TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x8f66…b986

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
711
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: Tweets, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 53 out of 100; worst NBA at 39.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweetslast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT56817.4%99 W · 469 L+18.3wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 568 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.57
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.49
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$112.08
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.23
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$44
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.02
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$155.03
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$450Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+77.8%+$350.02
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$970Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$970.2
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$510Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$510.26
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$86.37
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.61
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.5
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$437Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$436.8
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$130.98
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$158
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$53
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in July 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$148.73
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$29
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$78.82
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$294Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$293.72
Showing 25 of 568 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT229.1%2 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick10cpaid+15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$169Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+2,271%+$3,831.1
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$20.3
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$202Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$201.82
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$30
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$60.9
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.89
Another Houthi strike on Israel before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$773Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$773.32
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$132.1
Israel strike on Iran on June 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$2,581Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,580.84
Major cyberattack on Iran in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$2,439Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,439.33
Israel strike on Iran on June 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$6,714Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$6,713.51
Israel strike on Iran on June 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$192Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$191.56
US military action against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+59.7%+$238.98
Israel strike on Iran on June 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$1,013Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,012.99
Israel strike on Iran on June 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$244Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$244.15
Israel strike on Iran on June 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$309Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$309.08
Israel strike on Iran on June 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$159.6
Israel strike on Iran on June 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$367Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$366.82
Israel strike on Iran on June 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$273Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$272.66
Iran strike on Israel by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$5,197Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,196.75
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$576Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2025, EST-100%-$575.72
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$1,198Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST-100%-$1,197.54
All 22 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST1811.1%2 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-67.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$477Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$477.03
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$189Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$188.6
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$70.62
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$93.63
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$14.45
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$1,934Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,933.93
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$689Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT+337%+$2,321.13
Trump exits Russia x Ukraine negotiations before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$259Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$258.83
Will Russia capture territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$4,758Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT+49.5%+$2,353.55
Russia x Ukraine prisoner exchange by June 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$1,672Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,672.06
Trump exits Russia x Ukraine negotiations before June? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$448Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$447.93
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$595Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$595.28
Will Russia capture territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$29.34
Ukraine agrees to resume Russian natural gas transit in January? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$37.45
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$36.47
Will Russia capture Kurakhove before December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$3,099Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST-100%-$3,099.18
All 18 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST1428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-23.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 January 26-1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$69.63
Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 December 15-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$603Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST+233.5%+$1,408.04
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$680Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+172.3%+$1,172.14
Will Bitcoin dip to $98,000 November 10-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$420Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$420
Will Bitcoin reach $126k in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$972Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$971.53
Bitcoin above $112K on September 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$50.09
Will Bitcoin dip to $107K August 25–31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$2,960Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+170.3%+$5,040
Will Bitcoin dip to $108K August 25–31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$1,774Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,773.73
Will Bitcoin reach $117K in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$87.58
Will Bitcoin dip to $112K in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$50.53
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $106K on July 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$3,170Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT+89.3%+$2,830
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on July 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$4,945Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,945
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$80
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$800Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$800
All 14 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 10, 2025, EDT1435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$374Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$374.05
Israel military action against Iran in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+614.3%+$679.12
Will Elon Musk create a new political party in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$367Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$367.13
Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$380Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$379.82
Will Trump say "George Washington" during his 4th of July remarks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.33
Will Trump say "America / American" 35+ times during his 4th of July remarks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$27.14
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June  23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,292Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,291.67
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June  30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2025, EDT+30.4%+$11.06
Will Pete Hegseth be Trump's Defense Secretary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST-100%-$77.16
Trump deportation executive order on Day 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$102
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$187Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+75.5%+$141.25
Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$525Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$524.98
Will Trump say "hell" during his inauguration speech?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$233Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+42.9%+$99.71
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his inauguration speech?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$141Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+86.6%+$122.23
All 14 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST1414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-59.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$32.24
Bayrou out as French PM by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$65.5
French confidence vote fails?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$46.7
Will valid votes be between 36 million and 38 million in South Korean election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$69.47
Will valid votes be between 32 million and 34 million in South Korean election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$150.46
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$2,801Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+267.5%+$7,492.68
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$2,790Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,789.93
Will the AfD win between 22% and 24% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$48.03
Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$333Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST-100%-$332.58
Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$5,212Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$5,212.35
South Korean President impeached in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$4,704Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2024, EST-100%-$4,703.89
<180 MPs vote to impeach Yoon?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$2,402Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2024, EST-100%-$2,401.61
180-199 MPs vote to impeach Yoon?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2024, EST+104.1%+$74.24
South Korean President impeached by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$182Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2024, EST-100%-$182
All 14 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2025, EST1323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-55.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Premier League — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal vs. Manchester City end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$1,465Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2025, EST-100%-$1,465
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-02-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$1,024Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$1,024
Will Leicester win on 2025-01-26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$670Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2025, EST-100%-$670
Will Arsenal win on 2025-01-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$1,692Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST-100%-$1,692.13
Will Chelsea win on 2025-01-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$505Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST-100%-$505
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-01-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST+75.4%+$35.24
Will Brentford win on 2025-01-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST+117.4%+$586.96
Will Newcastle win on 2025-01-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST+81.8%+$31.63
Will Leicester vs. Manchester City end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2024, EST-100%-$50
Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2024, EST-100%-$50
Will Brentford win on 2024-12-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2024, EST-100%-$25.18
Will Fulham win on 2024-12-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2024, EST-100%-$100
Will Manchester United vs. Bournemouth end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2024, EST-100%-$100
All 13 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Sep 17, 2025, EDT120%0 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$62.43
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$311Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$311
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$46.25
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$202Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$202.25
Will Powell say "Median" during June Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$676Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$675.61
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$50
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$49
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after December 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$13.5
Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" during December FOMC Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$28.71
Will Jerome Powell say "good afternoon" during December FOMC Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$29.69
All 12 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2025, EDT128.3%1 W · 11 L-3.5wins-0.29per pick38cpaid-73.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
NBA — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$192Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$191.74
Pacers vs. Thunderbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$2,165Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,164.92
Thunder vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.08
Timberwolves vs. Thunderbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$250
Timberwolves vs Thunder: O/U 220.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$500
Spread: Thunder (-8.5)backed Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$250
Knicks vs. Pacersbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Thunder vs. Timberwolvesbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$4,704Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,703.74
Grizzlies vs. Kingsbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$162Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST-100%-$161.89
Spurs vs. Nuggetsbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST+222.6%+$445.16
Wizards vs. Pelicansbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST-100%-$300
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2024, EST-100%-$200
All 12 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid+33.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2025, EST540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ohio State vs. Notre Damebacked Notre Dame · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$43.56
Minnesota vs. Virginia Techbacked Virginia Tech · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST-100%-$200
North Texas vs. Texas Statebacked North Texas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Boston College vs. Nebraskabacked Nebraska · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2024, EST+37%+$11.17
UConn vs. North Carolinabacked UConn · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2024, EST+122.2%+$134.44
All 5 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 21, 2024, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Feb 17, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Nov 25, 2024, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$1,064Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,064
Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$1,242Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,242.01
All 2 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 29, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Colts vs. Giantsbacked Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$330Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2024, EST+40.4%+$133.16
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Aug 26, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$99.96
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.