TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe8e5…c1c2

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
24
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Middle East, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 52 out of 100; worst Euroleague at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 21, 2026, EST1520%3 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$18.81
Abdul-Malik al-Houthi out as leader of the Houthi government before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$52
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
Will the Iranian regime fall before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT+426.3%+$213.5
Israel parliament dissolves by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.77
Israel withdraws from Syria before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$75
Will Netanyahu meet with MBS before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Israel parliament dissolves in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$21
Assad public appearance before 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$49.49
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST+456.5%+$228.23
Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST-100%-$28
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST+194.1%+$135.94
All 15 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 25, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Tottenham Hotspur wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Manchester City win again in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2024, EST-100%-$22
All 2 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Sep 7, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel win the 2025 EuroBasket Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$58
Euro Basket: Greece vs Israelbacked Israel · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$22
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 11, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Wimbledon: Sinner vs. Djokovic backed Djokovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$27
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$83.23
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.