Premier League · resolved market
Will Leicester vs. Manchester City end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0c6546aa37b8d3077a049f049b3931e08f0b9877d3edf450f5e89db260d44a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,682
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,462
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,682 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x718f…7edcbacked Yes | 11c | 1,450$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…e4a7backed Yes | 1c | 1,427$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 10c | 790.12$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.21 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 15c | 757.74$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.29 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 684.53$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 246 | 30.5%75 W · 171 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdd…64a7backed Yes | 18c | 477.09$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…a3b9backed Yes | 16c | 293.75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f2…17b9backed Yes | 16c | 288.81$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Yes | 15c | 253.53$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +7.1wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c7…053ebacked Yes | 14c | 249.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae6…01febacked Yes | 11c | 217.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c19…e741backed Yes | 14c | 199.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Yes | 15c | 195.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 184 | 33.7%62 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…821cbacked Yes | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…0050backed Yes | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 10c | 148.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 406 | 40.9%166 W · 240 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2798…3d88backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2453…28e2backed Yes | 18c | 140.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 256 | 37.9%97 W · 159 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x964b…167abacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b1…d2e6backed Yes | 16c | 124.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +39%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Yes | 11c | 105.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec5c…ce46backed Yes | 19c | 103.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 133 | 36.1%48 W · 85 L | -12.7wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…07f5backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 109 | 32.1%35 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa918…18c5backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 82 | 30.5%25 W · 57 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x377c…4a10backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68a7…e832backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…b756backed Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…9482backed Yes | 15c | 97.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4782…6435backed Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…935abacked Yes | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Leicester vs. Manchester City end in a draw?this page
- Will Leicester win on 2024-12-29?No won
- Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-29?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.