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Ukraine · resolved market

Trump admin announces cutting Ukraine aid by Friday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,885,981
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,850,019

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,885,981 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 263 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8c21…69debacked No0c2,107,362$3,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,193.13450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-22.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d4…9f1abacked No0c390,600$1,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,057.36333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-34.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0bb…fb5bbacked No0c339,179$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64f7…7e9cbacked No0c103,450$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c64…10a0backed No0c101,150$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f3…3622backed No0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1cb…d9d4backed No0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb3c…8402backed No0c99,990$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16d6…a64fbacked No0c99,990$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdd0…1d89backed No0c99,722$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd45…47e0backed No0c96,453$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5e8…45c9backed No0c78,786$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick8cpaid-12.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x37e2…0236backed No0c71,580$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a3d…257ebacked No0c59,468$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6477…707dbacked No0c56,572$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.651030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-51.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cf…0569backed No2c53,903$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85040%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8ba8…61b7backed No1c53,610$766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$765.85520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-69.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x387f…b621backed No0c53,420$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2b9…53dcbacked No0c52,500$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e22…5badbacked No0c51,639$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd2…db6dbacked No0c49,110$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd45d…c9f1backed No0c49,000$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe844…5894backed No0c48,580$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3147…5736backed No0c47,780$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed No1c46,154$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.02850%4 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+239.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe486…b079backed No0c43,530$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcef7…351bbacked No0c42,703$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20050%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0559…3a28backed No0c42,290$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9514…8026backed No1c41,999$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.83475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.34per pick41cpaid+41.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe19e…3401backed No0c38,747$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.99450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x526d…c918backed No0c34,160$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85ea…b481backed No0c31,000$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x860a…7252backed No0c30,018$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…8974backed No0c28,779$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22d1…6454backed No0c27,760$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No5c24,445$1,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,304.14729.7%7 W · 65 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-71.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfa05…ce6fbacked No1c20,714$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6abf…c6cebacked No0c20,665$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.8320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1064…0e19backed No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb1…d9ddbacked No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d37…b317backed No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45d1…7bddbacked No0c19,680$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ca6…f1c0backed No1c16,583$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8574…54babacked No0c16,514$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No1c16,435$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.215327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca92…e3b7backed No1c15,500$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x810b…74a5backed No0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x54ae…66c4backed No0c12,857$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1338…d361backed No0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ca0…fe47backed No0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x843a…8070backed No0c11,557$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.675541.8%23 W · 32 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick33cpaid-5.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe645…2ed2backed No1c11,245$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.2540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd9c…4815backed No1c11,001$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.9130%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x418b…f66abacked No2c10,689$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.58475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x273f…995abacked No0c10,210$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed No1c10,100$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.434818.8%9 W · 39 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick15cpaid-14.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xea8e…e2d3backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3d…76ddbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-28.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ec2…83a4backed No0c9,570$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x344f…bd80backed No1c8,842$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482429.2%7 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-37.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8117…0371backed No1c8,776$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5960%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes75c8,641$6,438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,202.943164.5%20 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b22…7974backed No1c8,187$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba36…27eabacked No4c8,115$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.46540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+400.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed No1c8,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick4cpaid-64.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ce9…b9cdbacked No0c7,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c35…f4a1backed No1c7,421$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab7f…c424backed No0c7,375$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6fd…8bc3backed No4c7,169$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.9115855.1%87 W · 71 L+13.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdcb4…49bfbacked No1c7,000$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfca8…8179backed No1c6,730$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7330%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3594…dc58backed No4c5,474$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2201526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-50.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe64d…4cd6backed No1c5,429$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd46f…47f4backed No1c5,360$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd602…bb4abacked No0c5,218$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8883…2e2dbacked No1c5,006$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc82e…9460backed No0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd42f…047dbacked No0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick24cpaid-45.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0d1…99e7backed No0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed No0c5,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15651.5%1 W · 64 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick7cpaid-85.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb558…3d55backed No1c4,940$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93fb…b82abacked No0c4,888$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a85…1034backed No0c4,737$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8242…ba44backed No0c4,390$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbceb…bd96backed No0c4,333$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9569…e859backed No1c4,333$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87a9…2362backed No0c4,310$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.24520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-53.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb44…8452backed No1c4,286$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84f8…0ff2backed No1c4,230$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.87850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-22.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc861…646dbacked No1c4,150$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed Yes41c4,128$1,693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,435.783537.1%13 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1d7…3548backed No1c4,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4ca…b890backed No1c3,897$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f65…45d2backed No1c3,875$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.69616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick44cpaid-73%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x37ad…c4d5backed No4c3,873$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.131241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+72.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cfe…5e2fbacked No54c3,729$2,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,025.161442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b66…002bbacked No14c3,723$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.72728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7e7…21a8backed No1c3,700$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2828…1e68backed No0c3,365$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b83…e97abacked No1c3,349$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.