TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xfd2b…8e50

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
421
Categories scored
27
Categories below 50
13

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 61 out of 100 (+0.10 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 61 out of 100; worst Fed Rates at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST10026%26 W · 74 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 100 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kenneth Walker III win the Super Bowl LX MVP?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$72.97
Patriots vs. Broncosbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$463Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$463.31
Bills vs. Broncosbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$43,771Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$43,770.74
Bills vs. Jaguarsbacked Jaguars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$490Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$490
Rams vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$2,365Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$2,365
Titans vs. Jaguarsbacked Titans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$21.25
Saints vs. Titansbacked Titans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$1,012Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$1,011.83
Broncos vs. Chiefsbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$20,741Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$20,740.66
Lions vs. Vikingsbacked Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$3,833Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$3,833.23
Cowboys vs. Commandersbacked Commanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$23,352Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$23,352.44
Patriots vs. Ravensbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$258Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST+260.7%+$673.11
Raiders vs. Texansbacked Raiders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$15,165Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$15,164.95
Chargers vs. Cowboysbacked Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$20,540Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+112.8%+$23,162.28
Bills vs. Brownsbacked Browns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$22,570Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$22,569.75
Bengals vs. Dolphinsbacked Dolphins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$29,600Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$29,600
Packers vs. Bearsbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$6,038Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+64.8%+$3,912.21
Eagles vs. Commandersbacked Commanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$8,120Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$8,119.69
Rams vs. Seahawksbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$26,395Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+381.7%+$100,755.86
Jets vs. Jaguarsbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$6,935Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$6,934.53
Raiders vs. Eaglesbacked Raiders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$5,125Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$5,125.34
Eagles vs. Chargersbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$241Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$240.86
Giants vs. Patriotsbacked Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$18,959Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$18,959.31
Broncos vs. Commandersbacked Commanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$34,729Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$34,729.06
Bills vs. Steelersbacked Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$439Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$438.88
Jaguars vs. Titansbacked Titans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$17,238Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$17,237.55
Showing 25 of 100 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST7146.5%33 W · 38 L+9.9wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+84.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 71 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$16,969Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$16,968.86
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$231Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$231.33
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$8,903Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$8,902.73
Will Kristi Noem be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$722Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+37%+$267.2
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$464Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$464.24
Will Eric Adams be removed as NYC mayor?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$352Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+31.7%+$111.43
Will Dan Bongino leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$602Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$601.77
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,402Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+114%+$1,597.86
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$3,712Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$3,712.19
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,590Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,590
Will Eric Adams drop out?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$2,166Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,166.11
Dan Bongino out as Deputy Director of the FBI by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$382Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+45.8%+$175.33
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$633Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$633.38
Will TikTok be on the App Store on May 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$631Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+205.1%+$1,294.05
Kilmar Abrego Garcia released from custody in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$35
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$9.63
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$64.74
Will Trump eliminate daylight saving time in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$167.92
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$105.46
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$7,375Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$7,375.22
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$143.51
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$89.9
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$1,050Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,049.95
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$14,743Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$14,742.73
Will Trump lower tariffs on China in April? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$347Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$347.49
Showing 25 of 71 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2025, EST5440.7%22 W · 32 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick33cpaid-17.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Movies — the 54 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 'Emilia Pérez' win 2 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST+53.6%+$24.44
Will 'The Brutalist' win 3 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$258Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST+163.3%+$421.73
Will "Anora" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$613Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$613.31
Will "The Brutalist" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$308Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$307.77
Will Mikey Madison win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$322Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST+285.2%+$917.38
Will Demi Moore win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$1,112Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST+208%+$2,313.69
Will Brady Corbet win Best Director at the 2025 Oscars for "The Brutalist"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$849Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$848.64
Will Sean Baker win Best Director at the 2025 Oscars for "Anora"?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$453Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$452.76
Will 'The Brutalist' win 2 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$12.9
Will "The Brutalist" win Best Cinematography at the 2025 Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$28.53
Will 'The Brutalist' win 1 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST+35.7%+$3.95
Will "Emilia Pérez" win Best International Feature Film at the 2025 Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST+39.2%+$6.75
Will "I'm Still Here" win Best International Feature Film at the 2025 Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$23.95
Will "Dune: Part Two" win Best Cinematography at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$15.36
Will "The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent" win Best Action Short Film at the 2025 Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST+53.8%+$31.5
