Premier League · resolved market
Will Leicester win on 2024-12-29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6098b6bb25985ede317815c3c7a5efa841817afb29091e006618c905f7042e95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,757
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,582
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,757 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 11c | 10,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 680 | 26.3%179 W · 501 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1875…eb5ebacked Yes | 10c | 8,972$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.26 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e54…44fdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,185$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Yes | 8c | 2,000$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 7c | 1,980$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.4 | 449 | 39.6%178 W · 271 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x236a…9a00backed Yes | 10c | 1,780$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +66%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 11c | 1,498$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.47 | 296 | 43.6%129 W · 167 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe803…8efbbacked Yes | 10c | 1,108$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.77 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c64…d9e5backed Yes | 10c | 1,019$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.86 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eae…f263backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb5…f8d5backed Yes | 10c | 999.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x891b…d1b8backed Yes | 11c | 726.18$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Yes | 12c | 558.33$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b0…0261backed Yes | 10c | 514.7$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e04…a9b3backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71ee…03b5backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3051…f50cbacked Yes | 11c | 467.36$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.41 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…7cf6backed Yes | 10c | 400$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 4c | 390$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 119 | 15.1%18 W · 101 L | -10.4wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2798…3d88backed Yes | 6c | 333.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…e52cbacked Yes | 10c | 300$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbf…2760backed Yes | 9c | 250$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7399…1e41backed Yes | 9c | 249.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 239.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ae…36ddbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bd…b9a1backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec2…33aabacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba99…8f26backed Yes | 9c | 167.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…b3b7backed Yes | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d31…1d0bbacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Yes | 9c | 143.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 82 | 30.5%25 W · 57 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x863a…2b7bbacked Yes | 10c | 115$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ef…485ebacked Yes | 10c | 106.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c0…05b5backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…eac3backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…375abacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x088d…b1b0backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…18fdbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a85…a1bdbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Leicester win on 2024-12-29?this page
- Will Leicester vs. Manchester City end in a draw?No won
- Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-29?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.