Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa093d5a689f2dbce7b76a95ec3a872d6efe62b1fa9e6f8ef7c1e8de20ac73791

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Aug 21, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $482,299
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $256,113

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $482,299 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 167 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes	8c	31,736$2,603 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,602.72	192	15.6%30 W · 162 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	0c	25,000$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.27	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	24,295$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.95	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes	15c	16,858$2,534 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,533.69	144	27.1%39 W · 105 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes	0c	14,790$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.79	200	9%18 W · 182 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+173%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb831…892bbacked Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	179	17.9%32 W · 147 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-40%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	20c	10,000$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x524d…4495backed Yes	6c	9,199$516 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$516.23	162	22.2%36 W · 126 L	+8.4wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	3c	8,009$262 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$262.13	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	2c	7,920$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.06	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	6,062$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.9	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes	4c	5,037$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.32	50	24%12 W · 38 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes	9c	4,992$431 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$430.7	223	25.1%56 W · 167 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	6c	4,441$256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$256.16	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2061…8ec9backed No	77c	4,422$3,396 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,025.67	138	15.9%22 W · 116 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8288…5519backed Yes	5c	4,085$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.6	159	29.6%47 W · 112 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	3c	4,000$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked Yes	0c	4,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	220	23.6%52 W · 168 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Yes	5c	3,953$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.67	101	43.6%44 W · 57 L	+4.6wins	+0.05per pick	39cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	16c	3,821$626 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$626.42	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	0c	3,580$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.94	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21d3…8d3fbacked Yes	20c	3,540$707 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$706.69	65	40%26 W · 39 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	9c	2,981$256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$256.33	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa50…3327backed Yes	24c	2,980$714 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$713.62	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes	5c	2,958$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.2	335	27.8%93 W · 242 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes	5c	2,893$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.22	155	7.7%12 W · 143 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cd4…30aebacked Yes	3c	2,805$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.58	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	2c	2,789$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.61	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe211…9fb8backed Yes	5c	2,720$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.96	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	+81.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	10c	2,710$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$264.75	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4262…0ef2backed Yes	1c	2,555$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	51	19.6%10 W · 41 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	+69.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x7505…2978backed Yes	18c	2,553$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450	169	41.4%70 W · 99 L	+6.2wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	12c	2,500$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	1c	2,400$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.6	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	27c	2,400$640 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$639.95	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	16c	2,360$389 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$389.14	407	19.7%80 W · 327 L	-18.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	16c	2,328$381 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$381.11	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a77…f859backed Yes	5c	2,324$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.63	153	12.4%19 W · 134 L	+5.7wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+27.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	18c	2,268$411 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$410.59	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0186…40edbacked Yes	7c	2,258$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.01	97	33%32 W · 65 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes	19c	2,194$425 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$425.03	412	30.8%127 W · 285 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6167…4447backed Yes	32c	2,188$705 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$705.22	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed Yes	2c	2,178$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.91	312	42.9%134 W · 178 L	+20.0wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes	6c	2,169$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.57	316	21.8%69 W · 247 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5e8…8354backed Yes	0c	2,161$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.07	16	25%4 W · 12 L	+1.8wins	+0.12per pick	13cpaid	+319.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	3c	2,140$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	2c	2,073$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	3c	2,052$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.92	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	7c	2,012$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.87	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes	10c	2,012$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.02	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes	1c	2,004$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.01	140	37.1%52 W · 88 L	+5.2wins	+0.04per pick	33cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x13d8…06c4backed Yes	2c	2,000$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.99	39	12.8%5 W · 34 L	+1.9wins	+0.05per pick	8cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12e0…d6f8backed Yes	12c	1,868$223 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.85	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa301…bcbdbacked Yes	23c	1,855$432 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$432.15	41	17.1%7 W · 34 L	-3.9wins	-0.10per pick	27cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	8c	1,836$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.16	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x408f…8c91backed No	73c	1,819$1,333 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$485.79	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.21per pick	61cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x53e1…6a12backed Yes	8c	1,783$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.03	39	28.2%11 W · 28 L	+2.4wins	+0.06per pick	22cpaid	+14%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	1,731$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.06	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes	1c	1,693$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.04	183	4.4%8 W · 175 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	+235.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes	2c	1,610$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.99	232	17.7%41 W · 191 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	4c	1,600$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.54	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x79e0…7d6fbacked Yes	2c	1,582$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.43	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	22c	1,518$329 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$329.34	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdff1…f287backed Yes	23c	1,517$344 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$343.64	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes	7c	1,515$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.75	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	+8.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	2c	1,500$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.5	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d06…b2eabacked No	74c	1,481$1,098 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$382.91	67	44.8%30 W · 37 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4368…8554backed Yes	23c	1,434$334 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$333.88	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	3c	1,410$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.61	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa67b…af43backed Yes	19c	1,366$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	159	22.6%36 W · 123 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	1,314$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.44	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	1c	1,244$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	3c	1,148$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.5	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfee1…746fbacked Yes	20c	1,003$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	140	22.1%31 W · 109 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes	24c	1,000$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235.95	173	35.3%61 W · 112 L	+3.0wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	+1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	4c	999.95$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	12c	988$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.26	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0862…9a02backed Yes	8c	970.99$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.37	111	24.3%27 W · 84 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	2c	878.84$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.79	245	24.9%61 W · 184 L	-13.8wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-45%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed No	77c	866.61$663 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$203.41	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	5c	859.78$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.87	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	10c	828.92$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.17	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x31fb…edf2backed Yes	2c	820.99$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.26	73	34.2%25 W · 48 L	+4.8wins	+0.07per pick	28cpaid	-13%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1855…f2a7backed Yes	12c	802.9$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.02	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xbb19…e061backed Yes	9c	791.61$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	41cpaid	-48.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	9c	789.67$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.66	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked Yes	5c	783$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.11	274	17.5%48 W · 226 L	+11.0wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe847…dad6backed Yes	22c	779.46$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.59	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed No	75c	748.21$560 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$188.14	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f87…2b4dbacked Yes	28c	719.42$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	35cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes	2c	665$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.06	182	4.4%8 W · 174 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd676…a859backed Yes	34c	648.04$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.81	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7de…537abacked Yes	3c	600$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.79	47	10.6%5 W · 42 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	+93.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x159f…4043backed Yes	18c	592.84$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	87	21.8%19 W · 68 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbb36…0d51backed Yes	12c	586.3$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.86	69	21.7%15 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	+26%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes	12c	571.17$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	232	22.4%52 W · 180 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fcc…5c9bbacked Yes	2c	540$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.33	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-1.7wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	74c	527.96$392 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$135.59	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb5aa…c200backed Yes	22c	500.11$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.62	158	20.9%33 W · 125 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd928…23cabacked Yes	21c	499.01$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.66	47	14.9%7 W · 40 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event