Will "A Lien" win Best Action Short Film at the 2025 Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST+121.2%+$146.31
Will "Dune: Part Two" win Best Visual Effects at the 2025 Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$15.47
Will "Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes" win Best Visual Effects at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$19.6
Will "Dune: Part Two" win Best Sound at the 2025 Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$46.38
Will "A Complete Unknown" win Best Sound at the 2025 Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST+45.6%+$43.82
Will "Wicked" win Best Sound at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$27.03
Will "Porcelain War" win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 2025 Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$293Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST+57.8%+$169.17
Will "No Other Land" win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 2025 Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$148.56
Will "I Am Ready, Warden" win Best Documentary Short Film at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$110.35
Will "Sugarcane" win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$49.5
Showing 25 of 54 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT4835.4%17 W · 31 L+6.0wins+0.12per pick23cpaid+44%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Middle East — the 48 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$7,120Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+209.4%+$14,908.45
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$6,485Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+539.7%+$35,000.2
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$19,876Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$19,875.86
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$187,495Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$187,495.09
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$166
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$2,293Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+336.2%+$7,707.29
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$642Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$642.23
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$1,625Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,625.34
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$2,011Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,011.43
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$9,522Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+282.9%+$26,935.51
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$606Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$605.8
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$5,962Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,961.88
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$7,210Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$7,209.52
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$3,605Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+33.8%+$1,218.17
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$1,101Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,101.03
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$7,592Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+1,344.3%+$102,063.92
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$8,226Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$8,226.22
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$20,733Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$20,733.22
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$1,327Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$2,952.92
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$8,161Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+596.8%+$48,709.94
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$42,599Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$42,599.09
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.11
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$17,206Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$17,206.26
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$17.4
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$88.92
Showing 25 of 48 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 25, 2025, EDT3636.1%13 W · 23 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-16.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 36 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$4,400Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,399.97
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$8,273Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$8,273.47
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$3,089Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT+78.1%+$2,412.83
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$30,750Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT+87%+$26,764.41
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$16,073Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT+149.3%+$23,996.78
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$1,028Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,028.32
Will George Simion win by over 18%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$3,439Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,438.99
Will another candidate win?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$163Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$163.41
Will George Simion win by 12–18%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$7,365Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$7,364.86
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$8,144Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$8,144.5
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$5,746Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,745.88
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$185,041Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$185,040.72
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12,512Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$12,511.81
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$5,705Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,705.2
Will the next Government of Canada be led by another party or coalition?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$302Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$302.45
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.98
Will there not be a new Pope in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$158Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$92.61
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$463Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$462.6
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$9,952Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT+125.8%+$12,520.17
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$64.98
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$2,979Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,978.94
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$40,586Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+27%+$10,942.16
Liberals win majority in Canadian election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$2,332Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,331.95
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$98,666Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+29%+$28,571.76
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+235.1%+$112.96
Showing 25 of 36 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT1936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.08
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$830Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+33.5%+$278.08
Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$7,545Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$7,545.08
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$22,710Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$22,709.75
Will Abigail Spanberger win by 15-18%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+227.3%+$156.25
Will Jay Jones win the 2025 Virginia Attorney General election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$6,782Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+100.2%+$6,793.32
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$1,160Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$1,160.32
Will Trump endorse Andrew Cuomo for NYC Mayor?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$3,769Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST+166.9%+$6,291.08
Will Eric Adams drop out first?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$473Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$472.93
RFK Jr. confirmed as Health & Human Services Secretary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$18,290Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$18,289.54
Will Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST+183.9%+$127.66
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$21,012Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$21,011.52
Pete Hegseth confirmed as Secretary of Defense?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$3,537Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST-100%-$3,536.83
Will Jane Timken be appointed as the next Ohio senator?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST+40.8%+$11.37
Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST+117.3%+$23.77
Will Rick Scott be the next Senate Majority Leader?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$16.5
Will Republicans have between 215 and 219 seats in House after election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST-100%-$15.2
Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$6,596Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2024, EST-100%-$6,596.16
Will a candidate from another party win Nebraska US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$1,949Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2024, EST-100%-$1,948.8
All 19 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT166.3%1 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick18cpaid-80.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$24,222Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$24,222.05
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$68,566Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$68,565.55
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$15,020Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$15,020.27
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$22,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$21,999.94
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$6,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$6,499.98
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$13,335Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$13,334.87
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$2,888Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+215.5%+$6,224.5
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$58.35
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$7,437Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$7,436.72
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$657Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$657.26
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$14.56
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$705Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$705.24
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$1,995Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,995.23
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$14,211Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$14,210.63
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.83
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$16,537Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$16,536.6
All 16 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT1428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-46.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$24,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$24,000
Thunder vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$10,000
Spurs vs. Lakersbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$10,000
Nuggets vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$27,200Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+194.1%+$52,799.96
Heat vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$27,520Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$12,957.75
Trail Blazers vs. Jazzbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$23,200Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$16,799.95
Pacers vs. Mavericksbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$12,800Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$12,799.98
Cavaliers vs. Celticsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$24,400Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$24,400
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$66.38
Warriors vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$1,462Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,462.42
Heat vs. Cavaliersbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$3,408Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,408.1
Hawks vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT+34.2%+$10.11
Bucks vs. Pelicansbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$781Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$781.24
All 14 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+28%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$123Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+523.8%+$645.82
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$690Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+150.6%+$1,039.93
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$74.59
Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$352Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$351.65
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$321Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$321.05
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$9,430Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$9,429.71
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$1,565Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$1,564.76
Will Sam Altman settle with his sister before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$243Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$243
Will DeepSeek still be #1 Free app on Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$680Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2025, EST+177.8%+$1,208.77
All 9 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$25,594Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$25,594.03
Dodgers vs. Blue Jaysbacked Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$31,083Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$31,082.7
Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padresbacked San Diego Padres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12,219Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2025, EDT+65.6%+$8,016.82
New York Mets vs. Minnesota Twinsbacked New York Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$9,800Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2025, EDT+104.1%+$10,200
San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Philliesbacked San Francisco Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$9,600Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2025, EDT+108.3%+$10,399.99
Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Marinersbacked Texas Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$9,700Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$9,699.99
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Oriolesbacked Toronto Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$5,421Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT+122.3%+$6,627.37
Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardiansbacked Kansas City Royals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$23.4
Will Jersey Jerry complete the Immaculate Inning Challenge?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2024, EST-100%-$138.77
All 9 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+239.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2025, EDT850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+37%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Chess Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Chess — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Space Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Space — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-34.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Auburn win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$562Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT+31.1%+$174.88
Florida vs. Auburnbacked Auburn · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$37.35
All 2 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid win La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$451Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$450.6
Will Barcelona win La Liga?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$256Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$255.65
All 2 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 21, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tottenham Hotspur win the UEFA Europa League?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$244Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$244.2
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.31
All 2 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+68.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$13,396Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST+68.5%+$9,180.45
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Max Holloway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$29,999.94
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
TikTok removed from App Store by Monday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$27.28
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX IPO by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$89.02
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.17
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$1,583Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,582.56
All 1 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Golf — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
PGA Championship: Bryson DeChambeau vs. Brooks Koepkabacked Koepka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the November 2024 temperature increase be between 1.30-1.34°C?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2024, EST-100%-$15.18
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.