TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x02c0…05b5

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
110
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
13

Best Category: NFL, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category NFL at 54 out of 100; worst World Politics at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2931%9 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-39.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Trump be impeached in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$28.41
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.99
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+185.7%+$82.05
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Will Trump remove Harvard's Intl Student ban before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$45.57
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Japan before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.39
Will TikTok be on the App Store on May 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$9.98
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.78
TikTok sale announced before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.99
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$50.91
Will Trump end Department of Education in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Trump signs national abortion ban?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.73
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.08
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$55
Will the U.S. abandon Syrian base before April 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$82.78
U.S. Government funding lapse on March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT+144.7%+$21.91
Big Balls removed from DOGE in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Will RFK Jr. be Trump's HHS Secretary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$12
Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2025, EST+198.6%+$108.82
Trump declassifies JFK files in first week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2025, EST-100%-$25.48
Will Caitlyn Jenner attend presidential inauguration?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST+29%+$19.05
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$65.44
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+66.7%+$11.19
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$6.54
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk train station by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT+212.5%+$21.25
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.48
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$108.35
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$5.53
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT+194.1%+$23.62
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.34
Russia x Ukraine prisoner exchange by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2025, EDT+43.3%+$5.19
Will Russia capture territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$82.54
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.36
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Russia recapture Sudzha by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$8.99
Zelenskyy puts on a suit by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST-100%-$45.94
Will Trump sanction Russia before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$53.98
Will Russia recapture Sudzha by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Ukraine hits Moscow before 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 21 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 14, 2025, EST1855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Grizzlies vs. Rocketsbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2025, EST-100%-$15
76ers vs. Kingsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Nuggets vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2024, EST-100%-$12
Bulls vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2024, EST-100%-$15
Knicks vs. Wizardsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2024, EST-100%-$10
Heat vs. Rocketsbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2024, EST+399.2%+$42.19
Grizzlies vs. Pelicansbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2024, EST+25%+$5
Bulls vs. Hawksbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2024, EST-100%-$40
Thunder vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2024, EST-100%-$20
Nuggets vs. Sunsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2024, EST-100%-$20
Lakers vs. Warriorsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2024, EST+150%+$30
76ers vs. Celticsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2024, EST+85.2%+$17.04
Pacers vs. Warriorsbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2024, EST+69.5%+$13.9
Suns vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2024, EST+42.9%+$8.57
Clippers vs. Grizzliesbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2024, EST+75.4%+$15.09
Spurs vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST+51.5%+$10.3
Rockets vs. Hornetsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST+38.9%+$7.78
Pacers vs. Kingsbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2024, EST+63.9%+$19.92
All 18 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1225%3 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-62.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will the UK recognize Palestine in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$5.3
Another Israel strike on Yemen in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+84.6%+$21.43
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.97
US-Saudi Arabia nuclear deal in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT+25%+$2.63
Will Russia pull out of Syria before April 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$120
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$62.11
Tel Aviv bus bomber arrested by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$59.99
Will Erdogan visit Syria by January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$19.08
Israel announces ceasefire by January 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$12.35
All 12 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 9, 2025, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 29, 2024, EST650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Louisiana Tech vs. Armybacked Louisiana Tech · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2024, EST-100%-$16.28
Texas Tech vs. Arkansasbacked Arkansas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2024, EST+38.9%+$9.72
Georgia Tech vs. Vanderbiltbacked Georgia Tech · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2024, EST-100%-$10
Rutgers vs. Kansas Statebacked Kansas State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2024, EST+33.3%+$5
Pittsburgh vs. Toledobacked Pittsburgh · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2024, EST-100%-$15
Northern Illinois vs. Fresno Statebacked Northern Illinois · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST+51.5%+$12.88
All 6 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Dec 29, 2024, EST425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-64.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-57.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 29, 2024, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+86.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Packers vs. Vikingsbacked Vikings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2024, EST+100%+$10
Buccaneers vs. Cowboysbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST+72.4%+$14.48
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 24, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Jan 17-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2025, EST-100%-$15
All 2 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will annual inflation increase by 2.3% or less in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT+100%+$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 19, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Dec 29, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Penguins vs. Islandersbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2024, EST-100%-$16.09
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Aug 7, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will GPT-5 be released by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
TikTok sale announced before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$41.68
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Jan 11, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SpaceX Starship 7th launch by Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2025, EST-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.