Middle East · resolved market
Israel withdraws from Syria before April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c3064a3c1528ae130accd02a0e61089061182af601de8d5d2275679c23d12c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,466
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,896
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,466 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 4c | 2,258$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.96 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e5…c1c2backed Yes | 4c | 1,958$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fda…5b87backed Yes | 9c | 1,742$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.58 | 79 | 40.5%32 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66d6…50c7backed Yes | 4c | 1,423$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.73 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 6c | 1,041$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.46 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 2c | 995.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 7c | 888.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.69 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…591abacked Yes | 2c | 816.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b6…41a7backed Yes | 10c | 743.33$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb80f…cbf7backed Yes | 13c | 594.61$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x895e…d18dbacked Yes | 13c | 542.79$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 16c | 527.29$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.37 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ae…2324backed Yes | 14c | 499.83$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.26 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…be5ebacked Yes | 10c | 497.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4e…3cc1backed Yes | 5c | 233.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 13c | 213.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 5c | 211.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c0…e601backed Yes | 5c | 201$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5aa…eaa6backed Yes | 21c | 190.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe900…6cdcbacked Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4b…4554backed Yes | 18c | 139.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf359…65d3backed Yes | 21c | 102.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 15c | 102.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cd…a5f5backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06b6…42b4backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 12c | 86.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cb…3603backed No | 80c | 58.31$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.