TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb747…b050

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
440
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: World Politics, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 58 out of 100; worst Venezuela at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 23, 2026, EST11247.3%53 W · 59 L+9.7wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+2.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
World Politics — the 112 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Henri Bontenbal become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$1,054Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$1,053.74
Will PVV win 33 or more seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$6,121Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST+68.3%+$4,181.38
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$2,000Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+150%+$2,999.99
Will GreenLeft–Labour win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$2,805Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$2,804.78
Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$7,102Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$7,102.25
Will ANO get between 30% and 33% of the vote in the Czech election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$255Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$255.45
Will PAS win by greater than >16% of the vote?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$4,738Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,737.96
Will PAS win by between 8-12% of the vote?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$41.95
Will PAS win a majority of seats in Moldova elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$1,514Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,514.06
Will PAS win by between 4-8% of the vote?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.83
Will the Party of Action and Solidarity win the most seats in the 2025 Moldova parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$444Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$443.75
Will SP win the fourth most seats in the Norway election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$76.44
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Norwegian parliamentary election be between 75 and 78%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 15, 2025, EDT+41.1%+$25.9
Green Party (MDG) wins 4% or more of vote in Norwegian election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$1,128Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,127.83
Will the Red Bloc win by 16 or more seats?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$1,033Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,032.53
Will the Red Bloc win by 0–3 seats?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$143.4
Will Erna Solberg become the next Prime Minister of Norway?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$1,424Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,423.69
Will Jonas Gahr Støre become the next Prime Minister of Norway?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$2,013Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,012.7
Will Ap win the second most seats in the Norway election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$45.9
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$683Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$683.33
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$103,500Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT+123.5%+$127,860.53
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$6,150Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT+143.9%+$8,850
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.18
Will Kim Moon-soo win more than 40% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$19,220Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+64.4%+$12,370.48
Will Lee Jun-seok win between 8% and 11% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$18,727Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+101.9%+$19,078.45
Showing 25 of 112 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST7041.4%29 W · 41 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 70 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$5,058Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$5,058.44
US forces in Venezuela by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$5,415Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$5,414.56
Will Donald Trump visit India in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+40.8%+$24.98
Will Donald Trump visit France in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$3,940Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+78.6%+$3,098.79
Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$3,488Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+32.4%+$1,130.65
Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$9,258Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+30.4%+$2,816.18
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12,634Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+67.8%+$8,562.2
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$7,953Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+82.6%+$6,571.36
Will Zohran Mamdani win by >9%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$16,396Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$16,395.85
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$7,886Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$7,885.9
Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$2,327Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,327.27
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$22,675Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$22,675.28
Will Adelita Grijalva win AZ-07 by between 30% and 35%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20,828Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$20,827.78
Will Adelita Grijalva win AZ-07 by between 40% and 45%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$57,335Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT+69.8%+$40,012.52
Will Adelita Grijalva win AZ-07 by less than 30%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$1,910Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,909.77
Will Adelita Grijalva win AZ-07 by between 35% and 40%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$324Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$323.88
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$112.44
Will Eric Adams drop out?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$9,323Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT+50.9%+$4,746.04
Will Eric Adams drop out by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$2,881Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT+206.7%+$5,954.05
Will turnout be between 1100000 and 1200000 in the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$13,282Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT+90.6%+$12,040.13
Will turnout be between 1000000 and 1100000 in the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$14,350Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT+75.2%+$10,787.7
Will turnout be between 900000 and 1000000 in the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$224Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$223.87
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 6% and 9% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$3,472Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,472.27
Will Brad Lander finish third in the 2025 New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$143Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$76.96
Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be greater than 9% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$4,756Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$1,849.61
Showing 25 of 70 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST5733.3%19 W · 38 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
F1 — the 57 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$10,374Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$10,374.11
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$5,326Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$5,326.04
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$15,460Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+168.9%+$26,105.35
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$308Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$307.99
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$521Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$481.06
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$1,596Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,596.35
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.54
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$2,600Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,600.02
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$3,527Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT+430.2%+$15,170.03
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$1,955Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,954.76
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$40.88
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$1,321Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,321.35
F1 Italian GP: Verstappen vs. Piastribacked Piastri · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$1,605Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,605.45
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$8,874Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$8,874.28
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$8,534Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$8,533.65
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Belgian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$7,330Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2025, EDT+186.5%+$13,670
F1 Belgian Grand Prix: Safety Car? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$978Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$380.45
Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$1,452Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,451.9
