TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$341,893
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$282,372

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $341,893 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6994…7112backed Yes13c18,738$2,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,368.851154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+66.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed Yes20c14,201$2,839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,839.1535347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed Yes13c10,833$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,360.262025%5 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-51.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a15…0246backed Yes15c10,109$1,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,542.432020%4 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-31.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed Yes7c8,117$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.583630.6%11 W · 25 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-16.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes10c7,851$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$774.6567.1%4 W · 52 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-69.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x344f…bd80backed Yes5c7,328$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34850%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6264…9937backed Yes17c5,798$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002.4211350.4%57 W · 56 L+11.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+30.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2023…2d55backed Yes9c5,478$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.311010%1 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick20cpaid-79.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes14c4,665$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.52156.7%1 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.15per pick22cpaid-72.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes17c4,425$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.440433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed Yes4c4,236$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.997035.7%25 W · 45 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-1.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x34ac…4b00backed Yes5c3,731$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x054b…2339backed Yes12c3,606$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.62445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x36fd…c834backed No70c3,535$2,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,065.946440.6%26 W · 38 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-27.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked No80c3,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6002532%8 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes16c2,538$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.9131241.7%130 W · 182 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe680…8788backed Yes14c2,450$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3341942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-29.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes14c2,248$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.336141%25 W · 36 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-14.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes14c2,154$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.8540828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe5ee…0ababacked Yes7c2,025$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.722548%12 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+32.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5464…be5ebacked Yes11c2,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22080%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x90d2…4b5ebacked Yes3c2,000$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62100%0 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed No80c1,827$1,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.3811141.4%46 W · 65 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked Yes27c1,825$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.078037.5%30 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69cf…e75cbacked Yes4c1,730$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes11c1,600$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17110139.6%40 W · 61 L+10.2wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+32.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes21c1,242$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.7951138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e83…a4a0backed Yes9c1,241$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1105829.3%17 W · 41 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae06…77e1backed Yes25c1,207$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.852931%9 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5950…8c48backed Yes20c1,204$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.532814.3%4 W · 24 L-4.4wins-0.16per pick30cpaid-69.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes5c1,103$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5634440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes11c1,051$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.0936750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x67a9…c417backed Yes16c1,049$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.847230.6%22 W · 50 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe08f…2ad4backed Yes24c1,040$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.68825%2 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick9cpaid+279.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8e5…c1c2backed Yes5c1,037$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501520%3 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed Yes5c1,030$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.884318.6%8 W · 35 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed Yes3c1,023$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.77520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dc6…62e0backed Yes16c1,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1601315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick29cpaid-70.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes16c916$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.664619.6%9 W · 37 L-4.1wins-0.09per pick28cpaid-64%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9308…e2f5backed Yes7c905.74$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes7c903.69$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.7977636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31e3…9d7ebacked Yes22c846.16$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.641931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-34.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6617…966ebacked Yes12c846.04$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa64…a43dbacked No72c838.22$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.168433.3%28 W · 56 L+8.6wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+75.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xebda…294ebacked Yes8c804.59$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4b6…41a7backed No79c800.49$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.492330.4%7 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-36.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes16c800$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12827643.5%120 W · 156 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked Yes12c732.86$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.52015%3 W · 17 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick28cpaid-65.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c718.43$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.931,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52f5…19dabacked Yes15c717.38$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.9812245.9%56 W · 66 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes17c685.81$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.7730%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d2f…4adbbacked Yes16c625$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003672.2%26 W · 10 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+11.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe3cb…56b5backed No78c600.99$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.682462.5%15 W · 9 L+5.1wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+22.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa97b…16b4backed Yes16c600$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes12c600$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70581.7%1 W · 57 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-93.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes12c574.77$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.7626616.5%44 W · 222 L-24.7wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-49.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7343…59b6backed Yes9c555.56$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ec8…96a5backed Yes27c554.99$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.35644.6%25 W · 31 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02c0…05b5backed Yes11c549.38$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.111225%3 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-62.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x585b…753fbacked No80c514.09$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.13053.3%16 W · 14 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick46cpaid-4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed Yes6c497$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8233337.5%125 W · 208 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dbc…421dbacked Yes11c492$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes16c479.55$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.2320736.2%75 W · 132 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-18.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3eb…0829backed Yes17c441.18$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc152…4b04backed Yes4c410.92$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dd5…d07cbacked Yes5c410.02$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad8e…709cbacked Yes20c407.62$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.632347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97c1…3d36backed No75c400$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1004355.8%24 W · 19 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Yes20c400$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc369…4e87backed Yes5c399.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2726.9%5 W · 67 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-42.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcaab…24ddbacked Yes13c393.81$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.378834.1%30 W · 58 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x880e…00fcbacked No78c366.36$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.062060%12 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+39.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9127…6ff3backed Yes19c350$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes17c343.32$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.5113629.4%40 W · 96 L-10.7wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-48.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes18c342.93$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.054645.7%21 W · 25 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f8…f705backed Yes6c334.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.92231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-37.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x650d…c383backed Yes15c333.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No74c330$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.231649.7%157 W · 159 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x843a…8070backed Yes27c324.18$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.726023.3%14 W · 46 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x695a…331ebacked Yes17c309.91$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.68728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6fb…e73abacked Yes5c305.9$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.53638.9%14 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf27a…1d05backed Yes9c305$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.453619.4%7 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick20cpaid-31.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0735…005dbacked No60c297.85$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.356832.4%22 W · 46 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e41…d1fcbacked Yes19c268.42$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x139d…fe64backed Yes19c257.5$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.46615.2%10 W · 56 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-39.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x758c…074abacked Yes4c243.87$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.583016.7%5 W · 25 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+82.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes21c238.09$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504334.9%15 W · 28 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-22.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b89…7e0fbacked Yes13c230$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5b9…a71dbacked Yes35c220$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.33458.8%20 W · 14 L+5.0wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+36.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9442…8c83backed Yes45c211.11$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes13c200$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2519829.3%58 W · 140 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes13c200$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.247334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No71c200$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586254.8%34 W · 28 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid+10.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x24d2…92c5backed Yes30c199.99$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-16.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ab9…f1c7backed Yes5c190.93$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8178…32d8backed No78c175.17$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.394050%20 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7621…1ccfbacked Yes15c168.6$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.29475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.36per pick39cpaid+173.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No72c162.5$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.521259.9%127 W · 85 L+21.8wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3366…e5bebacked No62c160.02$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.021258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+21.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.