88…b898backed Yes	31c	1,629$505 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$505.45	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	30c	1,600$482 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$481.94	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes	30c	1,553$461 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$460.6	316	21.8%69 W · 247 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	9c	1,444$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.52	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x21d3…8d3fbacked Yes	34c	1,417$488 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$488.42	65	40%26 W · 39 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf1d…4102backed Yes	27c	1,339$361 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$361.4	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No	73c	1,325$961 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$363.75	101	43.6%44 W · 57 L	+4.6wins	+0.05per pick	39cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5364…c64dbacked No	73c	1,303$950 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$353.46	151	64.9%98 W · 53 L	+10.2wins	+0.07per pick	58cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb36…0d51backed Yes	2c	1,300$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.1	69	21.7%15 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	+26%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	65c	1,100$714 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$386	248	73%181 W · 67 L	+15.9wins	+0.06per pick	67cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7354…430fbacked No	71c	1,036$736 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$300.43	188	77.1%145 W · 43 L	+12.3wins	+0.07per pick	71cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x514b…6931backed Yes	30c	995.12$303 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$302.88	104	41.3%43 W · 61 L	+9.5wins	+0.09per pick	32cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes	24c	973.38$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$237.86	232	22.4%52 W · 180 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	16c	969.96$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.99	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed Yes	27c	967.41$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	176	31.8%56 W · 120 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	7c	874.32$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.3	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	16c	851.95$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.66	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	10c	813.46$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.24	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2f69…cf59backed Yes	2c	812.22$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.85	107	10.3%11 W · 96 L	+3.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+74.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f5…2d38backed No	80c	803.98$640 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$164.4	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.23per pick	44cpaid	+29.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked No	74c	792.47$587 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$205.27	43	58.1%25 W · 18 L	+2.3wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbf3…aaa0backed Yes	28c	779.84$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.6	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	28cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	9c	774.41$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.12	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	19c	772.5$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.04	407	19.7%80 W · 327 L	-18.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a79…e2afbacked No	65c	696.67$452 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$244.49	46	39.1%18 W · 28 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7863…ffddbacked Yes	21c	688.52$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-1.2wins	-0.08per pick	21cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0df4…c7cbbacked No	76c	656.04$502 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$154.3	55	67.3%37 W · 18 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	64cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb26f…aa5fbacked Yes	26c	653.85$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	49	18.4%9 W · 40 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked No	66c	610.91$403 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$208.28	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1c3…73fdbacked Yes	30c	577.97$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.91	68	32.4%22 W · 46 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x08d9…80a4backed Yes	26c	566.74$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	+1.5wins	+0.10per pick	23cpaid	+67.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No	77c	551.41$423 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$128.82	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed92…5c02backed Yes	29c	536.25$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8d3…8c21backed Yes	12c	531.54$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.24	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes	3c	525.49$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.35	395	18.7%74 W · 321 L	-57.0wins	-0.14per pick	33cpaid	-60.5%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0x8f87…2b4dbacked Yes	38c	519.75$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	35cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	16c	500.04$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.82	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	10c	500$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa32d…df56backed Yes	20c	500$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd928…23cabacked Yes	26c	499.99$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.8	47	14.9%7 W · 40 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d8c…757abacked No	74c	490.82$361 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$129.86	30	50%15 W · 15 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d75…0474backed Yes	13c	489.17$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.59	30	53.3%16 W · 14 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1425…d60dbacked Yes	12c	486.41$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.37	107	42.1%45 W · 62 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf452…8ff9backed Yes	25c	450$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.5	151	28.5%43 W · 108 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfec7…ae1cbacked Yes	14c	428.57$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	132	15.9%21 W · 111 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7741…23e6backed Yes	21c	422.47$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.61	69	36.2%25 W · 44 L	+4.1wins	+0.06per pick	30cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x633f…0e01backed Yes	35c	408.24$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142	92	26.1%24 W · 68 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2031…5ee7backed Yes	9c	376$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.22	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes	27c	370.37$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	267	22.8%61 W · 206 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01a4…4967backed No	76c	365.8$276 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.58	160	56.9%91 W · 69 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	14c	361.72$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.8	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9996…bda1backed Yes	20c	350$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	149	13.4%20 W · 129 L	-9.6wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb84c…e169backed No	59c	329.97$195 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$135.29	95	53.7%51 W · 44 L	+6.1wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+21.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes	34c	327.21$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.91	173	35.3%61 W · 112 L	+3.0wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	+1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7172…b910backed Yes	12c	325$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	60	16.7%10 W · 50 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-16%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5f43…a070backed Yes	22c	324.01$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.42	35	22.9%8 W · 27 L	-2.0wins	-0.06per pick	29cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No	61c	321$197 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$123.97	221	60.2%133 W · 88 L	+4.6wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes	10c	318.41$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.78	155	7.7%12 W · 143 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	14c	309.99$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.9	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x580f…e755backed Yes	21c	297.04$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.16	55	18.2%10 W · 45 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1dc…ce46backed Yes	26c	273.81$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	13c	273.6$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.62	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcc0f…8039backed Yes	26c	262.26$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.94	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	21cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe83c…04cebacked Yes	27c	260$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71	119	32.8%39 W · 80 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes	39c	256.41$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No	67c	250.07$166 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.73	388	48.5%188 W · 200 L	+16.2wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed No	68c	249.49$169 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.02	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x973d…a6b5backed Yes	32c	242.27$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.95	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.09per pick	26cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x339d…06dabacked Yes	11c	237$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.49	88	21.6%19 W · 69 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc191…0f9abacked Yes	32c	236.11$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	37	24.3%9 W · 28 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7374…38ffbacked Yes	19c	231.75$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.03	113	59.3%67 W · 46 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	60cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes	18c	230.04$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.51	272	24.3%66 W · 206 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b4e…f5e1backed No	72c	224.96$162 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.99	13	92.3%12 W · 1 L	+2.3wins	+0.18per pick	74cpaid	+25.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes	32c	223.67$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.69	77	16.9%13 W · 64 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72be…67b8backed Yes	26c	214.32$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.87	97	24.7%24 W · 73 L	+4.3wins	+0.04per pick	20cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3342…35c2backed Yes	14c	214.29$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	28	17.9%5 W · 23 L	-3.1wins	-0.11per pick	29cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x984f…ba69backed Yes	22c	213.68$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.46	158	17.7%28 W · 130 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No	74c	213$157 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.14	208	57.2%119 W · 89 L	+4.4wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc959…c37fbacked Yes	39c	205.13$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	32	25%8 W · 24 L	-3.2wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event