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$7,939Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$7,938.7
Hamilton vs. Leclercbacked Leclerc · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$3,323Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,323.45
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix Pole?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$3,502Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,501.89
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$14,860Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2025, EDT+59.6%+$8,856.84
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$3,178Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,178.28
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix pole?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$1,269Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT+212.5%+$2,696.2
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Spanish Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$1,950Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,950
Showing 25 of 57 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jan 14, 2026, EST5236.5%19 W · 33 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+54.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Weather — the 52 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 2025 be the second hottest year on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$2,518Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$2,517.6
Will October 2025 be the 3rd hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$311Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+96.1%+$298.41
2025 September third hottest on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$1,493Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+181.1%+$2,703.65
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in September 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$10,081Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+72%+$7,254.05
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in September 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$3,047Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+26.4%+$804.64
2025 September second hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$8,582Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+242.6%+$20,820.69
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in August 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$44.62
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.10ºC in August 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,611Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,610.86
Will global temperature increase by between 0.95–0.99ºC in July 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$2,761Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,760.82
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00–1.04ºC in July 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$15,096Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$15,096.37
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05–1.10ºC in July 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$41,920Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT+49.8%+$20,875.18
Will global temperature increase by between 0.90–0.94ºC in July 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$1,132Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,132.46
2025 May hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$4,098Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,097.63
Will global temperature increase by between 1.22-1.26ºC in April 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$305Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2025, EDT+1,543.5%+$4,705.03
Will global temperature increase by between 1.37-1.41ºC in April 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$151.9
Will global temperature increase by between 1.32-1.36ºC in April 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$515Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$515.38
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.22ºC in April 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2025, EDT+1,566.7%+$1,051.09
Will global temperature increase by between 1.27-1.31ºC in March 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$520Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$520.27
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20-1.24ºC in February 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$1,807Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,807.47
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25-1.29ºC in January 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$3,113Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2025, EST-100%-$3,112.94
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.34ºC in January 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$1,958Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2025, EST+447.4%+$8,761.6
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20-1.24ºC in January 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2025, EST+33.3%+$15.83
Will global temperature increase by between 1.30-1.34ºC in January 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$3,880Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2025, EST-100%-$3,880.21
2025 January hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$15,161Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2025, EST+80.1%+$12,146.83
Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.20-1.24°C?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$21,345Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST+79.7%+$17,009.85
Showing 25 of 52 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2025, EDT5145.1%23 W · 28 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Music — the 51 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$1,158Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,157.68
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$30,238Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+335.1%+$101,342.96
Will Israel be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$621Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+580.9%+$3,606.4
Will Austria be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$313Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$313.36
Will Sweden be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$18,449Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$18,448.74
Will Finland be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.71
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$1,434Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,434.34
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$220.34
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$587Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$587.15
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$17,359Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$17,358.72
Will Albania finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$25,636Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+70.8%+$18,161.45
Will Estonia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$12,040Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$12,039.53
Will Germany finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$1,248Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,247.84
Will Italy finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$397Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$396.91
Will Ukraine finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$184Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$184.01
Will Greece finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$17,308Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+215.7%+$37,329.18
Will Albania finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$2,061Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,060.96
Will Greece finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$215Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$214.56
Will Estonia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$54,996Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$54,996.12
Will Finland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$63,141Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$63,140.96
Will Finland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$12,736Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$12,735.91
Will Netherlands finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$879Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT+566.7%+$4,979.05
Will Lithuania finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$174Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$173.87
Will Poland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$14,352Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$14,351.8
Will Malta finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$520Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$520
Showing 25 of 51 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST3537.1%13 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 35 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$11,853Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+198.5%+$23,529.03
Will Trump meet with Putin by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$3,400Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$1,600
Will Trump and Zelenskyy hug on Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$1,058Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,057.72
Will Trump say "Biden" 5+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$11,261Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT+47%+$5,290.1
Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 15+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$1,476Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT+157.6%+$2,327.03
Will Trump say "Suit" during Zelensky events on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$1,513Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,513.07
Will Trump say "Hottest Country" during Zelensky events on August 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$5,388Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT+86%+$4,633.03
Will Trump say "Crimea" or "Donetsk" during Zelensky events on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$2,880Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,879.8
Will Trump say "Rare Earth" or "Mineral" during Zelensky events on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.51
Will Trump say "Marco" or "Rubio" during Zelensky events on August 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$1,421Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT+187.8%+$2,667.51
Will Trump say "Thousand / Million / Billion" 12+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$10,727Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$10,727.3
Will Trump say "Putin" 5+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$882Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$881.76
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" 3+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT+122.2%+$98.84
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Zelensky events on August 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,031Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,031.08
Will Trump say "Pakistan" during Zelensky events on August 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$258Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$258
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$5,026Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,026.47
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$6,153Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+111.3%+$6,846.66
Will Trump sign mineral deal without Zelenskyy apology?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$3,536Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,535.81
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11,237Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+77.4%+$8,695.25
Energy infrastructure ceasefire in Ukraine in March? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$4,052Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,052.07
Will Ukraine agree to pay back U.S. aid before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$9,647Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$9,647.36
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$37,405Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$37,404.8
Zelenskyy puts on a suit by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$728Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST-100%-$727.67
Trump announces cutting all military aid to Ukraine aid before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$1,035Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2025, EST+174.4%+$1,804.01
Trump admin announces cutting Ukraine aid by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$1,693Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2025, EST+143.9%+$2,435.78
Showing 25 of 35 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2025, EST3336.4%12 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-43.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 33 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Andrew Cuomo get between 30% and 35% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$51.76
Will Zohran Mamdani win 4 boroughs in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+53.8%+$35
Will Zohran Mamdani win all 5 boroughs in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$282Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$281.76
Will Zohran Mamdani get between 50% and 60% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$556Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$556
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$4,507Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$4,506.81
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$28,500Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+75.4%+$21,500
Will Andrew Cuomo win Staten Island?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$656Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$655.59
Will Zohran Mamdani win Staten Island in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$14.55
Will Zohran Mamdani win The Bronx in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,022Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+40.3%+$411.82
Will Zohran Mamdani win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$677Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$677.04
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$10,799Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+44.3%+$4,779.27
Will Eric Adams win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$19.79
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$8,574Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+41.2%+$3,530.57
Will Eric Adams drop out first?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$7,106Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT+45.8%+$3,256.96
Will Zohran Madani’s vote share be greater than 32% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$941Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT+79.2%+$745.45
Will Zohran Madani’s vote share be between 28% and 32% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$572Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$571.87
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 11% and 12% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$6,397Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$6,396.75
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 12% and 13% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$8,998Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT+85.3%+$7,675.23
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be greater than 13% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$45.38
Bernie Sanders votes to confirm RFK Jr?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$25,516Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2025, EST+37.6%+$9,583.58
Will Fischer win Nebraska senate election by 7+ points?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20,222Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2024, EST+101.1%+$20,442
Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$1,431Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2024, EST-100%-$1,430.91
Will a Republican win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$2,418Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2024, EST-100%-$2,417.59
Senate control after 2024 election?backed Democrats · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$1,820Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2024, EST-100%-$1,820
Will a Democrat win Ohio US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$8,396Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$8,395.81
Showing 25 of 33 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-46.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20,863Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20,863.12
Israel strikes Iran before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$125.79
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$3,667Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,667.09
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$5,326Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,326.46
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$5,912Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+79.6%+$4,705.14
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$5,185Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT+92.2%+$4,780.05
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$737Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$736.95
Khamenei seen in public before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$11,793Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT+43.9%+$5,171.55
US military action against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$23,493Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+87.2%+$20,479.1
Israel intercepts Greta Thunberg's ship before reaching Gaza?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$146.43
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$1,440Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2025, EST-100%-$1,440
Israel military strike against Iran in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$763Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST+44.9%+$342.88
Israel military response against Iran today?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$3,380Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 2, 2024, EDT+72.2%+$2,438.54
Iran military response by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$1,750Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2024, EDT-100%-$1,750
Iran military response by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 10, 2024, EDT-100%-$132.79
Iran Nuke by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$325Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$325
Israel military action against Iran by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2024, EDT-100%-$96.4
Iran response to Israel by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2024, EDT-100%-$39.77
Iran response to Israel by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2024, EDT-100%-$155
All 19 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST60%0 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Dec 23, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Negative GDP growth in Q3 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,443Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+111.4%+$1,607
Negative GDP growth in Q2 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$11,179Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$11,179.28
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
GPT-5 released in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$7,984Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+59%+$4,712.01
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Switzerland win Group A?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2024, EDT-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Sep 18, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Fed cut interest rates 1 time in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$1,980Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2024, EDT-100%-$1,980
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.